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ventes à terme d'argent métal / grosse intox des bullions banks

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Messageventes à terme d'argent métal / grosse intox des bullions banks
par marie Sam 12 Fév 2011 - 15:58

voilà t'il pas que le Financial times pond un article prétendant que les producteurs d'argent métal recommencent à hedger ( vendre à terme ) leur production.. et de manière importante .. inquiets qu'ils seraient d'une baisse importante des cours ..

et que ce serait même la cause de la backwardation de l'argent .. qu'est ce qu'il faut pas entendre ::

ce sont les mêmes clowns qui ont poussé les producteurs d'or à hedger massivement lorsque l'or cotait 300 $ et moins, ( ce hedging s'est étendu de 1994 à 2005 ) .., et on sait ce que ça a donné ( des pans entiers du secteur ont disparu, totalement ruinés par cette pratique désastreuse )

les JPM et co aimeraient bien nous rejouer le gold carrytrade, façon silvercarry trade

et j'oubliais la cerise sur le gateau, puisque c'est bien le même JPM qui déclare accepter en collatéral du gold PHYSIQUE, en excluant, de plus, tout etf genre gld !


http://www.gata.org/node/9590
Bullion banks get FT's help in trying to talk silver down


Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2011-02-11 22:10. Section: Daily Dispatches
Miners Hedge against Fall in Silver
By Jack Farchy
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/937e5dba-33cf-11e0-b1ed-00144feabdc0.html#axzz...
Silver mining companies have begun to buy insurance against a sharp drop in prices after years during which hedging fell out of favour.
The move by several large miners to lock in prices comes as gold and silver prices have slipped from recent highs, with investors turning to other assets as economic sentiment improves. Some analysts have begun to warn that the precious metals may soon peak after a decade-long bull run.
Gold is down 5.7 per cent from its record high in December. Silver jumped 75 per cent from August to hit a three-decade high last month, but has since fallen 6 per cent, trading at $29.30 an ounce on Tuesday.
Bankers said at least five miners had hedged a portion of their silver output in recent months, either by selling future production ahead of time at a fixed price or by buying options to protect against falling prices. This has helped push the market into "backwardation" -- an unusual condition for silver in which the price for future delivery is lower than for immediate delivery.
The quantity of silver hedged in the latest wave of activity is several times the size of previous outstanding hedges, according to bankers' estimates.
Raymond Key, head of metals trading at Deutsche Bank, estimates that about 100 million ounces of silver has been hedged in the past two months. That compares with total outstanding hedges, called the global "hedge book," of 20 million ounces in late 2010 and annual mine production of about 700 million ounces, says precious metals consultancy GFMS.
Michael Jansen, metals strategist at JPMorgan, said 2011 was "probably the year of the producer hedge." He added: "This bull market in commodities is maturing to a point where, as much as supply is under pressure, you can say with a bit more certainty that in two to three years it's going to be different."
Bankers and analysts cautioned against expecting a widespread return to gold and silver hedging, noting that silver was not the main product of any of the miners who had executed hedges in recent months.
Mining companies have cut back on hedging -- and several gold miners spent billions of dollars buying back their hedges -- after protests from shareholders who preferred full exposure to the commodity markets.
Minera Frisco, the Mexican mining company spun out of Carlos Slim's conglomerate, said last month it had hedged 70 million ounces of silver production to 2013.
"Gold and silver's slide in January may have spooked some producers," said Edel Tully, precious metals strategist at UBS. "When you put it in the context of silver's massive rise last year it is not surprising some producers are locking in price gains."

***************

et les commentaires sur www.lemetropolecafe.com


Peter Georges, le monsieur gold de l'afrique du sud a annoté et envoyé cet article à Bill Murphy

This article on silver hedging slipped through the crack yesterday. Had a little trouble getting to sleep last night what with the excitement over my trip to Vancouver. Wouldn’t you know my good friend Peter George, The Mr. Gold of South Africa, called at 6 AM to make sure I had seen it. Oh well. Anyway here it is…




