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Pourquoi et comment investir dans l’or et l’argent ? Plus qu’un placement d’opportunité, il s’agit avant tout de sécuriser le pouvoir d’achat de votre épargne contre l’érosion monétaire et les conséquences de la crise systémique mondiale, tout en déjouant les pièges que réserve le marché de l’or et de l’argent, à l’investisseur non averti.


 

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Revue de Presse de l'or et de l'argent / les indispensables

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MessageRevue de Presse de l'or et de l'argent / les indispensables
par marie Mar 22 Mar 2005 - 21:43

Fondamentaux or et argent/ les indispensables

dans cette rubrique seront regroupées les articles fondateurs et / ou indispensables au junior ,qui débarque sur ce secteur ..
ce que chacun d'entre nous - les anciens - aurions aimé avoir sous la main , quand nous avons débuté ..

pour vous faciliter les choses , un lien de traduction automatique est systématiquement proposé . sur la TOTALITE de cette file/ rubrique .


_____________

-1 Fondamentaux de l'argent métal  / analyses de G.Sandro ( en français)

Citation :
Cet article de synthèse à vocation pédagogique, sur les fondamentaux de l'argent, a été écrit en 2003 reprenant mes posts de Novembre 2002 /début 2003, le cours de l'argent était à 4.74$/oz...

pourquoi investir dans l'argent ?



______________


-2 Composition portefeuille or argent /Hamilton

comme son nom l'indique , il s'agit de la composition d'un portefeuille métaux précieux, or et argent , en fonction du dégré de risque




http://www.zealllc.com/2002/gold101.htm


pour la traduction google , cliquer ici

______________________

-3 Hamilton et le fameux "les larmes de la lune"

celui la , il ne se résume pas , un must pour découvrir tout les aspects de l'argent métal .. aprés ça vous comprendrez mieux , le pourquoi des 'larmes' de ce bandeau


http://www.zealllc.com/2000/silver.htm

pour la traduction google , cliquer ici


-4 L'intégrale de Ted BUTLER incontournable lien

http://www.investmentrarities.com/tb-archives.html

Citation :
citation G.Sandro

Quand je dis l'intégrale, ce n'est pas rigoureusement exact, c'est l'intégrale de ce qu'il a publié chez Investmentsrarities...mais il y a là de quoi passer quelques centaines d'heures de pure délectation...

Bien entendu, on commencera par le bas...( l'an 2000, puis 2001...) savatte de soie

je pense sérieusement pouvoir affirmer que j'ai lu 13 attentivement au moins 85 à 90% de tous ces liens...(il est possible que, vacances aidant, certains articles aient pu échapper à ma vigilante attention...et encore, ce n'est même pas certain)

Oui, je sais, c'est héroïque...mais en apparence seulement, car en réalité, j'y ai pris un plaisir évident ...

Plaisir que je vous offre donc sur un plateau.
Les gens de goût, les lucides et même les simples cupides de base iront directement archiver ça en ultra favori sur leur PC...c'est une question de bon sens...ce lien recèle une value incroyable.

prétendre parler d'argent métal sans avoir lu au moins 10 (ou mieux:15) articles du "Maître" relèverait de l'imposture...




globe

039 039 039

je souscris entiérement à ce que dit Sandro , et c'est - volontairement- que nous ne vous proposons pas quelques uns de ces fabuleux articles en exergue .. à vous de découvrir pas à pas. et à votre rythme ... 7 comme ça qu'on apprend le mieux .. et surtout qu'on se fait sa propre opinion ..



pour voir la suite c'est ici



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Dernière édition par marie le Ven 2 Jan 2015 - 17:06, édité 45 fois

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MessageRevue de Presse : Les Indispensables
par toza Mer 30 Mar 2005 - 23:26

super cette rubrique ! , j'aurais apprécié d'avoir ça sur un plateau , il y a quelques années . Quel kif !! ..

ci dessous , 2 indispensables 039 039 039 , à mon sens :

5- 78 raisons d'être un fan d'argent métal
Douglas Kanarowski, un des meilleurs, amah, sur le sujet avec Butler et Morgan
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0718.htm

pour la traduction google , cliquer ici


[size=18]6-et dans le même esprit , J . Embry sur l'or/size]


les 15 arguments fondamentaux , pour détenir de l'or et donc à fortiori des minières unhedgées , à fort effet de levier sur le métal .

http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary/2003-09-26.html

pour la traduction google , cliquer ici

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MessageRe: Revue de Presse de l'or et de l'argent / les indispensables
par toza Lun 31 Juil 2006 - 1:52

pour les débutants déjà un peu plus aguerris .. Wink et aussi pour les "fausses barbes" antisilver de "principe...

7- et plus particuliérement sur l'argent et le débat numérique /argentique

impact de la montée en puissance de la photo numérique sur la demande globale d'argent métal, excellente démonstration que la concurrence numérique /argentique n'a aucun effet baissier sur la demande globale d'argent métal.

démonstration points par points , comme il se doit ... 039 039 039


What Impact Will Digital Photography Have on Silver?
by Douglas Kanarowski
August 22, 2003

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0822.htm



pour la traduction google , cliquer ici
____________________

édition administration 21 oct 2006

à titre d'illustration de ce sujet , le chiffrage édifiant fait par Marie , sur forum public , en oct 2006


Argent métal /argentique- numerique

vous avez du entendre de ci de la certains baissiers sur l'argent métal qui crient au loup face à la baisse de la demande photo traditionnelle ( ou argentique ) ..via le numérique ,concluant par la que la demande globale silver est condamnée à terme

nous allons voir qu'encore une fois , ce genre de discours n'est pas argumenté et ne se fonde sur aucune réalité , mais plutôt sur des préjugés .. qui ont la vie dure


-1 composantes de la demande


la demande photo ne représente en 2005 que 18% de la demande globale et vient loin derriére les applications industrielles et le secteur bijouterie / argenterie

autrement dit , on accorde à ce secteur une importance tout à fait démesurée

dans le détail :

appli industrielle 44.88%
photo 18.07%
bijouterie et argenterie 27.37%
pieces et médailles 4.45%
investisement 5.20%


2-Quelles sont les conséquences effectives de la baisse de la demande du secteur photo argentique ?

Va-t'elle ou non conduire à une chute de la demande globale de l’argent et donc à une chute de prix ?

examinons l'évolution des chiffres 2004/2005 de plus prés ( source silver institute )

de 2004 à 2005 :


-la demande photo baisse de 181 à 164 .8 millions d'oz soit - 16.2 millions d'onces

-cette baisse est largement compensée par la hausse de la demande sur d'autres secteurs ( appli industrielles , bijouterie et demande d'investissement )

==> + 33.8 millions d'once hausse de la demande de 2004 à 2005

- le principal fournisseur d'argent recyclé est l'industrie de la photo, via l'argent récupéré lors du développement des pellicules ,des films et même du papier spécial servant à imprimer les photos . le tout étant remis dans le circuit de l'offre .


les chiffrages du recyclage silver de cette industrie font ressortir que 80% de la demande photo est recyclée dans le processus ( CPM group silver survey )
ce qui aboutit à dire que , la demande nette de ce secteur ne représente que 20% de la demande effective ... et ça ça change considérablement les données du problème .

si on tient compte de ce facteur TRES important et TOTALEMENT occulté par nos bears :

on obtient une chute NETTE de la demande de 20% x 16.2 millions d'once soit 3.24 millions d'once , seulement !


