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futures londres / nickel , gros pb de shortage !

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Messagefutures londres / nickel , gros pb de shortage !
par marie Mer 16 Aoû 2006 - 23:44

le lme tente d'arranger le coup ... mais pour combien de temps?


(sources de cette file midas , le métropole café )

The MIDAS query has been whether silver will become the next copper, or nickel, which rose 4% today with a Korean firm denying a short position. It ought to be.

The latest on Nickel is another outrage of the house protecting overextended shorts (see following story). Nobody forced the shorts to stay that way with record low inventories. Let the market set the price, not the exchange. No exchange has ever bailed out longs who were pounded mercilessly by the shorts.
One day some gold and silver shorts are going to face similar problems as the nickel shorts.

LME Steps In To Calm Nickel Market As Prices Surge

By Andrea Hotter
Of Dow Jones Newswires

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The London Metal Exchange late Wednesday stepped in to calm a nickel futures market experiencing record prices and with some participants squeezing those who wrongly bet prices would decline.

With global nickel stockpiles at critically low levels, the exchange capped the surging costs to those market players unable to deliver the metal.

The nickel market has been roiled in recent days as it became apparent that an LME member on behalf of a single customer or a consortium of its customers holds a large short position.

Selling short means selling an asset not owned in anticipation of subsequently buying it back at a cheaper price. Short sellers are betting the asset's price will fall.

Low nickel inventories make it hard for shorts to deliver the commodity and expensive for them to continually roll their positions forward. LME Chief Executive Simon Heale said: "Nickel stocks are at historically low levels and we now have a genuine material shortage. Our first priority is to ensure that trading remains orderly and to prevent the risk of settlement defaults."

The large short position accounts for 30%-40% of the market open interest on the September delivery date.

That is equivalent to around 10,000-14,000 tons of nickel valued at around $286 million-$400 million at current prices.

LME three-month nickel rose to a fresh high of $29,250 a metric ton Wednesday. There was a short-covering scramble Tuesday ahead of the expiry of the August nickel contract Wednesday, traders and analysts said.

After a particularly active LME floor trading session, shorts rolled their delivery dates forward from a day to two days, with the premium for doing so rocketing 10-fold to $1,000/ton.

Worried by a disorderly market, the LME stepped in to cap that premium to $300/ton, easing the pain for the shorts, with offsetting longs receiving $300/ton compensation.

Market participants told Dow Jones Newswires last week that the large short position is held by South Korean steel giant Posco (005490.SE), but Posco has strongly denied this, saying it holds a small short position in nickel from April amounting to only 900 tons. Posco said it took the position in order sell excess stockpiles of the metal, adding that it has "4,000 tons of excess nickel in stock".

"Other than that, we have no other futures contract on nickel," Jang Young-Ik, senior vice president of stainless material purchasing at Posco, said earlier this week.

Industry participants said that if Posco isn't responsible for the sizable short position, then a nickel producer or a hedge fund are those most likely exposed.

"Posco at least confirmed that it had a 900-ton short position and some suggest it may still have to cover that if the market continues to rise," Sucden analyst Michael Davies said in a note.

UBS analyst Robin Bhar said LME trading demonstrated the "extreme tightness" in the nickel market and suggests that "shorts have become trapped and are desperately trying to cover their positions."

BaseMetals.Com analyst Will Adams said that because the LME nickel market is relatively small in comparison with some copper and aluminum, "letting a short get out of hand means paying the price."

Stockpiles Wafer Thin

Posco's Jang said earlier this week that it established its 900-ton short position through Sempra Metal Ltd.'s Korean branch, with expiry Sept. 29, nine days after the September contract expires.

Sempra Metals in London has declined to comment.

At current nickel prices, it implies Posco is nursing a loss in excess of $10.7 million, with around $2.5 million a day required in margin credit lines to maintain the short position.

Extremely tight LME nickel inventory levels are exacerbating the situation.

Standing at just 6,162 tons worldwide, a massive 78% are canceled warrants, indicating the material is soon to be drawn down, leaving just 1,374 tons available.

"It looks like a short has been caught in this tightness and with so little inventory left in warehouses, it's scrambling to cover," said BaseMetals' Adams.

The LME nickel kerb price was at $29,000/ton.

-By Andrea Hotter, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20 7842 9413;

More on the nickel situation:

Bill,
Although there is still a small amount of nickel left in the LME warehouses, buyers and short sellers are panicking. Bloomberg reports in the article, "Nickel Soars, Prompting Metal Exchange to Impose Trading Limits," that, "..." `We now have a genuine material shortage,'' Simon Heale, chief executive officer of the exchange, said in an e-mailed statement today." *

The Financial Times headlined, "Nickel spikes on panic short covering... as the cash price of the metal spiked to $35,000 a tonne. Dealers reported panic short covering - the third Wednesday of the month and the most important day for open interest. The ‘TOM/next’ premium allowing short positions to roll over one day surged to $1,000 a tonne from about $100 just weeks ago.

