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le cours de l'argent métal se décorrèle enfin de celui de l'or / Adrian Douglas

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Messagele cours de l'argent métal se décorrèle enfin de celui de l'or / Adrian Douglas
par marie Mar 8 Fév 2011 - 15:48

vous l'aviez sans doute remarqué .. depuis un moment, l'argent métal superforme l'or en toutes circonstances ... cad qu'il monte d'avantage que l'or ... mais baisse moins que celui ci , lorsque l'or est attaqué .. ce qui est tout à fait inédit

cette étude montre que depuis sept 2010, les choses ont en effet évolué sur l'argent métal .. et que nos suspects habituels , n'arrivent plus à le tenir en laisse du cours de l'or.. avec pour corrollaire un ratio or argent sur des niveaux historiquement bas ... et qui vont être enfoncés ...

le tout en relation avec un shortage d'argent physique totalement inédit .. puisque la backwardation est totale ( sur toutes les échéances de fev 2011 à dec 2015)

https://marketforceanalysis.com/resources/Published-Articles/Silver-Breaks-its-Golden-Shackles.pdf



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Dernière édition par marie le Dim 27 Mar 2011 - 23:29, édité 1 fois

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MessageRe: le cours de l'argent métal se décorrèle enfin de celui de l'or / Adrian Douglas
par marie Mar 8 Fév 2011 - 16:09

et plus précisément sur la backwardation inédite de l'argent métal

www.lemetroplecafe.com


Some comments over the weekend about silver and backwardation…
Silver is close to full backwardation

Bill,
In the later part of January, I noticed that silver was in partial backwardation. The January contract had a higher price than the February contract which had a higher price than the March contract. Silver was in partial backwardation for Jan., Feb., and March indicating strong physical demand.
January 2011 silver then went off the board leaving Feb. silver with a price still greater then March silver at the beginning of February. This was unusual, but nothing earth shaking.
However, I noticed that on Thursday, 2/3, silver went into almost complete backwardation at the Comex. The backwardation is still evident on Friday, 2/4/11. Here is the link to the WSJ Comex silver prices.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3023-fut_metal-futures.html?mod=topnav_2_3000
Feb 2011 silver has a price of 29.064 which is greater than Mar 2011 with a price of 29.059. April 2011 and May 2011 are the only 2 months not in backwardation. You will notice that July 2011 has a higher price than Sept. 2011 which has a higher price than Dec. 2011 and on down the line to July 2014.
Many people have speculated that silver could never go into backwardation like this. Well, here it is in black, white, and green. The intelligence that you received previously about hedge funds taking delivery or attempting to take delivery may be the real deal. Maybe if the Sprott silver fund could buy another 15 million ounces, we could go into full backwardation like cotton and world sugar.
The current partial backwardation in silver is something that has never been seen in the silver market in recent years, possibly ever. A case could be made that the physical silver market is tighter now than any other time in recent history. The next few weeks should be very interesting.
Paul Yusem
www.thegoldandsilveranalyst.com
From Gene Arensberg…
Near Zero Contango in COMEX Silver Futures


HOUSTON -- We are in the process of pouring over the data from this week, and just below is something we are going to be hearing a lot more about in the coming days and weeks. As of Friday, February 4, 2011, there was near zero contango in the COMEX silver futures market.
More in a moment, but first, here is this week’s closing table.

Note the very strong outperformance of silver to gold this week. There is likely a very good reason for it.
No Contango in Silver
Contango, where the spot price of a commodity is lower than the following futures contracts, is the normal condition in the precious metals futures markets. Contango is a sign that a commodity is in ample or adequate supply.
Backwardation means that the cash or spot price is higher than the futures price for the same commodity. Backwardation occurs when demand for immediate delivery outstrips the market’s ability to deliver the commodity. Backwardation occurs when there are too few sellers of the physical commodity to accommodate all of the actual buyers, so a near-premium develops to compensate the sellers willing to part with metal in return for taking delivery later.
When there is zero contango, it means that there is not even one futures contract that is higher than the current spot or cash price. Zero contango and structural backwardation (where each succeeding futures contract is lower for most or the entire strip) is also known as an “inverse carry” market because the futures no longer compensate holders for the cost of carry, capital, storage and insurance relative to the spot price.
We cannot overemphasize how unusual and rare it is to have zero contango in the silver futures strip. As of the close on Friday, the spot price for silver was $29.07. The closing price for the December 2015 futures contract was $29.02 or 5-cents less, repeat less, than today’s spot price – for delivery four years hence. The few futures contracts that were above the spot price were all within two cents of it. For all intents and purposes, silver is in a zero contango situation now. Just below is the closing strip from Friday, February 4, courtesy of InsideStocks.com.

