le short selling, c'est à dire la vente à découvert des actions minières or et argent représenterait 5 milliards de $ environ , et probablement en naked short !
certains parient que les cours de l'or et de l'argent vont tres serieusement se replier , et /ou découragent tout investissement dans les actions minières aurifères et argentifères
voila en tout cas qui explique tres bien la sousperformance des minières vs l'once d'or .. qui n'est pas nouvelle d'ailleurs ( si l'on observe graphe ratio hui vs gold .. on constate que ça date depuis dec 2003 ) et à chaque nouveau "top potentiel " des métaux on reprend la même technique .. qui marche parfaitement ... pour le moment ..
alors même que la baisse des métaux attendue .. se réalise de moins en moins ..
url du graph à copier coller ( pour avoir un graph sur 3ans ) : http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$HUI:$GOLD,uu[l,a]dalannay[df][pb50!b200][iLa12,26,9]&pref=G
.. la correction des métaux est attendue depuis un moment et ds cette expectative bloque tout break out sur les minières .. ( a la fois par short selling des caballas qui entraine liquidation des petits et surtout desinteret de tout les autres qui refusent d'entrer ds ces conditions ..sur en principe un top majeur ..... et ça ça fait un moment que c'est savamment entretenu .. depuis dec 2003 en fait .. derniers BO des minières juniors style pmu etc ) ..
par contre les phases baissieres , elles, ne sont pas cappées ...
More on the gold shares:
Well. looks like gold is really starting to gain some momentum. The lows are done away with in no time at all. But that fact is not being reflected in the gold stocks. They seem to be in denial. I think I was ahead by at least 60% when gold was at $400 - $425, and today's strong action by gold along side the very poor performance of the gold stocks across the board is really disappointing. Whenever I see a position of shares sold short, I am amazed at how large the outstanding positing are. This was posted a number of times yesterday....and it pretty much tells the story. I happen to own three of these.
Ten mining stocks the short sellers don't want to rise By Gene Arensberg
27 Nov 2005 at 04:59 PM
Goldcorp - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 33,090,760 shares.
Kinross - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 32,278,124 shares.
Cambior - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 27,217,298 shares.
Barrick - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 23,477,575 shares.
Inco - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 20,020,168 shares.
Bema - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 16,203,654 shares.
Golden Star - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 14,645,003 shares.
Newmont - Reported short interest 14,370,000 shares.
Crystallex - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 10,607,407 shares.
Northern Orion - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 9,257,457 shares.
Bill... To put this into perspective.. the value in today's market for these shorts to be covered, is as follows ( I have excluded Inco as it is not in the Gold business)
This is a $2.3 billion position sitting in the combined portfolios of some major houses around the country.. and probably overseas. I expect that these shown here are but a small percentage of short position held in all gold producers mining shares.. but if we assume that these alone represent 50% of the total short position, that means there are probably $5B or more in shorts. Look at Goldcorp and Barrick! $1.3 billion in those two alone!! If these shares gain 25% and these shorts have to be covered... that's a negative bottom line exposure of about $.5 Billion for those listed and at least $1B if the assumption I have made about the total value of shorts being at least $5B.
From my limited perspective.. that's massive. What's your take on this? Is this the reason the gold companies have stalled in the face of a rising gold price? Looks like a contributing factor to me.
Someone is betting that gold corrects in a major way... like $450 or less, that would pretty much drive down the shares by 25 - 35% and the short sellers would win. I cant see that happening, but in the meantime... someone is betting major amounts of money that it will.
What a crazy world.
This is what is so bullish in my book. There are very few gold bulls out there among the money managers and the general public. They all think gold is going to tank from here, like it has in the past.
Did gold rise 60 cents today or fall $6? By the incredibly dismal action of the gold shares, you would have thought gold was clobbered. Even though gold and silver were higher, the HUI gave up more than half the gains made yesterday, closing at 248.04, down 5.61. The XAU lost 1.91 to 116.23.
Are the shares manipulated lower to dampen excitement over gold, or is it just a complete lack of knowledge out there about what is going on? Hard to say, maybe both. Whatever is going on, it is ridiculous! Would somebody please turn on that light bulb!
Rich sums up the share action: