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Pourquoi et comment investir dans l’or et l’argent ? Plus qu’un placement d’opportunité, il s’agit avant tout de sécuriser le pouvoir d’achat de votre épargne contre l’érosion monétaire et les conséquences de la crise systémique mondiale, tout en déjouant les pièges que réserve le marché de l’or et de l’argent, à l’investisseur non averti.


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argent métal /2 analyses très pertinentes

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Messageargent métal /2 analyses très pertinentes
par g.sandro Sam 18 Déc 2010 - 0:41

2 analyses très pertinentes:1° Spectacular Silver… Bonkers Here We Come!

Midas est toujours lucide, mais ce soir, il aborde des arguments distincts dont l'un m'a bcp touché, nous le devons à James Mc, je je ne connaissais pas...Bill Murphy a très bien fait de le publier dans son Midas: je vous laisse réfléchir à ces quelques réflexions

Citation :
This Gold Cartel drill of mauling gold and silver going into the Comex opening is becoming quite tedious. It is vintage PLAN A stuff, but set in motion a couple of hours later than the norm. Gold rallied to $1377, while silver was up 40 cents when the cabal forces attacked. Gold was taken down to $1369 and silver to $28.70. The good news is neither has gaps to fill below the market because of the raid.

For a while last night I thought silver really was about to go bonkers. For silver to put in that kind of rally following a margin increase call is extremely bullish. In addition to what appears to be a panic margin increase, the Comex silver inventory is disappearing and now has a 103 handle. The lowest inventory I can recall was around 98 million ounces. That is one number to stay on top of, which Adrian does so well for us.

What a day in the end. All rallies were sold and all dips were bought. Going into the close it was the dip buyers who won the day. Both markets made new highs late, with silver leading the way … and if I might say so myself, it did so in spectacular fashion! It soared late, taking out the highs of last night on the bell. Gold popped in the last minutes of trading, which took silver to $29.27 before it sold off.

It was pound the table time on silver yesterday and it is pound the table time on silver today. There is no telling what it can do price-wise on any given day ahead over the coming weeks.

The AM Fix of $1374.75 showed some pep, while the PM Fix was softer at $1368.50.

The gold open interest fell 9316 contracts to 583,741, but the silver open interest rose 533 contracts to 130,865. The liquidation in the gold pit has picked up steam.

Trader of Commitments Report

*The large specs decreased their longs by 3,156 contracts and decreased shorts by 419.

*The commercials reduced longs by 791 contracts and reduced shorts by 1,480.

*The small specs increased longs by 542 contracts and reduced shorts by 1,506.


*The large specs decreased longs by 9,587 contracts and increased shorts by 2,969.

*The commercials increased longs by 3,585 contracts and decreased shorts by 6,953.

*The small specs decreased longs by 1,409 contracts and decreased shorts by 3,427.

Silver continues to find support below $29 and is building a base to blow through $30 and stay above that level…


James Mc…

Casino Royale, aka CME

There's no doubt the CME serves and protects cabal cronies. This latest silver margin hike, the third in the past month, was strategically timed to enter into the 2 week thinly-traded holiday season. It also virtually eliminates small spec players, since it will now take $20K or more in an account just to think about trading one contract. Raising margins on silver is very odd considering the sideways trade that's developed, along with the tepid open interest. This could be more about preparing for the March contract roll and settlement. I wouldn't be surprised to see a series of margin increases all the way up to the end of February. In the mean time the next two weeks could see various shenanigans as desperate shorts (both of them) attempt to take advantage of the CME's holiday gift given to them. If they fail on this one then 2011 could start with a bang.

I compared silver to other commodity leverage rates. As you would guess silver is now among the lowest leverage out there.

Gold - 22.5 - 1

Platinum- 17.2 - 1

Copper- 16.0 - 1

Lumber- 15.8 - 1

Silver- 13.7 - 1

The CME should be forced to explain why they sometimes allow leverage of 40-1 or more, while other times being intolerant of 16-1. They won't, because casino secrets are comparable to national security in priority. As always, whenever anybody acts this desperate you should be salivating at the prospect of their failure.
James Mc

Silver is king, Go Gold !
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Dernière édition par g.sandro le Sam 18 Déc 2010 - 1:34, édité 2 fois




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Message2°Relative Values; c'est SANS intégrer LES STOCKS, sinon, ce serait encore +
par g.sandro Sam 18 Déc 2010 - 1:27

Relative Values, c'est une analyse qui part de la production annuelle, donc SANS intégrer LES STOCKS, sinon, ce serait encore bien plus spectaculaire...!!!