-3 conclusion , une hausse de la demande globale de 33.8 millions d'once , et une baisse de la demande nette photo de 3.24 millions , pas de quoi fouetter un chat !

mieux encore , en admettant et pour la démonstration seulement , que la demande photo disparait complétement ..

affraid

soit 164.8 millions d'once de demande en moins ..

la demande nette photo ne baissera , elle , et comme nous l'avons vu que de 20% .. puisque cette industrie ne fournira plus de silver en recyclage ...

soit une diminution de la demande nette de 32.96 millions d'once !

ce qui serait plus que compensé par l'augmentation de la demande "applications industrielles " de 41 millions d'once !

-4 donc et dans le pire des scénarios , absolument improbable nous aurions une demande globale STABLE ou légérement croissante .. et ceci sans tenir compte de l'évolution future favorable de la demande "applications industrielles "

autrement dit, la disparition TOTALE de la demande photo argentique ne represente
- qu'une diminution de 3.6% de la demande nette globale du silver ,
- largement compensée par l'évolution tres favorable de la demande industrielle en augmentation de 11% sur UNE seule année ,
- ce qui représente à elle seule une croissance de 4.66% de la demande GLOBALE .. sur UNE seule année



ceux d'entre vous qui voudraient approfondir ce sujet , feront profit de la lecture de cet article de Douglas Kanarowski , posté plus haut par Tozamoon

What Impact Will Digital Photography Have on Silver?


http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0822.htm



pour la traduction google , cliquer ici

dont je vous cite ici les conclusions , argumentées dans le détail

Citation :
Summary & Conclusions:

The nail-gun and hammer is a good working analogy that suggests co-existence and not replacement.

Silver photo usage has recently slowed but this is mostly attributed to Japan and to larger economic factors and not digital inroads.

Silver photographic usage is grossly overstated in the minds of most market participants. Accounting for recycling, only 96 million ounces are actually consumed and not the much larger 256 million-ounce figure widely believed.

Scrap silver objects (198 million ounces) that one would normally think would count for so much, don't amount to a hill of beanie babies compared to the 160 million ounces of that figure that are recycled from mostly color photography that has more than an 80% silver recovery rate.

Digital usage often incorporates silver at various points in the production/storage process.

When all costs are considered, of the two processes, digital is the more costly and complicated.

Digital growth has been fueled from WITHIN the larger, historical credit and consumption bubbles. Much smaller digital sales would have taken place had it not been for these bubbles. Due to much larger and more powerful economic considerations, the biggest percentage gains in digital may soon be behind us.

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Messagele silver / l'équation fatale
par marie Lun 16 Oct 2006 - 2:24



-8 Argent métal/Offre et demande, l'équation fatale




Argent métal / l'équation fatale

pour reprendre et chiffrer les analyses Argent métal de G.Sandro , un des TRES rares précurseurs en France , sinon le seul,développées dés 2002 ,sur bourso

ce qui caractérise l'argent métal c'est sa situation exceptionnelle sur 2 points précis qui ne sont que trop rarement abordés par ceux qui s'arretent aux seul chiffrage de l'offre et de la demande INDUSTRIELLE


-1 net short position cumulée sur le SEUL COMEX ( futures et options ) de l'ordre de pres d'un an de production mondiale , soit 500 millions d'once ( source janv 2004 Butler )
ce chiffrage ne prend pas en compte celui du marché des dérivés d'argent métal négociés en over the counter ( OTC) , ni même des autres marchés de futures ( 5 autres places mondiales traitent les futures de l'Argent ) ..ce qui fait qu'on peut le considérer comme un STRICT MINIMUM

iutile de dire que les éternelles arguties équation offre et demande industrielle de l'argent métal , qui ne tiennent pas compte de ce fait n'on absolument aucun interet .. et nous allons voir pourquoi

-2 le déficit chronique et orchestré depuis de tres nombreuses années a généré l'epuisement des stocks piles de nombreux pays ( y compris les usa )
cet élement est CAPITAL et trop svt oublié

ce déficit structurel d'argent métal est de 10.65 milliards d'once sur les 63 derniéres années
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/zurbuchen040906.html


nous allons voir maintenant en quoi ces 2 éléments vont jouer sur la situation actuelle de l'Offre et de la demande d'argent métal.

- 3 production mondiale d'argent métal :634 millions once ( 695 si on rajoute recyclage argent usagé via argentique , offre qui DIMINUERAIT avec la baisse de l'argentique )

- 4 deficit industriel chronique offre /demande Argent métal : entre 200 et 40/ 70 millions d'once , selon les périodes ( sources trés conservatrices de GFMS et de CPM ), pouvant etre porté à 250 millions avec les nouvelles applications industrielles de l'argent métal (cliquez sur le lien)

===> ce déficit O/D qui se produit depuis 63 ans ( même en période de faible demande de l'argent métal ) a eu pour conséquence de vider les réserves d'argent des états ( constituées de lingots et de piéces )


- 5 inventaires mondiaux d'argent métal : chiffres 2005

lingots : 300 millions
pieces 700 millions

soit un total de 1 milliard

on notera que l'argent physique, sous sa forme lingot a chuté de 2250 miilions d'once en 1999 à 300 millions en 2005 ( soit une perte de 1950 millions sur 6 ans )


source graphe Morgan réactualisé à 2005


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/morgan081905.html


si on rajoute à cet inventaire , les stocks d'argent consistant en argenterie et art , on pourrait arriver à pres de 25 milliards d'once ... mais cet argent la

-ne rentre pas sur le marché aux cours ridicules actuels , d'une part ,et d'autre part ,

- est chez des millions de particuliers , et sous de petites quantités à chaque fois
- ne peut satisfaire la demande d'argent "investissement"
- et en ce qui concerne la demande industrielle , est la aussi , impossible à récupérer facilement et économiquement
pour remplir les stocks vides d'un fondeur de métal , il faudrait que chaque particulier , disposant de quelques grammes ou kg d'argent ( sous forme de bijoux ou d vaisselle par ex ) prenne sa voiture , dépense du pétrole pour vendre un objet qui lui rapportera à peine de quoi payer son essence .., même pour des cours de l'once TRES sensiblement élevés par rapport au cours d'aujourd'hui

-6 l'équation fatale ...

l'utilisateur industriel d'argent métal , n'a que 2 sources d'approvisionnement : le marché des futures , où il demandera systématiquement livraison ... puisque sa demande n'est pas spéculative, mais bien physique
nous avons vu que le fondeur ne pourra pas fournir sa demande avec le silverware actuellement stocké chez les particuliers ...
reste donc les futures . et les stocks piles des états ..

déficit offre / demande industrielle :
en prenant le chiffre le plus bas , 70 millions d'once /an
en y ajoutant la net short position minimalisée ( comme nous l'avons vu ) qui représente une dette de physique, et qui sera forcément appelée par les industriels qui se fournissent sur les futures
et sans compter la concurrence avec la demande monétaire , qui elle aussi demandera livraison ...

nous avons déja un déficit de 570 millions d'once , pour un stock disponible immédiat de 1 milliard

== > reste donc en stock 430 millions d'once,

sur les seules 6 derniéres années les stocks ont fondu de 1.9 milliards soit 325 millions par an , en moyenne

je vous laisse deviner la suite !

___________________

9-ratio or / argent

ce topo a pour but de chiffrer la complexité des relations or / argent ..
consciente des limites d'un tel exercice (qui ne peut intégrer- bien évidemment- les facteurs géopolitiques futurs et les données psychologiques .. futures elles aussi ), je le juge néammoins indispensable à la nécessaire réflexion immédiate .. car anticiper " à vide " sans chiffrer serait se priver de certaines données techniques ou fondamentales , fort interessantes ..qu'il serait tout à fait regrettable d'occulter .