Although London Metal Exchange nickel inventories rose 354 tonnes to 6,162, tonnes cancelled warrants - metal already earmarked for delivery - rose to 77.7 per cent of LME stocks. The supply situation is extremely tight as global inventories have shrunk to less than one day’s worth of world consumption. Three-month nickel rose 6.4 per cent to a record $29,200 tonne. " **

Talk about stress – the cost to roll over a short position has gone up by 10 times in a matter of weeks. Yes, I guess you need trading limits when the shorts are getting roasted and can't deliver what they have sold!

It is interesting that this panic is occurring prior to the warehouses actually running dry. As I commented in the July 31 Midas, "So a shortage of nickel would significantly impact the auto, construction and water industries. Would that make headlines? What kind of jolt would that be to every company in the world that has a critical dependence on metal supplies purchased on the commodities exchanges? Could that trigger a global run on the remaining warehouse supplies?

It looks like the answer to that question is a resounding, yes. I believe we are also seeing a preview of what will happen first in silver and later in gold. There aren't nearly enough of these metals around to meet current and future demand. All the manipulator's shenanigans can't change that basic fact.
Best wishes,
Peter R.

More on the same theme:


Bill;
Rehearsals for "what’s to come" in both the gold and silver market are currently being conducted at the LME with nickel:

Nickel spikes on panic short covering
By Chris Flood

Published: August 16 2006 11:19 | Last updated: August 16 2006 17:54

Nickel continued to dominate action in commodities on Wednesday as the cash price of the metal spiked to $35,000 a tonne.

Dealers reported panic short covering - the third Wednesday of the month and the most important day for open interest. The ‘TOM/next’ premium allowing short positions to roll over one day surged to $1,000 a tonne from about $100 just weeks ago. …

Then take special note of how officialdom attempts to insulate the "MORONIC SHORTS" from their own stupidity was briefly available at the link listed. You may try accessing it for yourself but it seems to have been "deactivated" for some reason. The gist of the Bloomberg article was to say that "loan premiums" [cited in the above FT article] have been limited to 300 per tonne per day as a means of limiting backwardation [cash selling for more than futures price] in the marketplace.

This action categorically WILL NOT serve to ease the shortage in the physical market and is tantamount to handing Captain Smith a "bailing bucket" in the wheelhouse of the Titanic after she hit the berg.

Everyone should play special attention to how this sorts itself out as a precursor for "what’s to come" – in the very near future in copper, then silver and then gold.

The paper games WILL END SOON.
Best,
Rob Kirby



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futures londres / nickel , gros pb de shortage ! Sign-m10


Dernière édition par le Mer 8 Nov 2006 - 22:38, édité 1 fois

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MessageRe: futures londres / nickel , gros pb de shortage !
par du-puel Jeu 17 Aoû 2006 - 8:13

c'est à cause de POSCO un sidérurgiste Coréen ; ce con est short sur le nickel alors qu'il devrait être long pour garantir ses approvisionnements à prix connu ; c'est la base et l'utilité même des futures !

Quand les consommateurs se mettent à spéculer ...

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MessageRe: futures londres / nickel , gros pb de shortage !
par marie Ven 18 Aoû 2006 - 1:24

Citation :
c'est à cause de POSCO un sidérurgiste Coréen ; ce con est short sur le nickel alors qu'il devrait être long pour garantir ses approvisionnements à prix connu ; c'est la base et l'utilité même des futures !

on est bien d'accord , tu trouveras entre autre ds les archives de Butler des topos sur les silver users .. représentés par la fameuse SUA . ( silver user association tu sais bien ... celle ki s'est entre autre vivement opposée à l' ETF silver barclays ) .. t'en connais beaucoup toi , ]des cartels de " consommateurs ' fussent t'ils industriels ...? cad qui se liguent pour faire baisser le prix de la mat 1ere dont ils ont besoin pour manufacturer leurs produits? moi je n'en connais qu'un seul .. la SUA...

la manip du sidérurgiste coréen , POSCO ressemble fort à celles des utilisateurs industriels palladium nippons qui ont provoqué le fameux défault du tocom palladium ...

quand les commerciaux , de surcroit utilisateurs industriels, se mettent à spéculer , ce qui n'est pas leur role ... voila ce que ça donne ...


http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/butler032400.html
___________
plus d'info sur le sujet ( source midas )

On getting stuffed:

Bill,
Take a gander at this article. There are only FIVE traders owning 85% of the Nickel short position with the biggest short holding 39%!! Now doesn’t that remind us of something that Ted Butler has been writing about in Silver?!! And isn’t that about the same size long position that BP held in propane contracts?…but that was called "manipulation" and the CFTC has filed suit against BP. When it is on the "short side" the LME steps in to cap the roll-over costs to prevent a "disorderly market". That is a euphemism for "the Cartel getting stuffed".