That means that there is heavy demand for immediate delivery silver. It means that silver players are earning a premium to sell physical for delivery now and to wait for the return of their metal until the March contract, the near active contract, which is trading more than 6 cents lower than spot (blue circle).
Full-blown backwardation has arrived in the COMEX silver futures market. Backwardation suggests that competition for whatever metal is available is heavy and most analysts consider silver backwardation to be a decidedly bullish condition.
By the way, as of Friday, there was only enough silver metal in the Registered category in COMEX depositories to accommodate 8,680 COMEX contracts (43.4 million ounces), or about 6.6% of the 130,601 contracts open as of Thursday’s tally. (Another 59 million ounces was listed as “Eligible” and some of that metal could conceivably be coaxed into the Registered category at some price. Some of the Eligible silver is likely already committed for other purposes and is merely stored in the COMEX system awaiting delivery.)
Evidence of tightness in the silver market continues to surface in other words.
In addition to the near zero contango in silver, we also noted some interesting developments in the commitments of traders report just released Friday. We plan to mention some of them as well as our own trading intentions in the notations in our linked graphs on the subscriber pages by tomorrow, Sunday at 18:00 ET. Vultures, (Got Gold Report subscribers) please log in and navigate to the GGR Charts section in the subscriber pages for more then.
That is all for now, but there is more to come.
Click here: Got Gold Report: Got Gold Report
-END-



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Dernière édition par marie le Dim 27 Mar 2011 - 23:32, édité 1 fois

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MessageRe: le cours de l'argent métal se décorrèle enfin de celui de l'or / Adrian Douglas
par marie Ven 18 Fév 2011 - 12:20





sur les pénuries t la backwardation des futures de l'argent métal ..

l'intox continue ... kitco et autres revendeurs affirment avoir plein d'argent métal à vendre ...( ce qui reste à démontrer .. on se demande d'ailleurs bien pourquoi ils vociférent à ce point .. c'est pas du tout commercial ça .. de dire à ses clients que la marchandise regorge .. !! )



sauf que justement, ce métal argent là .. ne correspond pas aux standarts que les utilisateurs industriels consomment.... vous croyez tout de même pas qu'ils se fournissent avec des lingotins de 500 gr ou d'un kg d'argent .. les utilisateurs industriels??

si la Demande industrielle d'argent ne peut être satisfaite .. que ça plaise ou non à kitco et cpm group .. il y a bien pénurie de métal !




Citation :
So to recap, there is plenty of silver lying around according to Kitco. The refined silver deliverable to industrial consumers is not the same as the silver cast into bars for those pesky investors. What the good people at CPM fail to understand is that the silver market includes both industrial consumption and investment demand. If you are unable to supply one part of a market, then there IS a shortage


www.lemetropolecafe.com


No shortage of silver, just silver bars, CPM Group insists
Submitted by cpowell on 03:35AM ET Thursday, February 17, 2011. Section: http://www.gata.org/node/9614


4:19a MT Thursday, February 17, 2011
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
Kitco News reports that metals consultancy CPM Group, whose managing director, Jeffrey M. Christian, has been talking down the gold and silver markets for the last $1,000 and $25 of their moves up, respectively, has issued a "research note" minimizing reports of shortages in silver.
Reports of shortages have been "blown out of proportion by the silver conspiracy theorists," CPM Group contends, and there is plenty of silver, even as silver refiners are making "silver shot" products for industry rather than investment-grade bars.
Of course since investment-grade bars are what the commodity exchanges purport to sell, rather than "silver shot," someone might want to tell the refiners or the parties who have sold what the refiners prefer not to manufacture.
You can find the Kitco News report on the CPM Group "research note" here:
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110216DeC_CPM.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc
CPM Group: Reports Of Physical Silver Shortages 'Limited'