-1 données actuelles et historique

- le ratio du marché est de 51.20 pour 1 à l'heure actuelle ... ce qui signifie que pour un cours de l'once d'or de 580 $ , une once d'argent cote 11.32 $

- ce même ratio or /argent était de 16.66 pour 1 lors du pic des 2 métaux en 1980 ( 800 $ l'once d'or pour 48 $ l'once d'argent ) === >
ce qui signifie qu' aujourd'HUI et en appliquant ce ratio , l'once d'argent devrait coter 34.81 $

graph historique LT de ce ratio by courtesy of gold eagle ( ratio gold / silver en rouge , sur le graphe , prix de l'once de silver en bleu ) arreté à 2004
depuis le ratio a baissé à 51. 20 pour 1






la question est donc de savoir quel devrait etre le juste ratio aujourd'hui .... autrement dit de combien le cours de l'argent est dévalué par rapport à celui de l'or ..


-2 nous vous proposons 3 méthodes de calculs très differentes et toutes sans exception , sont extrement silver bullish
bien entendu, ce n'est surtout pas une prédiction et encore moins un quelconque objectif rigide sur le futur ratio or /argent , mais ça fait pour le moins réfléchir ... Wink

-a méthode par comparatif de production annuelle ( chiffres à fin 2004 ) :

or: 2600 T /an
argent : 19439 T / an
ce qui donne un ratio de 7.47 pour 1

580$ once d'or ==> 77.64 $ l'once d'argent

b- méthode Zurbuchen par comparatif des stocks disponibles sous toutes leur formes ( lingots , pieces , orfévrerie , argenterie et art )

or : 4.25 milliards d'once
argent : 24.99 milliards d'once

cette méthode est tres conservatrice puisqu'elle envisage le retour ds le circuit de l'argenterie et des objets d'art ...

soit un ratio de 5.88 pour 1

au cours de l'or actuel , l'once d'argent devrait donc coter 98.60$

http://www.silverinscripture.com/articles.php?id=38


-c méthode par comparaison des stocks pile d'or et d'argent physique ( lingots ET pieces )

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/morgan081905.html


or: 3 milliards d'onces
argent : 1 milliard d'onces

soit du 1 pour 3 !

si on considére et à juste titre que la demande d'investissement , celle qui va le plus augmenter ds la période future , est EXCLUSIVEMENT interessée par les lingots et piéces ( à l'exclusion de bijouterie or ou argent et de l'argenterie) , ce mode de comptabilisation n'est pas si absurde qu'il le parait au 1er abord

soit au cours actuel de l'or à 580 $ , un cours de l'argent à 1740 $

-3 conclusion
sans même retenir le dernier calcul , et en ne prenant que les 2 1eres méthodes

- on constate que le ratio ds les 2 cas sera inférieur à celui observé en 1980 , et qui parait -aujourd'hui- à l'amateur peu éclairé , pure folie spéculative


- que et toujours au cours actuel de l'or ( cad déja un prix largement sous évalué )

l'argent est sous évalué de 77.64$ à 11.32 $ soit un discount de 685% sur l'or !! méthode a

l'argent est sous evalué de 98.60$ à 11.32 $ soit un discount de 871% sur l'or , méthode b

le ratio 1980 , tant ridiculisé lui , offrait seulement un discount de 307%
34.81 $ pour 11.32 $ actuel


refaites ces calculs pour une once d'or à 700 , 800 , 1000 $ ou plus et vous comprendrez encore mieux , le potentiel énorme qu'offre l'argent métal au cours actuel !


on notera avec interet que notre ratio- actuel -de marché est tres proche de celui du cout de production , soit 60 pour 1


autrement dit , ce n'est pas parceque l'argent métal coute 60 fois moins cher à produire que l'or , qu'on va en produire 60 fois plus , ni même reconstituer des réserves 60 fois supérieures à celle de l'or !

ce qui est un parfait non sens ... qui ne prend en compte
- ni le déficit structurel de l'argent métal ,
- ni sa rareté ,
- ni même le fait que contrairement à l'or sa consommation industrielle aboutit à sa déplétition



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Dernière édition par marie le Ven 2 Jan 2015 - 17:22, édité 33 fois

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Messagerappel Offre / demande or ,le véritable chiffrage
par marie Lun 16 Oct 2006 - 2:32

-10 Offre / demande d'or ,le véritable chiffrage

il s'agit ici de rappeler l'équation réelle de l'offre et de la demande d'or , qui tient compte des fameux swaps ( prets ) des BC , non défalqués de leurs réserves d'or

ceci tout simplement , parceque la connaissance de cette équation permet d'anticiper la suite de l'histoire Wink avec une issue qui se rapproche à grands pas ..


un document de base , extrement complet a été publié par la banque Chevreux , sur ce sujet et ses implications .

http://www.hardinvestor.net/viewtopic.forum?t=3394

en résumé : ce rapport reprend et confirme les recherches du GATA :


-1 déficit annuel offre / demande : 1500 t / an

2- les bc n'ont pas les 32.000 tonnes d'or qu'elles prétendent avoir ( sources bidonnées de GFMS ne tenant pas compte des swaps ) == >

mais plutot 14000 T à 15000 T( le différentiel ayant été prété - via swaps -à des bullions banks ,qui shortent l'or sur le comex )

cette "petite " arnaque comptable vient du fait que les BC ne sont pas tenues de soustraire de leur stock , l'or qu'elles ont prété !! ( c'est ainsi que la Russie , alertée par le Gata ) a récemment découvert qu'elle possédait beaucoup moins d'or qu'elle ne le pensait .. une bonne partie ayant quitté ses coffres via pret ..75% des réserves ainsi évaporées )

http://www.hardinvestor.net/viewtopic.forum?t=2785

elles n'ont donc plus à l'heure actuelle de quoi combler le déficit annuel de 1500 tonnes par an , de maniere à freiner la hausse du métal .. et pire encore ..

3 - de plus , et du fait de leurs prets antérieurs , il y a une short position d'un minimum de 10.000 tonnes d'or sur le marché des dérivés ... qui demande - vu la hausse du métal - à etre couverte impérativement

ce malaise du cartel et de leurs véritables réserves est confirmé par le président de la BUBA qui vient de révéler ( 5 oct 2006 ) qu'il a été contacté par d'autres BC pour préter l'or de la buba, ce qu'il a refusé ...

http://www.hardinvestor.net/viewtopic.forum?t=5177

-4 par ailleurs , apres Greenspan , la BCE , barrick, la BC d'australie , c'est la BRI elle même ( Bque des reglements internationaux - BIS en anglais ) qui reconnait les faits

voir à cet effet tout les liens précis relatifs à ce sujet :

http://www.gata.org/node/4237
http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/4

-5 en outre , le FMI a reconnu lui même et en avril 2006 , le mode tres spécial de comptabilisation de leur or par les BC

Citation :
ISSUES PAPER (RESTEG) # 11

TTREATMENT OF GOLD SWAPS AND GOLD DEPOSITS (LOANS)

Prepared by Hidetoshi Takeda, IMF Statistics Department

April 2006

…14. Regarding the statistical treatment of gold swaps, its treatment should be consistent with that of other reverse transactions, as presented in paragraph 7 above. Thus, swapped gold should be excluded from both reserve assets and IIP (demonetization). This is a logical consequence, and overstating of reserve assets can be avoided. On the other hand, this results in a decrease in the financial assets of the monetary authorities.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/bop/pdf/resteg11.pdf

ce qui n'a pas échappé au financial express du 7 juin 2006 Wink

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=129715

6- conclusion

selon les estimations trés conservatrices de Veneroso Associates , effectuées dès 2001 , à ce rythme , le cartel serait à court d'or d'ici 6 ans ... cad d'ici 2007 you see what i mean ?