You have to love the warning from JPMorganChase analyst in the article QUOTE ``It's a risky business for anyone holding shorts in nickel,'' said Bertheil, who heads global metals strategy at JPMorgan Securities Ltd. in London. ``END Yep, it sure is, Mr. Bertheil, and it is going to be a risky business for anyone holding gold and silver shorts too.
Cheers
Adrian

Copper Drops on Speculation Escondida Mine Strike Will End

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell on speculation BHP Billiton may settle a labor dispute with striking workers at Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, ending a week of disruption….

…Demand for nickel, used as an alloy to make stainless steel rust-proof and malleable, will outpace supply by 30,000 tons this year, according to Inco Ltd., the world's second-largest nickel producer.

`Short' Position

The largest short position on LME nickel accounted for as much as 39 percent of open interest in nickel futures for the contracts expiring Oct. 10, according to LME data on Aug. 10.

For the same expiry date, there are four other short positions accounting for as much as 46 percent of open interest. Open interest is the total number of option or futures contracts that have not been closed, liquidated or delivered.

-END-



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Dernière édition par le Mer 23 Aoû 2006 - 0:22, édité 7 fois

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par marie Ven 18 Aoû 2006 - 1:36

Bill,
There are some good quotes in this article highlighted in red.
Cheers
Adrian

By Nick Trevethan

LONDON (Reuters) - Nickel futures held below record highs on Thursday as physical metal stocks dwindled and after the London Metal Exchange (LME) intervened to prevent any contract defaults, dealers said.

Nickel closed at a record peak of $29,200 on Wednesday as available stocks of metal in LME warehouses fell further, prompting the exchange to intervene overnight for the first time since 1988 by limiting cash premiums to $300 a day.

"Nickel stocks are at historically low levels and we now have a genuine material shortage. Our first priority is to ensure that trading remains orderly and to prevent the risk of settlement defaults," Simon Heale, LME Chief Executive, said on Wednesday.

The LME's special committee said anyone with a short position in nickel falling due from Friday who was unable to make physical delivery could defer for one day at a penalty of $300 per tonne.

Prices were expected to remain strong as stocks fell 42 tonnes to 6,120 tonnes on Thursday.

Of that, just 1,248 tonnes were available on uncancelled warrants to support the 1.3 million tonne-per-year market.

Dealers said stocks might hit zero.

ABN AMRO analyst Nick Moore said the value of available nickel in LME warehouses totalled $44 million.

"We have run out of nickel effectively. There is a massive squeeze in place and unless producers can be persuaded to put metal onto the exchange the pricing tension will remain acute," he said.

An LME spokesman said: "In the past stocks have never reached zero. The interaction of supply and demand has ensured that more material flowed into warehouse."

At 0946 GMT, nickel was at $28,200 after profit-taking.

"The market is very messy - verging on the disorderly, but the shorts have gotten off lightly at $300, I would have made them pay $1,000," a fund source said.

He said going short, or betting that prices would fall, was a very risky strategy.

"We have almost hit $30,000. I don't want to predict where prices will go, but the trend is very strong. I certainly wouldn't suggest going short," he said….

-END-

August 17, 2006

Hello Bill,
Re: UK government intervenes in nickel market to protect shorts

Check out the following article on the front page of today's Financial TImes, "LME intervenes in the nickel market after prices hit record." It is interesting to watch the government's pattern of intervention. It seems they are always protecting the shorts when it comes to real physical stuff and conversely the longs when it comes to paper assets. As mentioned by the GATA team several times recently, the silver situation appears similar - perhaps even more critical.

(As an aside, I can remember in the late 90's, thinking we had free markets and being oblivious to the PPT, I actually used to buy S&P 500 Puts to short the stock market. What a fool I was.)
Cheers,
Chris K

LME intervenes in the nickel market after prices hit record

By Chris Flood

Published: August 17 2006 03:00 | Last updated: August 17 2006 03:00

The London Metal Exchange, the world's biggest base metals exchange, was forced to make an extraordinary intervention in the nickel market yesterday to head off the risk of defaults on trades by speculators as the metal soared to a record high.

