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pétrole / le standart us WTI est en train d'être déboulonné !

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Messagepétrole / le standart us WTI est en train d'être déboulonné !
par marie Ven 11 Fév 2011 - 18:07

avant de commencer, quelques définitions :


le WTI est le standart US, concurrencé par d'autres benchmarks, sur lequel il avait jusquà présent le pas .. en tant que standart internationalement reconnu, pour fixer le cours du pétrole... mais la donne change !

www.lemetrolecafe.com


What is Brent crude and why is its price so much higher than "regular" crude oil?


Much has been in the media over the price of Brent crude oil, as yesterday it broke $100 for the first time in over 2 years. Most people don't know what Brent crude is and how its price differs from the benchmark oil contract that closed at $90.75 yesterday.

Despite having only a few options to choose from when it comes to pumping gas in your car, there are actually 160 different internationally traded crude oils. The characteristics and quality of the crude make them different from each other. The 2 most common types of crude oil are West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent.

WTI is the benchmark in oil pricing and its price is what we see usually see in the media when they refer to the price per barrel of oil. WTI, also known as Texas Light Sweet Crude, usually commands a higher price due to its high quality. Also, WTI is used to refine larger portions of gasoline and has a huge demand in the U.S.

Brent crude is referred to as "sweet light crude." It is sourced from 15 different oil fields in the North Sea and is used for gasoline and middle distillates. Brent crude contains more sulfur than WTI, making it not quite as "light." It is primarily used in the Northwestern European market and its price is often used to price oil in Asia and Europe.

Usually, the prices of WTI and Brent are within $2 of each other and they shadow each other's fluctuations. However, as of late that gap has widened significantly and the price of Brent crude is more than $10 higher than WTI.

Usually WTI is refined on the East Coast of the United States and then shipped out as gasoline. However, at the moment there is an abnormal amount of domestic refineries that are down for maintenance and repair. To meet the demand European refineries are refining more Brent crude that is then being shipped to the U.S. This is causing the price of Brent to surge compared to WTI.

If you are interested in trading Brent crude, there is a relatively new ETF, BNO, that tracks its price. It's already 20% in just the past 3 months.




****************************************

on a donc et depuis quelques temps un premium important entre brent et wti qui se monte en ce moment à 16 $ .. ce qui n'est pas rien !



An explanation later from RG:
Bill,..
Finally got a London based Oil Trader on the other end of the phone today to enquire on exactly what’s going on between Brent and WTIC, which was almost at a $16 premium earlier,..
He told me that over the last 6 months there has been a growing disconnect within the industry, with Brent increasingly taking the role as The Standard for price purposes,..
It seems that WTIC is becoming increasingly irrelevant within the global industry, and largely only associated to that produced on USA soil,.. But given that the US has to import an increasingly large proportion of it’s oil demand, I can’t see local producers excepting a 14% discount against that that’s coming in off the boats!..
It seems the US may very well be fast losing control of the Oil Standard,..
Please somebody give me a better reason to be in the precious metals sector!..

And to be in the real physical metal!..
Best,..
Rich (Live from ‘The Scarborough Bullion Desk’)
My take on this oil conundrum is that it is part of the G-8 effort led by French President Sarkozy to lean on certain US commodity prices, as mentioned to Café members on January 5.

***********

et plus loin

Bill H:
To all; there is now a whopping and mind boggling $14.50 difference in price between West Texas crude and Brent North Sea crude oil. Historically (until 2008) WTI always traded at a premium to Brent, this is no longer true. But why? I do not know for sure but can make an educated guess that the masters of the universe have figured out how to "use" derivatives to make their wishes reality. In other words, they are doing to West Texas crude what they have done to Gold and Silver for years now.
But one must wonder, where are the arbitrageurs? Why are they not buying West Texas crude for delivery and shipping it for Brent delivery on contracts sold short? This is too too easy of a trade for the arbs. Of course they could sell Brent contracts and Buy WTI contracts but that would be speculating and involves risk, taking delivery in one place and delivering to another is not really speculating, it is "cleaning up the spread". I understand that there are transportation costs involved but surely not 14+% of the carried cargo.


********************

la dernière analyse de Kirby

les producteurs et pays exportateurs de pétrole sont tout simplement en train de détroner le standart WTI, outrageusement cappé à la hausse


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1297235340.php

je vous renvoie - en complément - aux analyses précédentes sur ce sujet

http://www.hardinvestor.net/t9834-kirby-swaps-petrole?highlight=p%E9trole

et également celle ci

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1252680125.php

ça vous fait penser à rien ? déconnection des cours or et argent papier et physique?

dommage que les producteurs d'or ou d'argent soient pour la pluspart des lopettes dont le porte parole officiel est le gros wagon des collabos ( WGC) .. mais bon .. ça va peut être pas durer .. !!