- 7 pour terminer , l'ensemble de ce dossier est détaillé sur le DVD du gata , disponible ici

www.GoldRush21.com.

présentation du DVD , extraits gratuits etc

http://www.hardinvestor.net/viewtopic.forum?t=3002



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Dernière édition par marie le Ven 15 Avr 2011 - 17:11, édité 1 fois

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MessageRe: Revue de Presse de l'or et de l'argent / les indispensables
par marie Dim 1 Mar 2009 - 18:24

-11 Pourquoi investir sur l'or? / et sur l'argent?

un excellent topo d' Adrian Douglas, qui reprend les principaux mérites comparés de gold et silver..


www.lemetropolecafe.com

Gold – Cutting Through the Proverbial!
By Adrian Douglas

I read so many reasons why investors should not invest in gold. But when you cut through the proverbial most of them turn out to be the very reasons why gold is such a good investment! The anti-gold rhetoric is usually more revealing of the dismal lack of understanding on the part of the analyst than it is about gold as an investment. We will look at many of the things that are commonly said and cut through the proverbial:-
1) Gold has no use
This is almost true. Gold has quite a few uses in industrial applications such as for corrosion resistant electrical contacts, electronics, dentistry, brazing alloys, etc. But the uses represent very few ounces and it is nearly all recyclable so there is no net consumption of gold.
So we can agree that gold is not mined specifically for an industrial application. It is mined as a store of wealth. The function of gold is to store wealth so as such it has no “use”. In this sense I am employing the word “use” to mean an application where gold is consumed. If it had a significant use it would compete with its function as a store of wealth. (We will look at the special case of silver later on).
It is often said that gold is “used” in jewelry. This is not true. Most of the gold jewelry by weight that is sold in the world is 18 carat or higher. It is a store of wealth that can also be decorative and portable. In the Eastern hemisphere gold buyers like to be able to carry it around with them while in the West gold buyers like to keep it in vaults. But the purpose of storage of wealth is the same. This gold jewelry can be sold back to dealers just as easily as a gold bar or a gold coin. Very little gold by weight is sold in “trinkets” which is cheap jewelry that uses low carat gold plating.
2) All the gold ever mined is still available above ground making gold a risky investment
It is true that almost all the gold ever mined still exists above ground. This goes back to point #1 that gold is not consumed. This does not make gold a risky investment; on the contrary it shows that no wealth stored in gold has ever been lost in the whole of human history. This can not be said if you had stored your wealth in shares of Enron or the Louisiana Company or the South Sea Company or Bear Stearns etc. All the shares that were ever issued no longer exist, because the companies no longer exist…much to the chagrin of the investors!
The function of gold is to be hoarded. The fact that almost every ounce ever produced has been hoarded and is still hoarded today means that gold is fulfilling perfectly its function! Gold can be “hoarded” to store wealth with no detrimental effects on normal economic activity. This is because gold has “no use’ so hoarding it has no impact on industry. If on the other hand, people were to hoard all gasoline production, the economy would come to a stand-still.
Detractors of gold will cite the fact that there are 130,000 tonnes of gold above ground. The implication is that a large amount of this can be dumped on the market. All the Picasso’s ever produced are still on earth. If you owned a Picasso would you be afraid that all the Picasso’s would be dumped?!
What one has to remember is that gold is for accumulation. Dumping of thousands of tons of gold therefore is inconceivable. When some hoarder of gold sells gold the buyer is going to hoard it! So even if a lot of gold were to be sold it would just be accumulated by someone else.
When the Bank of England sold 300 tonnes of gold is was viewed by many analysts as negative for gold because the Bank was dishoarding. What was not emphasized was that somebody else bought it and it is hoarded somewhere else!
Gold Doesn’t Pay an Interest
This criticism is unadulterated deception.
NOTHING can act as a store of wealth AND earn interest. You can loan out your gold and get paid an interest but now it is not a store of wealth because it has gone. It has become a receivable; a liability. If it is not returned then ALL your wealth will have been lost.
It is the same with currency. If you deposit your currency in a bank in an interest bearing account the currency will be loaned out to other customers. It is not a store of wealth because you may not get your currency returned if the bank defaults. Interest can only be earned on reserves if they are mobilized…but then they are not reserves! Gold has to be compared with dollars under the mattress, not with dollars on deposit. Neither pay interest.
Why does anyone accumulate gold? If you want to store wealth, which means the reserves are NOT put to work, then accumulating gold is much more preferable to accumulating a fiat currency. A fiat currency will nearly always have an increasing supply of more than 3% per year. With time this inflates away the purchasing power of any currency that is stored under the mattress. The purchasing power of gold is almost constant as the amount of new gold mined each year is small compared to the total above ground stock.
By paying interest on deposits and publishing government massaged price inflation indicators, such as the CPI, deceptively leads people to the wrong conclusion that they can beat inflation with the interest earned.
Gold is a Barbarous Relic
This is the misquoted statement of John Maynard Keynes. He actually referred to the “Gold Exchange Standard” as a barbarous relic, not gold bullion. Any way many gold detractors love to misquote Keynes to prove their point. The only way to buy gold is to exchange something for it. Typically this is the national currency of the country you are in. This means that because the ONLY function of gold is to store wealth, the price of gold reflects the comparative attraction of having reserves in gold or in the national currency.
This is why governments hate gold. Gold is the arbiter of their dismal lack of self-discipline with regards to over-issuance of fiat currency. A price rise in any other commodity can be explained away. For example, a rise in crude oil can be spun positively saying this is due to rising demand because the economy is doing so well, as opposed to more paper dollars chasing fewer barrels. i.e. inflation!
A rising gold price means that it is less and less attractive to hold the currency. It is as simple as that.
Gold is no longer a safe haven! It hasn’t even kept pace with inflation in recent years.
It is true that the gold price is currently more than 50% below the price it should be if the price were adjusted for even the Government’s grossly understated measure of inflation. This implies that free market forces are being suppressed in some way.
The majority of the 130,000 tonnes of gold that exists is held by “hoarders” who are storing wealth to protect it against the ravages of mismanaged national currencies. If this were the only source of gold then the price would be orders of magnitudes higher than today. Why? Because a potential hoarder would have to offer a large amount of fiat currency units to persuade another hoarder to dishoard. When an “old master” goes to auction, art collectors must bid high prices to get it from the collector who owns it. If a famous artist is alive his work can be bought at a much lower price than will have to be paid in the market after he dies because the artist does not want to collect his own work. On the contrary he wants to sell it. When the artist dies the prices rise rapidly because then the only source of supply is from people who want to accumulate art.
The only source of additional gold is from mining. Just like our analogy of the art world, the miners do not want to hoard gold. They want to sell it.
But just like our art analogy the artist is dying! Figure 1 shows that gold mining production has peaked. South Africa, the previous largest producer, saw gold production decline 13.6% in 2008 and is now producing at the lowest rate in 86 years. This should have made the gold price go up in leaps and bounds especially when fiat currency issuance has gone into over-drive in a vain attempt to prop up flagging economies which has boosted demand for gold.

Figure 1

.../...



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Dernière édition par marie le Dim 1 Mar 2009 - 18:30, édité 2 fois

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MessageRe: Revue de Presse de l'or et de l'argent / les indispensables
par marie Dim 1 Mar 2009 - 18:25

.../...