The three-month nickel price surged to its biggest one-day rise since January 2004, leaping 6.4 per cent to a record $29,200 (£15,300) a tonne amid what one analyst called "panic" covering of short positions, where traders bet on a fall in the metal's price…



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MessageRe: futures londres / nickel , gros pb de shortage !
par marie Sam 19 Aoû 2006 - 0:52

Bill,
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8210-2318156,00.html

This TIMES article clearly states that the LME has "rigged" the nickel market by rescuing the shorts. They also state that "Metal markets are plagued by manipulation attempts, such as the Sumitomo copper scandal." They start to sound like GATA! Perhaps we aren’t fringe conspiracy whacko’s after all!
Cheers Adrian

The nickel squeeze:

Bill,
http://za.today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=b
usinessNews&storyID=2006-08-18T104312Z_01_BAN838577_RTRID
ST_0_OZABS-MARKETS-METALS-20060818.XML
Bill,
Talk about a perfect set-up for a mega squeeze. This article states QUOTE "On Friday LME-monitored nickel stocks rose 36 tonnes to 6,156, but the amount of nickel available to the market on uncancelled warrants dropped to 870 tonnes or six hours of world consumption, from 1,248 tonnes on Thursday" END

Good grief! I am licking my chops waiting for the pundits to realize the same situation is looming in gold and silver!
Cheers
Adrian

Something to watch on that score:

Bill,
Next week we will start the September trading month on COMEX which is a "delivery" month so we should see a lot of volatility as the cartel try to protect their dwindling supplies. I fully expect them to be stuffed because supplies (or lack there of!) is their Achilles heel. The interesting one to watch will be silver which has vanishing inventory. There are only 5 delivery months for silver which are March, May, July, September, and December.
Cheers
Adrian

Bad news for the copper bears:

Bill,
The last few days the news has been filled with reports of copper falling on expectations that the Escondida strike would end. Obviously well planted by the desperate shorts. Now we find the talks have broken down and the strikers have shut down the mine!
Cheers
Adrian

ANTOFAGASTA, Chile, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Chile's Escondida, the biggest copper mine in the world, said late on Thursday it was suspending operations and breaking off talks as a strike by union workers entered its twelfth day.

The company said in a statement it was taking the measures because workers had blocked access roads to the mine for two days and had put at risk the health and security of people working there.

The mine, which produces 8 percent of the world's copper, is majority owned by BHP Billiton..

-END-

September copper closed up 7.7 cents at $3.4345.



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MessageRe: futures londres / nickel , gros pb de shortage !
par marie Mar 22 Aoû 2006 - 23:53

l'analyse de Butler sur le sujet

de fait et en permettant aux short de différer la livraison ( moyennant une prime ) , le LME/nickel est déja en default ..puisqu'il empeche - de fait - les longs et notamment les utilisateurs industriels de prendre livraison immédiate de la marchandise ...

c'est une rupture de contrat unilatérale qui va peser sur l'avenir de ce marché de futures ..et c'est précisément la définition du mécanime du défault !

une déconnection des cours papier et de la marchandise réelle ... via le défaut de livraison ..

quel est le long qui va etre désormais interessé à acheter du nickel sur les futures de londres , ds ces conditions???

http://www.investmentrarities.com/08-21-06.html

traduction google :
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.investmentrarities.com%2F08-21-06.html&langpair=en%7Cfr&hl=fr&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&prev=%2Flanguage_tools

ça ne vous rappelle rien ça??
Citation :
Take a gander at this article. There are only FIVE traders owning 85% of the Nickel short position with the biggest short holding 39%!! Now doesn’t that remind us of something that Ted Butler has been writing about in Silver?!! And isn’t that about the same size long position that BP held in propane contracts?…but that was called "manipulation" and the CFTC has filed suit against BP. When it is on the "short side" the LME steps in to cap the roll-over costs to prevent a "disorderly market". That is a euphemism for "the Cartel getting stuffed".

sur le nickel - LME , seuls 5 traders possédent 85% de la short position, le plus gros en possédant 39% , à lui seul .. mais c'est pas de la manip .. Wink ba voyons !!!

contrairement à BP qui détenait en LONG le même % sur les futures du propane ,din fev 2004 et contre qui , la CFTC a lancé une procédure pour manipulation et tentative de corner ..

aux releves cot/ comex-silver de juillet 2006 , les 4 plus gros commerciaux détenaient 88% de la net short position silver ..
au moins et contrairement aux régulateurs du LME / nickel , ceux du comex silver ne pourront pas dire qu'ils n'avaient pas été prévenus !!
http://www.hardinvestor.net/viewtopic.forum?t=4414



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