Bill,
Jeffrey Christian has been wheeled out by his bullion banks masters to talk down the market.
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110216DeC_CPM.html

Whatever happens they can’t have any talk of real physical shortages. There is plenty of silver around it just isn’t available in investment bar grade! The refiners refuse to handle "unallocated non-existent silver"!
You have to love this
QUOTE
Regarding the rise in silver lease rates and the slight backwardation in March Comex futures prices, it said that lease rates are higher, at 0.8% versus 0.3% previously. Still, it said 0.8% lease rate is still very low, considering in the past 30 years lease rates have ranged between 3% to 6%. They also attributed the backwardation in futures to market congestion.
END
What the freakin’ heck is "market congestion"??? Is that when there are two many buyers who want silver now and there isn’t enough silver available?
The CPM Group CEO Jeffrey Christian is the same clown who has forecast gold to average $941/oz over this decade! So with such a stellar call you can have confidence he will get the silver call right also!
Cheers
Adrian



Mexico Mike…
Junk reporting from the good people at Kitco

Hi Bill!
Nothing is confirmed until it has been officially denied. Note this report published on Kitco:
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110216DeC_CPM.html


The source is CPM group. I guess no one there has a name since the actual source was not published but of course we all know that pompous ass Jeffery Christian is the spokesman for that group, and the commentary today pretty much comes right off his media notes.

What I find funny in that article is that several bullion vendors report they have plenty of silver, including Kitco. Well thats nice. Kitco is suspected of being in trouble for operating pooled accounts that own nothing but paper silver. If this is true then it should surprise no one that they are right there telling the world there is plenty of silver and their own reporter has used them as a source in her article.

On an unrelated note, the Mafia has told reporters that they are legitimate business people that are not involved in any crime. Oh, and this just in: there is no mafia.

I also noticed there was absolutely no mention in that article of the shrinking inventory levels for silver at the COMEX. You would think that would be of interest in a story about shortages. Not to mention the huge open interest still outstanding with just 8 days until first notice for delivery.

So to recap, there is plenty of silver lying around according to Kitco. The refined silver deliverable to industrial consumers is not the same as the silver cast into bars for those pesky investors. What the good people at CPM fail to understand is that the silver market includes both industrial consumption and investment demand. If you are unable to supply one part of a market, then there IS a shortage. Being able to identify outlets that report a few hundred thousand ounces of silver available only establishes that silver has not been sold out worldwide to the last ounce. There have been numerous times when vendors sold out of hundreds of thousands of ounces of supply in a day or less. Just a few weeks ago the largest bullion vendor in Canada was reported to be completely sold out of 100-oz silver bars. I do not recall ever seeing Kitco report on that.

If I was in the bullion retail business I would be laughing all the way to the bank when stories of shortages start to circulate. Why would a vendor like Kitco go out of their way to put out such a one-sided article to discourage buyers? I cant wait to see the shrill denials and the lame commentary pumped out to explain when the COMEX eventually defaults. And what excuse will they come up with at Kitco if the pooled accounts are revealed to be a total scam? It is just amatter of time.
Cheers!
MexicoMike…
]



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Dernière édition par marie le Dim 27 Mar 2011 - 23:34, édité 2 fois

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MessageRe: le cours de l'argent métal se décorrèle enfin de celui de l'or / Adrian Douglas
par marie Ven 18 Fév 2011 - 14:38

nouvelle alerte de Didier ( Soros 35 ) sur les SIFO , silver forward mid rates


mise a jour le vendredi 18 fevrier > GROSSE ALERTE

attention y a une nouvelle chute dans le negatif de l echeance a 12 mois sur le SIFO .... toutes les echeances sont dans le negatif mais y a une grosse acceleration aujourd hui:

1 mois: -0.36
2 mois: -0.37
3 MOIS: -0.37
6 MOIS: -0.39
12 MOIS: -0.368

depuis hier on a accelere de plus de 100% sur l echeance a 12 mois (on est passe de -0.14 A -0.368)

y a plus de physique sur le marche , voila ce que veut dire un sifo surtout a 12 mois negatif ... grosse acceleration en vue !

a+

didier



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