If the price of gold has not risen in line with the massive increase in fiat currency in the face of declining mine supply then some other supply is compensating for this. The only other major source of gold is from the Central Banks. GATA estimates that Central Banks have dishoarded over 50% of their gold reserves through surreptitious leasing and selling of gold in the last 15 years – that translates to 15-18 thousand tons.
There exists another two classes of participant in the gold market. People who do not want to store their own wealth but want to speculate on what the gold price will do depending on other people wanting to store their wealth. These participants deal in derivatives such as futures and options. Then there are the people who want to store their wealth in gold, and believe that they are doing so, but they purchase some sort of gold substitute.
Central banks dishoarding translates to around 1250 tonnes of gold on average each year. This alone compared to a peak in mine output of 2500 tonnes per year is a massive supply. However, this is not the whole story. By using this supply to back short selling in the futures market the amount of apparent extra gold supply can be made to look astronomic. Only about 5% of futures contracts stand for delivery. This means that 1000 tonnes of gold can be used to sell 20,000 tonnes of gold futures and still be able to deliver on 5% of them! You can imagine how this suppresses the price of gold!
Governments and Central Banks work together. They want to be able to take a part of the wealth of their citizens without direct taxation. Inflating the currency supply is the age old method. Modern day central bankers are much smarter criminals than their counterparts of yesteryear. They not only inflate the currency but they intervene in markets to try to hide their scam. This is what is behind the so called “strong dollar” policy instigated by Robert Rubin. Since 1995 the money supply has been recklessly increased (and is now going into turbo-charged overdrive to bail out the banks) but the gold price has been suppressed to mask this fraud. Foreigners have been duped into selling real goods in exchange for dollars based on the belief that the dollar market value was its free market value.
Just like all scams the gold price suppression will come to an end. In a recent article by Paul Craig Roberts he said:
“How long can the US government protect the dollar's value by leasing its gold to bullion dealers who sell it, thereby holding down the gold price?”
http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts02242009.html
As he was Assistant Treasury Secretary under Reagan I would guess he is well connected enough to know this to be true as GATA has shown by a mountain of evidence over the last ten years.
But the bankers got greedy. This scam was not just used to mask inflation and provide cosmetic surgery on the dollar. The bankers have leveraged on this “sure thing” with trillions of dollars of exotic instruments called derivatives issued in unregulated OTC markets. The financial world has transformed into a bloodsucking parasite that is many times bigger than the host animal…the world’s productive economy! In monumental misguided policy the US Government and many other governments are choosing to print trillions of dollars and other paper currencies to continue to feed the parasite instead of letting it die or mutate back to a small symbiotic parasite.
Many people are recognizing the urgency to move their wealth into gold to protect themselves from the debilitating hyperinflation that will be wrought upon us.
These investors want to own physical gold. Retail gold outlets are having difficulty finding available supply. Government mints are rationing supply. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that more investors are taking delivery on futures contracts. Deliveries on gold contracts rose to 4.5% in December from 3.4% the previous year.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123552294962865061.html
The suppression of the gold price relies on the fact that speculators who trade futures contracts for settlement of their gains in cash far out number the number of investors that want to hoard physical gold to store their wealth. Just at a time when Central Banks have dishoarded more than half their gold, massive demand is showing up. The leverage through the use of futures will be of no use against people who want the real thing. As the suppression becomes more and more unsustainable the price of gold will rise to reflect the true desirability of physical gold compared to an over-issued dollar, free of the distortion of a massive trade in unbacked paper gold promises.
No significant portion of the 130,000 tonnes will come to market. The price will be governed by how many trillions of dollars chase after just 70 Million ounces of declining annual production.
Although this article was essentially to address myths about gold I will also make some observations about silver. In silver the situation is different. Silver has many industrial uses. These uses “consume” silver. Of the 900 million ozs of annual demand less than 10% is hoarded for investment purposes. Industrial use has for many years depressed the price of silver but that will soon change.
If a large mining industry has developed to be able to output 900 Mozs per year then even a 50% increase in investment demand could easily be accommodated as this would only mean a 5% increase in total silver mine output. But here is the dirty little secret. Mine output is NOT 900 Mozs. It is only 675 Mozs and declining. So 225 Mozs are supplied from silver that has been mined in the past and had been hoarded as a store of wealth. This deficit between supply and demand is generally accounted for in various official statistics as coming from recycling. If this were true then how do we account for the fact that stocks of above ground silver have dropped by 90% in the last 70 years? In the 1940’s there were 10 billion ozs of silver above ground. Half were owned by the US Government. Total above ground stockpiles have dropped to 1 billion ozs and the US Government has none. Clearly recycling has not been filling the entire gap between mine output and demand; previously mined stock piles have been filling the gap otherwise there would still be 10 billion ozs in stockpiles! Of the 1 Billion ozs of silver in stock piles less than 400 Mozs are available for purchase.
Just like in gold, silver prices are suppressed by leveraging physical supplies of silver on futures exchanges. The silver short position on the COMEX is almost one year of global silver production. Typically less than 5% of futures trades were settled in physical silver. In December this rose to 7.3%. As more investors take delivery it is not difficult to imagine that 200 Mozs of extra silver supply could be demanded this year. This would take global annual demand to 1.1 Bozs. Seventy percent of silver production comes as a byproduct of base metal mining. The global economic contraction is dramatically reducing base metal demand. It would not be unreasonable to assume that silver production will drop by, say, 12% to 600 Mozs. How can 1.1 Bozs of demand be met with 600 Mozs of mine output and 400 Mozs from stockpiles? Even if this year it is just possible clearly next year it will not be!
Because all the gold ever mined still exists if an investor is prepared to pay a high enough price he will be able to buy gold. In silver almost all the silver ever mined has been consumed! There is no price that will allow anyone to buy it back. But unlike gold, silver has essential uses. This means that the competition between users and investors will drive silver prices to unimaginable highs. Just last year Rhodium reached a high of $10,000/oz having been at $300/oz just five years earlier. This epic price move did not make the front page of any news publication. So when we talk of epic moves in the precious metals that will make front page news we are necessarily talking about very big multiples!
The precious metals market dynamics boil down to this: In the past it has been possible to satisfy investor demand for precious metals with a small amount of bullion and a large amount of paper substitutes. In doing so the price of precious metals has been suppressed. The motive was to have an artificially overvalued dollar to allow payment of international bills for imported goods and pay for military adventurism. The global imbalances created by this scam have ultimately led to the current collapse of the house of cards. The global response is to fight the over-issue of currency, debt and derivatives with more currency, debt and derivatives. As a result more and more investors want to protect their wealth by purchasing precious metals. The gravity of the crisis has frightened so many investors that fewer and fewer are willing to accept paper substitutes. This is occurring when Central banks are running low on gold and global mine output is in terminal decline. As this perfect storm hits it will make the Madoff scandal look like someone stole the money from the Boy Scout Summer Camping Trip Fund.
Precious metals are a store of wealth. The market price of these metals has been suppressed. The unwinding of this scam will offer not only wealth protection but unimaginable multiplication in purchasing power.
Adrian Douglas
February 25, 2009
www.marketforceanalysis.com

Market Force Analysis is a unique analysis method which provides reliable indications of market turning points and when is a good time to enter, take some profits or exit a market. Subscribers receive bi-weekly bulletins on the markets to which they subscribe.



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MessageRe: Revue de Presse de l'or et de l'argent / les indispensables
par marie Ven 27 Mar 2009 - 23:01

-12 Pourquoi posséder de lor et de l'argent, du vrai : du physique?
Adrian Douglas

cliquer pour lire le pdf , ici



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MessageIS SILVER MORE PRECIOUS THAN GOLD? Ratio, Value, Bref rappel fonda
par g.sandro Jeu 1 Oct 2009 - 19:10

On vous l'a dit et répété, alors, pourquoi y revenir?

Tout simplement parce qu'il y a chaque jour de nouveaux lecteurs qui comprennent et aussi parce que ce court article est pédagogique, bref mais bien expliqué, il est accessible aux non initiés.


Il a sa place dans la page Silver àmha

IS SILVER MORE PRECIOUS THAN GOLD?

Bill Murray

When one is doing a comparison of items as to their value a lot depends on the circumstances one is in. For example if you are lost in the desert and dying of thirst, water becomes very precious, yet it is one of the most abundant things on the planet.

Why is gold a $1000.00 per ounce and silver $17.00 per ounce when;

We have more gold above ground than silver.

We consume silver and store gold. One-day silver will be very scarce.

If you were in the hospital with 3rd degree burns what would you rather have, an ounce of gold or silver? Silver kills bacteria and can save your life. One wonders why silver is not used for the swine flue, if it really is a threat. [Can’t put a patent on silver maybe] Check out colloidal silver at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colloidal_silver .

Silver is about 10 times more plentiful in the earths crust then gold, why is it not 10 to 1 in price?

Silver is money same as gold, in the US Constitution a dollar is defined as 371.25 grains of silver. [400 grains per ounce] When Iraq was putting together their constitution, Jay Leno said, “Send them ours [constitution] as we are not using it any more”. How true.

In 1900 there was 1 billion oz. of gold above ground at $20.00 per oz. = 20 Billion

In 1900 there was 12 billion oz. of silver above ground at $0.65 per oz. = 7.8 Billion

Ratio was $20.00 divided by $0.65 = 30 oz. silver to 1 oz of gold

Ratio in market cap is 20 billion divided by 7.8 billion = 2.56 to 1

The Total amount of gold was worth 2.5 times more than silver in 1900

In 2009 there is approx. 5 billion oz. of gold at $1000.00 = 5 trillion dollars

In 2009 there is approx. 1 billion oz. of silver at $17.00 per oz. = 17 billion dollars

Ratio is $1000.00 divided by $17.00 = 58 to 1

Ratio in market cap is 5 trillion dollars divided by 17 billion dollars = 294 to 1

The Total amount of gold is worth approximately 294 times more than silver in 2009.

If we used 1900’s market cap at 2.5 to 1, silver’s price today would be, 5 trillion dollars worth of gold divided by 2.5 = 2 trillion dollars [silvers value] divided by 1 billion ounces of silver = $2000.00 per ounce.

Note: [I believe more silver would appear with higher prices, this is only meant to show how undervalued silver is]

Saying silver is undervalued is an understatement of the century, both gold and silver’s true cost of production is probably double their current price when you add all the other costs of exploration and such. Currency creation will drive the prices a lot higher in the near future and also one day soon, silver will be priced for its rarity and not for its cost of production as most silver is a by-product from gold, copper and zinc mines.

Getting back to the title of this article, is silver more precious than gold? Society today would have a hard time without silver as we consume it in so many products. I believe silver is more precious than gold, as to the value today, gold is more valuable in dollar terms. A more realistic dollar value today for gold would be $3000.00 per ounce and silver at $300.00 per ounce. This is a 10 to 1 ratio, common sense tells us that the ratio will turn in silvers favour in the future.

Check out these site’s as no one has done more for educating investors about silver and gold than Jim Sinclair at www.jsmineset.com or Ted Butler at www.butlerresearch.com or Bill Murphy at www.LeMetropoleCafe.com or Jason Hommel at www.silverstockreport.com/

The name SILVER is so precious no other word in the English language rhymes with it.

Wm. J Murray
President Silver Phoenix Resources Inc.
CNSX: SP

“From the prospector comes the salt of the earth”
: W J Murray



Silver is king, Go Gold !
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MessageRe: Revue de Presse de l'or et de l'argent / les indispensables
par marie Mer 4 Nov 2009 - 0:17

un autre excellent et pédagogique plaidoyer pour acheter de l'argent métal

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1257267140.php



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Dernière édition par marie le Ven 15 Avr 2011 - 17:17, édité 1 fois

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Messagecontre les idées reçues !
par marie Jeu 26 Nov 2009 - 0:09

un des préjugés les plus fréquents contre l'argent métal, est que celui ci, contrairement à l'or n'a jamais été utilisé comme monnaie officielle et légale ..

préjugé particuliérement répandu chez les occidentaux .. qui ignorent tout du brillant et glorieux passé de l'argent, sur d'autres continents ..

et pourtant :

Citation :
Yet silver has been used as money more often, in more places, and for longer periods of time than even gold. This is difficult for most Western readers to absorb, yet as Milton Friedman said in 1993,




"The major monetary metal in history is silver, not gold."



l'argent métal a plus souvent , plus longtemps et dans plus de pays, été utilisé comme monnaie, que l'or

c'est un point difficile à intégrer pour les lecteurs occidentaux.. point confirmé par cette citation de Milton Friedman en 1993



le principal métal monétaire de l'histoire, c'est l'argent métal, pas l'or





sourcehttp://news.silverseek.com/SilverInvestor/1204906825.php



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Dernière édition par marie le Dim 27 Mar 2011 - 23:04, édité 1 fois

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MessageRe: Revue de Presse de l'or et de l'argent / les indispensables
par marie Mer 6 Jan 2010 - 13:41

une excellente synthése de Pascal Roussel, expert à la BEI

quand l'or physique se prépare à prendre sa revanche, et notamment le § intitulé :

quand les banques vendent de l'or inexistant



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MessageBonne synthèse de rappel Fonda SILVER
par g.sandro Jeu 18 Mar 2010 - 23:16

Bonne synthèse de rappel Fondamental de l'argent métal

l'article date de quelques mois, mais il est intemporel..., c'est un peu ce que j'écrivais en français il y a 7 ou ans

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/obyrne110309.html



Silver is king, Go Gold !
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MessageRe: Revue de Presse de l'or et de l'argent / les indispensables
par marie Sam 12 Juin 2010 - 13:57

John Embry / 17 raisons de posséder de l'or

http://www.sprott.com/docs/Reports/reasons_to_own_gold.pdf



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Messageratio silver par Isi fgriedman
par marie Jeu 23 Sep 2010 - 14:23

sur l'argent métal .. à lire et à relire , un ancien topo de Israel Friedman ( l'or était à l'époque juste au dessus des 900 $ ) , le mentor de Butler .. excellement traduit en français

je sais, vous allez halluciner en lisant ça ...
Citation :
A un moment ou un autre, d’ici 15 à 20 ans, le prix de l’argent sera 5 fois plus élevé que le prix de l’or.
certains purs goldeux et réfractaires à l'argent métal ..n'apprécieront pas non plus de voir appeler leur métal favori , second couteau de l'argent .. j'en ris d'avance .. gentiment, hein ..

mais lisez attentivement son argumentaire ..

http://www.24hnewgold.com/francais/actualite-or-argent-l-argent-va-devenir-le-premier-des-metaux-precieux.aspx?contributor=Chroniques de l'Argent&article=1104800924G10020&redirect=False

merci de faire un copié coller intégral du lien, trop long pour etre directement cliquable .

et en effet 'article originel date de février 2008 .. ils sont pénibles sur 24 h gold, de ne jamais indiquer les dates de parution des articles qu'ils traduisent .
l'article reste néammoins plus que d'actualité au niveau des arguments avancés

http://silver-owl.blogspot.com/2008/02/israel-friedman-on-silver.html



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Dernière édition par marie le Ven 15 Avr 2011 - 17:18, édité 2 fois

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MessageRe: Revue de Presse de l'or et de l'argent / les indispensables
par marie Mar 22 Fév 2011 - 0:35

cours de l'argent métal à 34$
6 raisons d'acheter de l'argent métal, maintenant, et ce en dépit du prix élevé


******************




Six reasons for you to purchase silver now, despite high prices
Published: Sunday, Feb 20, 2011, 23:17 IST
By Chandni Burman | Agency: DNA
Silver prices have been going up for a while. On Saturday, Silver closed at an all-time high of Rs 48,700. In the last one year, silver has given a return of around 100% in dollar terms and 84% in rupee terms.
Still, it makes sense to buy silver. Here are six good reasons: 1. China has turned net importer
China, the biggest commodity guzzler in the world, is importing silver big time. In fact, in 2005, China exported 100 million ounces of silver (one troy ounce = 31.1 grams). In 2010, five years down the line, the country has turned a net importer, importing 122.6 million ounces, which is around 14% of the global production.