Wouldn’t you know that by far the largest short in silver, JP Morgan, is influencing some silver miners to hedge silver around $30 per ounce. These are the same clowns who influenced major gold producers to hedge their forward production at $300, and below, at the end of the last decade and at the beginning of this one.
With silver in explosive mode, and likely to take out $50 per ounce this year, these hedges will prove to be just as disastrous. The silver trading operation at JPM is as corrupt and crooked as any Mafia enterprise in the US. One day they will get their just deserts.
RANTING ANDY: SILVER IN EXTREME BACKWARDIZATION
As we speak, not only has the silver futures market gone into backwardation for the near months, but out to 2015! This is one of the most astonishing occurrences I have ever seen in the financial markets, particularly as silver is not your garden-variety commodity, but MONEY ITSELF (see link below). Not that astonishing occurrences aren’t becoming commonplace as the global financial system teeters on the edge of its inevitable abyss.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/20
11/2/10_Turk_-_Silver_Backwa
rdation_for_Years,_Possible_Hyperinflation.html

Global Central Banks and their henchmen/partners at the major investment banks are losing their grip on the PM manipulation scheme, which as I long predicted (based on the wonderful work of GATA and others) would occur due to their inability to secure REAL, PHYSICAL metal to sell into the market.
The paper game of naked shorting futures contracts and creating complex, unbacked gold and silver derivatives is coming to an end, as the gap between the prices of FAKE PAPER and REAL PHYSICAL metals, particularly silver, is reaching such astronomic levels that it has caused the entire futures complex to move into a multi-year backwardation.
This week’s comical suppression of the mining stocks is nothing more than yet another (illegal) paper ruse to try and separate investors from their REAL METAL, but as you can see that metal is in very, very strong hands, perhaps never to be pried loose. And if you don’t believe my words, read these about China’s intentions:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/2/
10_China_May_Increase_its_Gold_Holdings_Beyond_Ft_Knox_Level.html

The end game of the Precious Metals suppression is in sight now, and when it does end the time to PROTECT YOURSELF against hyperinflation will be near its end.


**********

Enfin et pour bien montrer à quel point on désinforme , ci dessous le graph de la catégorie producer-merchant .. dans laquelle sont classé les hedgeurs
il s'agit de la nette short position, exprimée en nb de contrats
plus elle monte, plus ils couvrent leurs shorts ( et inversement )

on voit parfaitement sur ce graph que les producers merchants ont couvert sur la dernière jambe de hausse du silver ( courbe rose ) ... et commencent seulement cette semaine à empliler de nouveaux shorts . ( et c'est tant mieux.. car les spécs rempilent également ===> liquidation terminée )

ils sont où les soit disant producteurs qui ont hedgé le silver à la hausse, ces 2 derniers mois ?
100 millions d'once ça fait 20.000 contrats silver ..se foutent vraiment de la gueule du monde !

Citation :
financial times
The quantity of silver hedged in the latest wave of activity is several times the size of previous outstanding hedges, according to bankers' estimates.
Raymond Key, head of metals trading at Deutsche Bank, estimates that about 100 million ounces of silver has been hedged in the past two months.




graph Gene Arensberg



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Dernière édition par marie le Ven 18 Mar 2011 - 21:34, édité 1 fois

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MessageRe: ventes à terme d'argent métal / grosse intox des bullions banks
par marie Mar 15 Fév 2011 - 17:12

pour ceux qui douteraient encore qu'il se passe quelque chose de tout à fait inédit sur silver .. et que c'est extraordinairement bull

et que la divergence gold / silver va en s'accentuant .. ( je ne parle pas-ici- du prix, mais du comportement et des cots, radicalement différents )

voici un bref topo d'Arensberg sur la question

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/02/current-silver-definition-move-not-like-the-others.html



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MessageRe: ventes à terme d'argent métal / grosse intox des bullions banks
par marie Jeu 17 Fév 2011 - 11:06

james turk : même si ces infos sur le hedging silver sont vraies, cela ne fera qu'empirer le short squeeze des commerciaux.
l'augmentation des silver rates montre à quel point les bullions banks sont à la peine pour mettre la main du du métal réel... et ça n'est pas la livraison hypothétique par les producteurs dans un 1,2 ou 5 ans qui réglera le problème... même si le marché du physique continue d'absorber tout le métal emprunté que les BB lui refourguent...de sorte que le prix du silver ne baisse pas .


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/2/16_Turk_-_Massive_Short_Squeeze_in_Silver%2C_Gold_to_Hit_New_Highs.html



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MessageRe: ventes à terme d'argent métal / grosse intox des bullions banks
par marie Sam 19 Fév 2011 - 17:31

pour en revenir au prétendu hedging des producteurs silver ... 1er démenti formel de PAAS qui répond à une question d'un actionnaire, lecteur du midas ..

pas plus de 20 à 25% de la production annuelle de zinc, plomb et cuivre ... jamais pour le silver !

