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probable point bas du silver, projections de la prochaine jambe de hausse

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Messageprobable point bas du silver, projections de la prochaine jambe de hausse
par g.sandro Jeu 18 Nov 2010 - 23:46

Bottom in Silver Probably in Place, Projections on the Current Leg

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/hemingway_table.cfm?pid=8889

Bottom in Silver Probably in Place,
Projections on the Current Leg


By Erez Davidi & Dan Davidi
From comparative analysis on previous silver up legs, the following can be concluded with high probability.
First, for the information we gathered from previous legs charts.
On average:

  • every leg since the beginning of the bull market had two corrections,
  • the top of each leg was 60% above the top of the previous leg,
  • the top of each leg was 75% above the breaking point,
  • the top of each leg was 35% above the top of the last correction, and
  • the top of each correction became the support of the next one.

Year
Number of major corrections
Magnitude of the corrections
% Rise from Breaking Point
% Rise from the top correction B to the final top
% Rise compare to the previous leg top
2004
1
10%
57%
24%

2006
2
11% - 9%
103%
53%
79%
2008
2
16% - 9%
65%
29%
41%
2010
2 so far
8% - 15% ?



Average
10.50%
75%
35%
60%
Projection of current leg per average of previous legs
$ 33.40
$ 39.40
$ 34.30
Projection of current leg per range of previous legs
$30 to $38.8
$36.4 to $44.9
$30 to $38.2

Silver has probably finished correcting yesterday. Typically, correction B tends to hit bottom on corrections A’s top. Yesterday, silver has touched correction A’s top and has changed direction, recovering most of its intra-day losses. Moreover, most of the mining stocks filled their gaps. This leads us to the conclusion that silver has probably bottomed.
Projections:

  • Projecting from the previous tops, we come to a possible current top between $30 to $38.2.
  • Projecting from the top of the highest mid corrections in previous legs, the silver top is projected to be between $36.4 and $44.9.
  • The breaking point in the current leg was about $19. Projecting from the range of previous tops from the breaking point will put silver between $29 and $38.8.

But considering the much-improved technical and fundamental current situation, it can be expected that the current top might exceed all previous tops in percentage terms. Some of the improvements are:

  • Low interest rates
  • The sovereign debt crisis
  • China’s new dominance in the precious metals markets
  • QE in many countries
  • The dollar’s fragile situation as a world reserve currency
  • During the previous legs, silver was in its first stage of the bull market. Now it is in its second, which is steeper.
  • The appearance of quite a few new closed-end physical funds and ETFs.
  • The decreasing of Comex shorts by the industrials and bullion banks in the face of massive rise in price. Can we expect the short squeeze to accelerate?
  • The new position limits instituted by Congress.
  • The silver manipulation investigation and the growing awareness to silver and gold manipulation
  • Seasonality is not supporting a top in November

All the above are guaranteeing a very interesting winter.
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