Now, we all know the impact China has on the price of a commodity it takes fancy to. India, the biggest consumer of gold and silver in the world, imported 1,200 tonnes of silver in 2010, up 20% from the previous year. This increase in imports has largely been attributed to increase in the price of gold, thus making gold jewellery very expensive.This has made people in these countries turn to silver jewellery. In fact, as the price of silver keeps going up, more and more people are likely to take fancy to silver jewellery. 2. Supply demand mismatch
This is a very basic point, which is behind every price rise. Silver demand is more than silver supply, and thus the prices have been on a run. The Silver Institute, which tracks silver supply, reports that from 2000 to 2009 (the latest data available), the supply of silver went up to 709.6 million ounces, up from 591 million ounces. This shows an increase of around 2% per year.

Data from the CPM group shows that mine production rose to 741.5 million ounces in 2010 (up around 4% from 2009).
Silver demand in 2009 stood at around 889 million ounces and the difference between supply and demand was largely met out of scrap sales. Given this, nearly 19% of silver demand is being meant out of scrap sale. This is not sustainable. 3. No recycling of silver
One way to increase supply is to recycle silver like gold has been over the years. Silver is largely used as an industrial metal. It is a very good conductor of electricity, the best heat transfer agent and reflector of light, a very good lubricant, catalyst and alloy. But it is used in very small amounts as an industrial metal. Given this, it is not easy to recycle silver.

Also, at its current price, it is not monetarily feasible to recycle silver. Experts are of the view recycling will become monetarily feasible only once the price of silver crosses around $50 per ounce (currently it quotes at around $32-33 per ounce). Given these reasons, increasing sale of silver scrap is not very easy. 4. Not easy to ramp up production
Experts who closely track silver believe the world is running out of silver. The most vociferous of this lot, Adrian Douglas, the proprietor of Market Force Analysis and also a director of GATA (the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee), has gone on record to say the world will run out of silver in 2020, and thus become the first element of the periodic table to become extinct.

Theodore Butler, silver analyst, Butler Research, has said in the past that silver inventories have declined from 10 billion ounces (one ounce equals 31.1 grams) in 1940 to 1 billion ounces today. In comparison, gold inventories stand at a total around 5 billion ounces. So, if we were to believe these experts, there is five times more gold on this earth than silver. But does that reflect in the price of these metals? Certainly not.
This decreasing inventory cannot be built up through increase in production. The earth’s crust has around 17 times more silver than gold. Despite this, silver production cannot be ramped up quickly. The primary reason for this is that it is rare to find a pure silver deposit. Hence, nearly two thirds of the silver that is mined comes as a by-product of mining other metals, like copper, zinc and lead. So, increased production of silver in turn depends on the price of the other metals it is co-mined with.
Also, the silver "mine-cycle" is around 10 years, i.e. the time it takes from starting to explore for silver and until the mine finally begins to produce silver. Over the years, the low price of silver has ensured that the mining companies haven’t gotten around to looking for silver. 5. New uses of silver
As mentioned earlier, silver has lots of industrial uses, given that it is the most malleable and ductile metal, after gold. Silver is currently used in electrical applications like conductors, switches, fuses etc. It is also used in photography, and silver alloys are used as cathodes in batteries. Interestingly, the new uses of silver keep growing.

As a recent report from Hinde Capital points out, "As a bactericide, silver is used in water purification and air handling systems. Silver is also a natural biocide and is very effective against bacterial infections such... New products using silver’s biocidal qualities are being developed each year; clothing, bandages, toothbrushes, door-knobs (flu-protection), keyboards, the list goes on growing."
All this will ensure the demand for silver keeps growing. 6. The investment argument
Investors are gradually realising the potential of silver. This has led to an increased demand for silver coins as well as exchange traded funds worldwide. The US Mint sold more than 6.4 million silver eagles this January —- the highest sales in a single month since the coin was introduced way back in 1986.

Eric Sprott, who runs Canada-based Sprott Hedge Fund and who recently launched a silver fund, made a very interesting point during an interview. His new fund entered the market to buy 1 million ounces of physical silver. The silver wasn’t readily available and it took the fund nearly 10 weeks to acquire the entire lot.
Now, this was the impact of just one fund. Imagine what would happen once a few more silver funds are launched.
In fact, data from the Silver Institute shows that the investment demand for silver went up by a whopping 184% to 136.9 million ounces in the year 2009 (the latest data i.e. available).
Moral of the story: Buy silver.

The writer works in the financial services industry and can be reached at chandniburman@yahoo.com. Views are personal.

http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_six-reasons-for-you-t
o-purchase-silver-now-despite-high-prices_1510753



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Dernière édition par marie le Ven 15 Avr 2011 - 17:19, édité 2 fois

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MessageL'argent métal est l'investissement de la décennie
par marie Jeu 10 Mar 2011 - 15:46

L'argent métal est l'investissement de la décennie : démonstration en 8 points

excellent et tout récent article, qui sort au moment où us mint lance un sondage pour produire des silver eagles en toc

http://www.lewrockwell.com/slavo/slavo31.1.html



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MessageRe: Revue de Presse de l'or et de l'argent / les indispensables
par marie Jeu 24 Mar 2011 - 22:11

Guide de l'argent métal , absolument incontournable :

pourquoi l'argent métal?

http://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-bullet-and-the-silver-shield


que faire et ne surtout pas faire, quand on investit sur l'argent physique?



http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/06/i-get-it-now-a-beginners-to-guide-to-inv



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MessageRe: Revue de Presse de l'or et de l'argent / les indispensables
par marie Sam 9 Avr 2011 - 1:47

Investir sur les minières argent / Jeff Nielson

un brillant topo sur le fondamental des actions minières argentifères.. qui vous donnera envie de vous lancer ou de renforcer Wink

c'est en 6 parties .. et je vous renvoie donc à la file dédiée sur le sujet

fondamentaux / spécial minières silver



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MessageThe Truth About Silver and Inflation: La vérité au sujet de l'argent et l'inflation
par g.sandro Dim 17 Avr 2011 - 23:36

The Truth About Silver and Inflation : La vérité au sujet de l'argent et l'inflation

http://inflation.us/silvertruth.html



Silver futures surged today to a new 31-year high of $42.80 per ounce. Silver is up 146% since NIA declared silver the best investment for the
next decade on December 11th, 2009, at $17.40 per ounce. All we need is for silver to rise by another 15.5% and silver will reach its all time high set in 1980 of $49.45 per ounce.

Keep in mind, silver's high of $49.45 per ounce in 1980 would equal about
$140 per ounce in today's dollars adjusted to the consumer price index and about $400 per ounce in today's dollars adjusted to the real rate of price inflation.


Despite silver's huge gains in recent months, we have yet to see silver rise by $2 or more in a single day. When we start to see a true "silver mania" with investors around the world rushing out of their U.S. dollars and panic buying silver, we expect to see silver gain by $5 to $10 in a single day on more than one occasion.