Bill,
I just received this hedging info from Kettina Cordero, Pan American Silver, PAAS.


"From time to time, Pan American hedges part of its base metals production; this is usually not more than 20 to 25% of the annual production of zinc, lead or copper.
Pan American does not hedge any of its silver and gold production."



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MessageRe: ventes à terme d'argent métal / grosse intox des bullions banks
par marie Jeu 24 Mar 2011 - 13:27

je reviens sur ce "merveilleux" article du FT, posté au début de la file :

Citation :
Minera Frisco, the Mexican mining company spun out of Carlos Slim's conglomerate, said last month it had hedged 70 million ounces of silver production to 2013.
donc, Minera Frisco, aurait vendu à terme 2013, 70 millions d'onces d'argent , avec la bénédiction de son actionnaire majoritaire, Carlos Slim, et ça au début 2011 ( voir le début de l'article FT qui insiste sur ce point : les producteurs d'argent recommencent à hedger )

voici l'analyse de Ted Butler et d'Ed Steer, qui ont eu une longue conversation téléphonique à ce sujet:

ce n'est pas vraiment du hedging ça ..c'est du suicide .. fort probablement "demandé" par JPM ou l'une des autres grosses bullions banks, afin de leur permettre couvrir shorts ..
et cest totalement différent de l'histoire que nous raconte le financial times.
déja, c'est pas du hedge récent, ( sur les plus hauts du début 2011 ) mais fort probablement d'aout 2010 , au moment où l'argent cotait au plus bas de 18.82$.. bonjour la bonne affaire ..

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/silver-approaching-stage-two-its-bull-market


Citation :
"The FT story implies the transactions were initiated by the mining companies. I think this is unlikely, there being a greater likelihood that it was initiated by one of the big commercials, such as JPMorgan. Bearing in mind these are forward transactions, they do not appear in the public domain, and can be completed at any price, giving the bullion bank the opportunity to do a very special deal with a nice fat premium for a possibly reluctant miner. And what better time to do this, when the price has fallen and there is uncertainty in the market."

"So my guess is that it one of the Big Four [JPM?] covering its shorts, because there is no other way of doing so and the timing is opportune. Kind regards. Alasdair"
Silver analyst Ted Butler and I had a very long conversation on the phone yesterday about this Financial Times story that reported on the 100 million ounces sold forward by the silver mining companies...and Ted agrees that Alasdair may have a point.
The FT story is misleading in some respects, because it insinuates that all of these forward sales had just occurred during the first six weeks of 2011, when silver prices were at their peak...then heading lower. That was not the case at all, as most of these hedges were placed many months prior to the end of 2010.
Of that 100 million ounces, the standout was the 70 million ounces sold forward by Mexican silver company Minera Frisco...in which Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim has a huge position. These hedges were placed at $18.82 the ounce...and the last time we were that low in price, was back in the third week of August 2010...so that's probably when it happened.
Not only did they sell forward a huge chunk of silver...but they also did it for gold, lead, zinc and copper. Silver and gold hedges run for three years...and the base metals for two.
This is what Ted had to say about it in a note [headlined "Hedging Insanity"] to his subscribers yesterday..."I don't think I have ever seen such a dangerous hedge book [and I've seen plenty]. By my calculations, the company is already in the hole for upwards of $600 million on all its metal hedges...with silver accounting for $300 million of that total. Its additional exposure will be many times that amount if prices move higher, as they are expected to do."
This sound exactly like what happened to Apex Silver many years back...and they ended up filing for bankruptcy. It's also similar to what happened to Ashanti Gold...and AngloGold had to come along and take it over because their hedge book had become toxic. And let's not forget a Canadian gold company called Cambior. As Ted went on to say..."The hedging experience [also] cost Barrick Gold $10 billion in total."
Based on what happened to all four of these companies, I doubt that Minera Frisco will survive long enough to pay out its hedge book...and I also doubt that the owner [billionaire or not] will have deep enough pockets to cover his company's ever-increasing losses.
Well, dear reader, I wonder what bullion banks were the ones that did the deals on all these forward sales? Without doubt, virtually every ounce was hedged in the OTC market...so all this happened without causing a ripple in the silver price. I would bet a fair amount of coin that Alasdair is right on the money. This reeks of JPMorgan. As Ted Butler pointed out, the Minera Frisco deal alone is equivalent to 14,000 Comex contracts that JPMorgan might possibly have been able to cover in the OTC market. Stay tuned!



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