Pourquoi et comment investir dans l’or et l’argent ? Plus qu’un placement d’opportunité, il s’agit avant tout de sécuriser le pouvoir d’achat de votre épargne contre l’érosion monétaire et les conséquences de la crise systémique mondiale, tout en déjouant les pièges que réserve le marché de l’or et de l’argent, à l’investisseur non averti.
(snip) On Tuesday, March 31st, Deutsche Bank (DB) amazed everyone even more, by delivering a massive 850,000 ounces, or 850 contracts worth of the yellow metal. By the close of business, even after this massive delivery, about 15,050 April contracts, or 1.5 million ounces, still remained to be delivered. Most of these, of course, are unlikely to be the obligations of Deutsche Bank. But, the fact that this particular bank turned out to be one of the biggest short sellers of gold, is a surprise. Most people presumed that the big COMEX gold short sellers are HSBC (HBC) and/or JP Morgan Chase (JPM). That may be true. However, it is abundantly clear that they are not the only game in town. Closely connected institutions, it seems, do not have to worry about acting irresponsibly, in taking on more obligations than they can fulfill. Mysteriously, on the very same day that gold was due to be delivered to COMEX long buyers, at almost the very same moment that Deutsche Bank was giving notice of its deliveries, the ECB happened to have “sold” 35.5 tons, or a total of 1,141,351 ounces of gold, on March 31, 2009. Convenient, isn’t it? Deutsche Bank had to deliver 850,000 ounces of physical gold on that day, and miraculously, the gold appeared out of nowhere.
la bce roule pour la deutsche bank.. cool.. ça explikerait très bien ce communiqué BCE ( vente de 35.5 Tonnes d'or) abrupt d'hier, tombé comme un cheveu sur la soupe ..
juste une (petite) remarque.. les 2 banques grosses shorteuses d'or et d'argent sur le comex sont bien des banques us .. puisque le rapport bancaire us fait bien la distinction entre les banques us.. et les banques non us..mais deutshe B pourrait fort bien etre l'un des 4 plus gros vendeurs à découvert d'or ..
Incidentally, yesterday there was a rather dramatic drawdown reported in both the gold and silver Comex warehouse numbers. Gold stocks dropped by a total of 371,000 ounces with over 200,000 of that coming from the registered category. Silver showed a HUGE drawdown of 2.18 million ounces with 1.2 million of that coming out of the registered category. The bulk of both the gold and silver drawdowns came out of the HSBC warehouses. I am not quite sure what to make of this but it was way of the ordinary and bears watching. There still remains about 2.7 million ounces of registered gold sitting around up there. April gold deliveries have now began to drastically tail off but so far we are over 1 million ounces taken this month. Only 3,555 contracts remain outstanding in the April contract as of yesterday or 355,500 ounces of potential stoppers but after today’s sell off, I suspect that number will be reduced quite a bit.
Bill Further to Bryant’s comment in yesterday’s Midas : « Yesterday was 1st delivery day for the April contact of COMEX gold. Total deliveries were 8,867 contracts. The interesting detail is that 8,500 of the deliveries were made by the Deutsche Bank. This is 850,000 ounces of gold which is a significant number. In a free market, I can’t see why the German bank would deliver such a large round number of contracts. Could Obama have brokered a deal with Merkel in which Germany delivers gold to the COMEX and the USA does something for Germany instead? Could this be another swap of Treasury gold for German gold, which GATA suspects happened previously with our West Point gold? » END It should not be forgotten that Deutsche Bank got over 11 bln $ in payments and collateral postings (of essentially US taxpayer bail out money ) via AIG as listed in this AIG document. http://www.aig.com/aigweb/internet/en/files/CounterpartyAttachments031809_tcm385-155645.pdf So one could speculate that there was perhaps some kind of deal struck during the AIG bail out for some of the recipient banks, that they might give a little quid pro quo help in capping the gold market. 850'000 ozs is only 780 mill $ at 922 $/oz and comparatively small change for the 11 bln they might have lost if AIG had been allowed to fail. Strong leverage ! We can look for a few more deals along those lines to surface from some of the other suspects involved in the AIG fiasco in the next few weeks ? Best Alan Deutsche Bank was a defendant in Reg Howe's lawsuit against The Gold Cartel.
tiens donc, le comex va créer 2 nouveaux mini contrats gold et silver futures.. sans possibilité de se faire délivrer le physique !! le tout en remplacement des mini contrats actuels qui posaient problèmes .. à ce sujet
pour le moment ça ne concerne que les mini contrats.. mais c'est une "avancée" fort instructive
inutile de vous repréciser ( et Butler l'explique fort bien ) qu'un marché - matières tangibles -de futures qui fonctionne uniquement en cash settlement, ne mérite pas son nom .. et qu'il doit donc perdre le "privilége" de fixer les cours au plan international ds ces conditions ce sont les prix du réel, du physique qui vont prendre le pas sur ceux des cours papier, dont la seule légitimité, était justement ces fameuses livraisons ..
Il reste un point pas clair. Il me semble que lorsqu'un long demande livraison de son contrat, il y a tirage au sort parmi les shorts de celui qui devra livrer le contrat. Il est impossible que l'ensemble des ~9 000 tirages soit tombé sur DB, quid donc des 3 autres gros ?
Il reste un point pas clair. Il me semble que lorsqu'un long demande livraison de son contrat, il y a tirage au sort parmi les shorts de celui qui devra livrer le contrat. Il est impossible que l'ensemble des ~9 000 tirages soit tombé sur DB, quid donc des 3 autres gros
pas de tirage au sort Dup.. si j'ai acheté un long à db et que lui demande livraison, c'est bien lui qui devra s'exécuter
tout les jours, la CME publie le bulletin en pdf , avec les détails nominatifs du jour et le cumul de livraison du contrat-mois à échéance:
voir les colonnes respectives DEL et ACCEP pour respectivement gold et silver The "issuer" , c'est le vendeur ,et the "stopper" est celui qui prend livraison . DEL = short positions "stopped", which now needs to deliver gold. ACC = long positions who issued delivery notices.
on a donc 85000 demandes livraison cumulées pour le contrat avril.. dont 10.000 le dernier jour et 8500 pour deutshe bank
mais, comme c'était ya 2 jours, la notice de livraison est partie dans les oubliettes .. et ils se gardent bien de mettre à disposition du public les archives daily des notices de delivery
Adrian Douglas qui suit AU QUOTIDIEN et en parallèle - les délivery notices - et les reports quotidiens des mouvements stocks comex note que depuis un bon moment c'est totalement incohérent
on avait d'ailleurs commencé à voir poindre le truc avec les livraisons dec 2008 .. ( voir archives en barre de navigation ) qui auraient du vider 50% des stocks dealers .. rien de tel n'apparut ds les "fichues" stats des inventaires comex
d'ailleurs à ce sujet, un excellent topo de confirmation :
Citation:
What does it all mean? First, there are indications that the seller side of futures contracts (such as Deutsche Bank in April) are having a difficult time making good on their commitments. Second, the information reported by the Comex regarding physical inflows and outflows is looking more and more like a convenient fiction. Third, there is some doubt as to whether there is gold in inventory -- as there absolutely should be -- to match existing warehouse receipts. Fourth, the Comex warehouse is one of the most secure forms of gold investment in the world. If they can't be trusted, what does that say about ETFs, pooled accounts, futures, forwards, options, and all the other forms of "paper gold" out there? Fifth, if it becomes clearer that there is no physical supply to meet physical demand, the dollar price of gold could go much higher.
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