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comex: baisse des couvertures pour l'or, mais pas pour l'argent !

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Messagecomex: baisse des couvertures pour l'or, mais pas pour l'argent !
par marie Ven 17 Juin 2011 - 14:47

baisse de 10% des couvertures pour futures de l'or, effectif à la cloture de lundi
inchangé pour l'argent ... c'est dingue,ça !

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110616AS_CME.html



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MessageRe: comex: baisse des couvertures pour l'or, mais pas pour l'argent !
par marie Sam 18 Juin 2011 - 17:11

est ce pour détourner les spécs de l'argent vers l'or, à l'approche des options or et argent?
en tout état de cause la comparaison des leviers pour l'or ( 25.35)et pour l'argent ( 8.30 ), est édifiante ... alors que l'argent est très loin de ses plus hauts, contrairement à l'or
ils ont vraiment un pb sur l'argent, pour en arriver à ce genre de manoeuvre !

www.lemetropolecafe.com

James McShirley comes up with one unique insight after another on the gold/silver action. He has done it again…

Gold as a siphon
Bill,
The latest reduction in margin requirements for gold is a blatant attempt to siphon speculator interest away from July silver prior to option expiration and first notice day. This is the clearest signal yet that they are on the ropes with silver delivery. At the prior spec margin of $6,751 for gold it already enjoyed leverage of 22.81 - 1, based on $1,540 gold. By decreasing margin requirements to $6,075 they have increased leverage another 11% to 25.35 - 1. This is totally irrational when you realize silver is mired in leverage of only 8.30 - 1, based on $35.85. Gold already had 315% more leverage than silver, yet by reducing gold margins further it now is a whopping 350% higher! This is even more absurd when you realize gold is only 2 1/2% off its all-time high, while silver is still 28% lower than its most recent top. Any CME talk of risk modeling is pure rubbish when leverage of 22 - 1 is increased further to 25 - 1, while silver is clamped at 8 - 1. All risk models must factor leverage ratios, and the CME has thrown that out the window in favor of protecting silver shorts.
I'm sure they think they can better control (and rig) the new spec interest coming into gold futures. There's probably at least a few hedge funds dumb enough to pull out of silver in favor of gold. After all, they can buy 3 1/2 gold future contracts for every 1 silver contract. The CME just tipped their hand BIG time IMO, and they are pulling out all stops before the end of the month. When the silver market blows up it will then be obvious to all that the CFTC was nothing more than an illusion of enforcement, and in reality a PR division of the banking cartel.
Like the guy in the band Spinal Tap, whose guitar volume knob went to 11 instead of merely 10, my silver bullishness is now an "11".
James Mc



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MessageRe: comex: baisse des couvertures pour l'or, mais pas pour l'argent !
par g.sandro Dim 19 Juin 2011 - 3:33

Je suis complètement d'accord avec ça et j'en avais une sorte d'intuition,- non, plus que ça, une perception, le terme est plus adapté - intuitive, viscérale, "stomacale", sans néanmoins, trouver les justes mots pour l'exposer aussi bien...

Alors respect, une fois de plus, pour Bill qui, lui, a su les trouver ces mots...



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MessageRe: comex: baisse des couvertures pour l'or, mais pas pour l'argent !
par marie Dim 19 Juin 2011 - 17:14

yep Sandro

analyse identique chez le numismate Patrick Heller, qui lui aussi fait le rapprochement avec l'échéance très proche de l'expiration des options or et argent, ainsi qu'avec l'évaporation inédite et importante des stocks argent du comex


http://news.coinupdate.com/is-the-comex-manipulating-gold-margins-to-mask-silver-supply-deficits/



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MessageIs The COMEX Manipulating Gold Margins To Mask Silver Supply Deficits?
par g.sandro Dim 19 Juin 2011 - 23:12

http://news.coinupdate.com/is-the-comex-manipulating-gold-margins-to-mask-silver-supply-deficits/

Is The COMEX Manipulating Gold Margins To Mask Silver
Supply Deficits?