Source Midas, là encore: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

Vous verrez, c'est captivant, mais j'attire votre attention sur un point crucial que j'ai souvent souligné... tout l'or extrait depuis que l'histoire s'écrit RESTE, il a juste changé de mains...Concernant le Silver, vous qui nous lisez savez forcément que les stocks sont extrêmement bas, (Silver above ground est PLUS RARE que l'OR), qu'ils s'épuisent chaque année un peu plus du fait de la production inférieure à la demande...alors à la lumière de ce préambule personnel, lisez attentivement ce qui suit et qui ne l'intègre absolument pas...


Citation :
Relative Values,..

I’ve put a little analysis together in relation to annual
production, looking at relative values for the precious metals in comparison to
a few of their tangible peers; Wheat (food), copper (infrastructure/industry)
and oil (energy). The outcome was quite illuminating to say the least!

I have analysed the annual production against price for each commodity, and
broken it down per capita.

I have also assumed a global population of 7 bln people.
Wheat (food):
Global annual production is about 680 million tonnes, which equates to circa
0.097 tonnes per capita,..
Assuming a price of £190/tonne (present UK Feed Wheat price), this equates to
about £19/capita, aka $29/capita,..
Copper (infrastructure/industry):
Global annual production in the region of 15 million tonnes, which equates to
circa 0.0021 tonnes per capita,..
Assuming a present price of $9,000/tonne, this equates to circa
Oil (energy):
Global annual production is about 32 bln barrels, which equates to circa 4.5
Assuming a present price of $90/barrel, equates to circa $405/capita!..
Oil: $405/capita
Wheat: $29/capita
Copper: $19/capita
Wow! We can see where your Average Joe’s priorities lie. No wonder no one has
to work in the Middle East!

Now let’s look at gold and silver:
Global annual production is roughly 2,400 tonnes - 76,800,000 ounces, which
equates to about 0.011 oz/capita.
Assuming a price of $1,380/oz, equates to circa $15/capita,..

Global annual production is about 710 million ounces, which equates to some
0.10 oz/capita.
Assuming a price of $29/oz, equates to circa $3/capita!..

Let’s add the precious metals to the table:
Oil: $405/capita
Wheat: $29/capita
Copper: $19/capita
Silver: $3/capita

Of course almost any academic could happily pick massive holes in this simple analysis. In reality there are numerous inputs that determine actual relative value for tangibles against each other. However it’s results are illuminating and there are 2 important points that stick out for me here:

1) The first is that clearly at present utilising income on the acquisition
of monetary metals is of lowest priority to the average person. In annual
spending terms, it seems energy comes a massive first with food and
infrastructure, second and third. In normal times this could be argued to make eminent sense, as these three are directly associated to standard of living.
But we are not in normal times.

We are presently living under the shadow of a collapsed monetary system and are in the early throws of a multi-generational monetary crisis.
It is becoming increasingly obvious that the Global Fiat Dollar Standard is flawed and breaking down. It’s only main paper alternative the Euro
is being rightly recognised for being equally as flawed.

This is leading to increasing imbalances within the global financial system, one of which is a seemingly unified desire across the currency spectrum for colossal devaluation.

This problem is not getting better but is in fact starting to accelerate.
Complex and outrageous new monetary tools are being utilised like Quantitative Easing in order to retain the Status Quo and keep the house from collapse.

But as yet no sustainable cure has materialised that will rescue the system in it’s current structure. It is therefore not unreasonable to expect priorities to change and the desire to preserve wealth and subsequently retain standard of living will likely mean a increasing move out of the paper mess and into the monetary metals for security.

2) It’s not hard to see a massive imbalance here. Whether you consider silver a monetary commodity or an industrial commodity, you can see that it’s value on this measure is completely out of sink with it’s peers.

In comparison to gold, it could be argued to be some 5 times undervalued, and if compared to copper over 6 times undervalued!

Considered with the fact that annual production of silver against annual demand has been running a well advertised deficit for some 20 years makes this all the more perplexing.

This is just another measure that shows that silver is perhaps the most undervalued tangible asset in the world.

With it’s demand soaring and the monetary crisis unfolding, it would be a brave man betting on this gross imbalance continuing indefinitely!
(Live from ‘The Scarborough Bullion Desk’)

Silver is king, Go Gold !
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