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MessageRe: pétrole / le standart us WTI est en train d'être déboulonné !
par marie Sam 12 Fév 2011 - 14:39

www.lemetropolecafe.com



WTI divergence
Hi Bill,
there are a number of things that are effecting the WTI at the moment, mainly tars and oil adding to supply at Cushing, and the demand that is dropping in the US economy. Jeff Rubin has produced a good article that explains the supply side pushing the WTI price down, the reality of the demand side isn't broached however.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
"
The divergence is no mystery. Unlike Brent crude from the North Sea, which can be shipped to refineries pretty much anywhere in the world, oil in storage at Cushing can only be absorbed by refineries in the U.S. Midwest. With nowhere else to go, WTI is not even an accurate barometer for oil prices in the U.S. market, let alone the global market. For example, the price spread between it and Light Louisiana Sweet on the Gulf coast is as big as its spread with Brent. And by all accounts, the spread between WTI and Brent is going to become even bigger, rendering the former increasingly irrelevant as a global pricing benchmark.
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=121424
Cheers,
Gary



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MessageRe: pétrole / le standart us WTI est en train d'être déboulonné !
par marie Jeu 17 Fév 2011 - 23:45

ya pas que silver qui fait de la résistance ( plus haut historique de 30 ans today )

le premium brent / wti , c'est loin d'étre terminé : 16.50 $ , à présent !

www.lemetropolecafe.com


Brent premium now up to almost $16.50!..
The joke goes on,

Forgetting about the quite ludicrous front month for West Texas Intermediate Crude which is now selling down at a circa $84.50, compare the April contracts where there is an almost $16.50 premium on Brent over it’s US counterpart, April WTIC - $87.47 against April Brent $103.86,
Since the start of the year, Brent has headed higher whilst WTIC has for some ‘inexplicable’ reason broken down, So is it Brent that’s lying or WTIC?
Best gauge would be to look at the stocks in the sector and see their reaction to current oil price moves,

I think that answers the question, The Oil Service Stocks who generate money from the real market and not some paper fraud are clearly siding with Brent as the index is up some 15% since the start of the year,
There is no accident to this analysis, The Oil Service Stocks have always traded with a very close correlation to the price of WTIC, See the graph below, which shows that whilst at any one time one might out perform the other, both have seemingly always risen together or fallen together, That is until the start of this year when a clear divergence emerged with the Oil Stocks heading higher while the price of WTIC sank!

The CFTC has a duty to ensure that the US Futures Markets act as a suitable price discovery for each underlying asset:
They admit to as much on their own website under the ‘Missions and Responsibility’ section which states:
· Today, the CFTC assures the economic utility of the futures markets by encouraging their competitiveness and efficiency, protecting market participants against fraud, manipulation, and abusive trading practices, and by ensuring the financial integrity of the clearing process. Through effective oversight, the CFTC enables the futures markets to serve the important function of providing a means for price discovery and offsetting price risk.
I can only conclude, they are either blatantly lying or not doing their job properly, because there is clearly little real price discovery going on from where I’m sitting,
What an absolute joke the US Capital System has become, A den for thieves and beggars,
Best,
Rich (Live from ‘The Scarborough Bullion Desk’)



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MessageRe: pétrole / le standart us WTI est en train d'être déboulonné !
par marie Sam 19 Fév 2011 - 15:36

même phénoméne avec le gaz nat et le propane

www.lemetropolecafe.com

James Mc…

The nat. gas- propane spread

Bill,
In addition to the Brent - WTIC price gap there is another curiosity going on in energy. It is the natural gas/ propane gas price spread, equalized for BTU output. Historically the spread between the two can vary, with nat. gas at times in the 1990's actually being premium to propane. In recent years propane has been roughly a 30% - 50% premium to nat. gas, depending on various U.S. markets. Right now in my retail market propane has blown out to a 240% premium to natural gas. In other words, a home that costs $150 a month to heat with natural gas currently costs $360 using propane. This is very strange to me, and you have to think the more visible nat. gas prices are once more being manipulated. Propane is used largely in rural areas where nat. gas isn't available for residential and agricultural uses. Like platinum prices compared to gold, it isn't on anybody's radar. Propane also more closely tracks crude oil prices. Natural gas is used more widely by many millions of homes, and a 240% increase would be catastrophic to homeowner budgets. DOE data
http://www.eia.doe.gov/ shows the following price/supply trends in the past year:
Natural gas futures price
2/16/2011: $3.921/mmBtu
down $0.123 from wk ago down $1.389 from yr ago

Natural gas inventories


2/11/2011: 1,911 Bcf
down 233 Bcf from wk ago down 141 Bcf from yr ago

As you see while nat. gas inventories have declined 7% y/y nat. gas prices have collapsed 25% at the same time. That sure smacks of derivative manipulation IMO. Throw natural gas on the manipulation pile along with oil, gold, silver, bonds, the Dow, and anything else visible enough to produce an inflation expectation. Meanwhile propane, heating oil, silver, cotton, coffee, sugar, rice, beans, corn, wheat, and the rest of the non-inflation expectations group are absolutely exploding. This dichotomy cannot go on forever. Exploding commodity prices will wreak havoc with the economy, no matter what the Politburo says.
James Mc



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