June 17, 2011 By Patrick A.
Heller
4
Comments


The COMEX has just dropped the minimum margin requirement
for gold contracts to $6,075 from its former $6,751 minimum. This move does not
make economic sense as the price of gold is now within 2% of its all-time high
COMEX close.
The lower margin requirement also does not make sense when compared to the
COMEX margin requirements for silver contracts. With the lower margin
requirements it is now possible to control more than $25 worth of gold for every
$1 of margin put down on a gold contract. In contrast, the silver contract
minimum margin requirements are much higher. At today’s closing silver price,
investors could only control up to $8.30 of silver for every $1 of margin put
down on a silver contract.
You have to remember that common sense and consistency aren’t the only
factors that the COMEX considers when setting these requirements. Could it be
that the COMEX is trying to lure speculators and investors away from the silver
market by offering them greater margin opportunities in the gold market?
Think about it for a minute. By the end of this month, the next round of
COMEX silver options will expire and the first day of notice for delivery of
July 2011 silver contracts will occur. Both of these events could trigger
strong demand that could seriously deplete COMEX registered silver
inventories.
On June 16, 2010, the COMEX had 119.5 million ounces of total silver in its
bonded warehouses. Since then, there has been a steady outflow of silver from
these warehouses, especially of the registered silver that is available to
fulfill contract deliveries. Early this week, total COMEX silver inventories
had fallen below 99 million ounces, a decline of more than 17% in the past
year. Even more important, the quantity of inventories that were registered had
fallen to record low levels below 30 million ounces! The remaining COMEX
inventories are “eligible” which means that that they are owned by investors who
are simply storing the silver in COMEX warehouses. Eligible inventories cannot
be used to fulfill COMEX contracts unless the individual owners choose to make
them available for that purpose.
When the March and May 2011 COMEX silver contracts matured, a significant
percentage of them were settled for cash, as is permitted under COMEX rules.
However, the cash prices that contract owners received were at levels reported
to be as much as 30% higher than the prevailing spot prices! Looking back at
when the December 2010 COMEX silver contracts matured, it appears there may have
been a larger than normal percentage of contracts that were settled for
cash.
The sellers of COMEX contracts obviously would not be willing to pay up to
30% above the spot price to settle their liability for cash if they had the
alternative of simply delivering physical silver. The fact that comparatively
little silver is being removed from COMEX registered inventories to fulfill
maturing contracts is a significant indicator of a major physical supply
shortage.
I don’t know if the COMEX reduced gold margin requirements in order to draw
some leveraged investors away from holding maturing silver options and commodity
contracts. The timing is definitely suspicious.
Today was not a good day for the US government on multiple fronts. The
unofficial Misery index, which adds the Bureau of Labor Statistics official
figures for unemployment and the rise in consumer prices stands at 12.7, which
is the highest figure since 1983! From June 1993 through May 2008, the Misery
index had been below 10. This index has been continuously above 10 since
November 2009.
The news got worse from there. At the International Monetary Fund press
conference in Sᾶo Paulo, Brazil the United States was lumped with Greece,
Ireland, and Japan as being the countries most in need of restoring their public
finances to reasonable debt levels.
In a recent Bloomberg interview, former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan
warned that a default by the Greek government could push the US back into a
recession. He further said that, “chances of Greece not defaulting are very
small.” He further emphasized the risk by saying that the risk of a Greek
default was now “so high that you almost have to say there’s no way out.”
Today, Germany and France put together another bailout package for the Greek
government. There is widespread fear that Greece may default on its debt and
start a domino effect of defaults much worse than experienced when Lehman
Brothers collapsed in 2008. In the commercial market, Greek companies are
already paying 27% interest for 2-year loans, which is a rate so high that it
almost assumes that a government default is inevitable. Today’s bailout package
did not cure the problem of the Greek government spending beyond its means.
Instead, dealing with the debt problem has been pushed a few months into the
future.
If Greece goes into default, there is a very real risk that Ireland, Italy,
Spain, Portugal, California, New York, and Illinois, to mention only a few,
could themselves quickly begin defaulting on their debts.
As I have been suggesting all along, to protect yourself you might want get
rid of some of your fiat currencies to increase your holdings of physical gold
and silver, the only forms of money that have never failed.
Patrick A. Heller owns Liberty Coin Service in
Lansing, Michigan and writes “Liberty’s Outlook,” a monthly newsletter covering
rare coins and precious metals. Past issues can be found online at http://www.libertycoinservice.com/ Pat Heller is also the gold
market commentator for Numismatic News. Past columns online at http://numismaster.com/ under
“News & Articles”.
His bimonthly columns on collectibles can also be
read at http://www.lansingbusinessmonthly.com under “Articles” and
“Department Columns.”His radio show “Things You ‘Know’ That Just Aren’t So,
And Important News You Need To Know” can be heard at 8:45 AM Wednesday mornings
on 1320-AM WILS in Lansing (which streams live and becomes part of the audio and
text archives posted at http://www.1320wils.com.



Silver is king, Go Gold !
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MessageRe: comex: baisse des couvertures pour l'or, mais pas pour l'argent !
par marie Ven 24 Juin 2011 - 15:21

la CME se prostitue pour que les spécs aillent sur l'or ?

regardez un peu les leviers sur les différents " produits" !
le levier sur l'or est le plus élevé de tous : 3,07 fois plus de levier sur l'or que sur l'argent, mais aussi 2,23 fois plus que sur le pétrole, etc etc etc


qu'on vienne pas dire qu'on se batte contre la soit disant spéculation, tout ça c'est du vent !

www.lemetropolecafe.com



Gold: the king of money, and now leverage
Bill,
The CME is practically begging speculators to enter gold futures. It is currently the highest leverage that I can find of any major future contract. This has to be the result of sheer panic in the physical silver deliveries. Gold is no doubt the only other product that can lure speculators away from silver in significant numbers. Here is a smattering of leverage ratios currently available to the HFT battlebot crowd, in order of leverage:
Silver 8.17 - 1
Wheat 8.86 - 1
Lumber 11.29 - 1
Crude oil 11.28 - 1
Corn 14.11 - 1
Soybeans 15.18 - 1
Copper 17.66 - 1
Gold 25.10 - 1
It's no coincidence that silver is the lowest leverage of all, while gold is the highest. I'm sure the malarkey CME reason is that gold is less volatile. That is true strictly in the sense of it always having a propensity to getting capped at 1% gains. They undoubtedly don't consider $40 plunges like today part of the volatility equation. The fact is that gold leverage is 307% more than silver, 223% more than crude oil, and even 178% more than corn. It is 142% the leverage of its nearest competitor, copper. Look for the high gold leverage to remain, and even increase in a desperate attempt to thwart silver speculators. Only when physical gold starts exiting the Comex in significant numbers will it then be punished with single-digit leverage. BTW, The low leverage ratio of wheat would also imply there's shorts in trouble there as well.
James Mc



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MessageRe: comex: baisse des couvertures pour l'or, mais pas pour l'argent !
par marie Sam 9 Juil 2011 - 12:48

et je ne parlais même pas du levier pour les commerciaux, qui est, comme vous le savez, TOUJOURS plus élevé que celui des spéculateurs

1 pour 34.36 pour l'or et les commerciaux ( contre 1 pour 25.43 pour les spéculateurs sur futures de l'or

ça reste toujours inquiétant, bien que la séance d'hier ait été magnifique, notamment en raison d'un exécrable job report

www.lemetropolecafe.com

James Mc…
Still wary

Bill,
The NFP report was SO awful that the best they could do was another 1% cap job. The high tick (as of 12:00 EST) was 1546.00, or 1.00% on the nose. I still smell a rat however, and am not yet willing to declare a cartel defeat. For reasons that at first appear puzzling gold leverage is being allowed to float to the algo heavens. The gold spec leverage at $1,546 is now at 25.43- 1, but more importantly the commercial (read: cartel) leverage is a whopping 34.36 - 1. The CME is showing they have no real regard for risk management. By allowing 34 - 1 leverage they must feel there is no real risk when the short seller is backstopped by the U.S. taxpayer. They are also showing that the silver situation is just THAT scary, and gold leverage is still the way to continue to siphon off interest in silver. If there's one thing I've learned it is that buying extreme leverage rarely works out. Normally high leverage ratios always get resolved in the short sellers favor. The big August gold futures contract set to roll in 3 weeks also coincides with a debt ceiling showdown and an obviously failing economy. Any "giddy" solutions or compromise will be the cartel signal to attack. At least for now color me, cartel wary.
James Mc
Obviously, time will tell here. But, for now, YES! Look at what gold has done since last Friday’s KILLER MOVE…
Daily gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DG/
Gold is very close to making an all-time high close in dollars, after all The Gold Cartel has done to calm the price down.



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