Back in February of last year when silver dipped to below $15 per ounce, we sent out an alert saying, "NIA believes this is a once in a lifetime entry point for those wishing to go long silver at a bargain basement price". NIA suggested silver call options in February of last year that ended up gaining over 1,000%.

NIA's latest silver stock suggestion is currently up 175% from our profile
price.
In NIA's top 10 predictions for 2010, we predicted a major decline in the
gold/silver ratio, which was 64 at the time. The gold/silver ratio declined in
2010 down to 46, and in our top 10 predictions for 2011, we predicted another major decline in the gold/silver ratio and projected for it to decline this year to 38. NIA has been the most bullish organization in the world on silver, yet recent gains in the price of silver have surpassed even our short-term expectations. The gold/silver ratio is now down to 35 and we believe it will decline to at least 16 this decade, and possibly as low as 10.
The artificially high gold/silver ratio of the past century will be looked
back at as an anomaly caused by the silver price suppression scheme of the
Federal Reserve, which was in cahoots with Bear Stearns and now JP Morgan. NIA's President Gerard Adams exposed this scheme in NIA's critically acclaimed documentary 'Meltup', which has now been viewed by over 1 million people with an overwhelming 96% of its viewers giving it a thumbs up, a world record for an economic documentary. According to Mr. Adams, the Federal Reserve chose to bail out Bear Stearns and not Lehman Brothers, because Bear Stearns was the holder of a massive naked short position in silver that they were on the verge of being forced to cover.

It is not a coincidence that Bear Stearns failed on the very day silver
reached its then multi-decade high of $21 per ounce. Bear Stearns was on the verge of being forced to cover their naked short position, which could have sent silver from $21 per ounce to $50 per ounce overnight. By bailing out Bear Stearns and allowing JP Morgan to acquire Bear Stearns' assets with the promise to cover any losses derived from them, JP Morgan was able to continue managing the silver short position and orchestrate a manipulative take down in 2008 from $21 per ounce down to $8 per ounce.


Only ten times more silver has been produced in world history than gold and
from the years 1000 to 1873, a period of 873 years, the gold/silver ratio
remained between 10 and 16. In fact, the Coinage Act of 1834 defined a
gold/silver ratio of 16. The gold/silver ratio started to rise after silver was
demonetized in 1873. Despite silver being demonetized, we saw the gold/silver ratio return to 16 on three occasions during the past century: in 1919, 1968, and 1980 It was only ten months ago in June of 2010 that the gold/silver ratio was 70.


With the gold/silver ratio now at 35, it means that silver investors have seen their purchasing power double over the past ten months, while those with their savings in U.S. dollars have seen their purchasing power decline by 20%. That's right, forget about NIA's silver call option that gained over 1,000% and forget about NIA's most recent silver stock suggestion that is currently up 175%; the simple act of following NIA's most basic suggestion of getting rid of your U.S. dollars and buying physical silver means that over the past ten months, your purchasing power has doubled while non-NIA members with U.S. dollars lost 1/5 of their real wealth.

The Federal Reserve can claim all they want that there is no inflation, but
as we write this article we are eating Ben & Jerry's ice cream that we just
bought at Quick Chek for $5 a pint. Three years ago, the same pint of Ben &
Jerry's ice cream at Quick Chek cost us $3. Three years ago, one ounce of gold
would have bought 295 pints of Ben & Jerry's ice cream and it still buys 295
pints of Ben & Jerry's ice cream today. Three years ago, one ounce of silver
would have bought 5.7 pints of Ben & Jerry's ice cream and today it buys 8.5 pints of Ben & Jerry's ice cream.

Americans with their savings in U.S. dollars can today only afford 3/5ths of
the ice cream that they could have bought three years ago, but those with their savings in gold have maintained their purchasing power, and those with their savings in silver have greatly increased their purchasing power. NIA is 100% sure that the gold/silver ratio will decline to at least 16 within the next few years, and that will mean those with silver will once again more than double their purchasing power. Considering that the gold/silver ratio overshot to the upside and was as high as 100 in 1991, we fully expect it to overcorrect to the downside and possibly reach a low of 10 this decade.
That would mean a more than tripling of ones purchasing power from the current ratio of 35.

When silver rose to $49.45 per ounce in 1980, the government said that the
rise was due to the Hunt brothers "cornering" the silver market. The truth is, silver reached $49.45 in 1980 due to the massive inflation that was created by the U.S. government during the 1970s, and the Hunt brothers were used as a scapegoat.

The Hunt brothers were accumulating silver in order to protect themselves from a collapsing U.S. dollar, just like NIA has been encouraging its members to do in a countless number of articles and videos over the past two years.

When the Hunt brothers were accused by the U.S. government of "cornering" the silver market and trying to manipulate silver prices higher, they only owned a concentrated long position of approximately 100 million ounces of silver.
JP Morgan today has a concentrated naked short position in silver of approximately 122.5 million ounces, but the U.S. government doesn't seem to have any problem with it.


The problem with the Hunt brothers' strategy of accumulating such a large
concentrated long position in silver is that after silver prices rose, their
position was simply too large for them to ever sell without causing silver
prices to crash. With silver reaching $49.45 per ounce in early 1980, the world was about to lose confidence in the U.S. dollar, which would have caused an outbreak of hyperinflation.

In a desperate attempt to save the U.S. dollar and prevent hyperinflation, the CBOT raised margin requirements and limited traders' positions to only 3 million ounces of silver futures. The COMEX also limited traders' positions to 10 million ounces of silver futures. Not only that, but the COMEX and CBOT only had a total of 120 million ounces of silver in inventory, and the COMEX was likely going to default from futures contract holders requesting physical delivery. The COMEX was forced to go into "liquidation only" mode, ending all silver futures contract buying.

Combined with the Federal Reserve rapidly rising interest rates, silver
prices began to plunge and the Hunt brothers were hit with massive margin calls.
On one single day in March of 1980 when the Hunt brothers were forced to
liquidate a large part of their position, silver lost 1/3 of its value,
declining by over $5 to $10.80 per ounce. That represented a total decline of 78% from its high two months earlier.

NIA has been receiving a countless number of emails asking if now is the time to sell silver, and if silver could crash by 78% once again like it did in 1980.

The fact is, while the Hunt brothers' 100 million ounce concentrated silver
position was on the long side, JP Morgan's 122.5 million ounce concentrated
silver position is on the short side.

While the Hunt brothers' long position was impossible to sell without causing silver prices to crash, JP Morgan's naked short position is impossible to cover without causing silver prices to explode to the upside.

Being that the CFTC was so quick in 1980 to support the position limits that were then imposed by the CBOT and COMEX, NIA believes it would only be fair for the CFTC to mandate similar position limits today. This is unlikely to occur because the U.S. government believes JP Morgan's silver manipulation to be a good thing, since it is giving the phony appearance that the U.S. dollar still has purchasing power.

The free market will ultimately win in the end and silver prices will soar through the roof to where they belong based on supply and demand fundamentals.
It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible,
as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please
tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us



Silver is king, Go Gold !
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Dernière édition par g.sandro le Mer 14 Nov 2012 - 8:55, édité 2 fois

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MessageResolving Debt Issues – Positive For Gold, Better For Silver
par g.sandro Mer 14 Nov 2012 - 8:53

Resolving Debt Issues – Positive For Gold, Better For Silver
commoditytrademantra.com
NOVEMBER 09, 2012
Source: http://goldsilver.com/

NB: affraid yeuxx en bille Si même HSBC le dit...alors.... aaarf r.ire

Citation :



Resolving Debt Issues – Positive For Gold, Better For Silver:

Gold climbed despite a fall in equities, breaking away from a recent correlation with risk. All dips in Gold and Silver henceforth should be bought pretty quickly given the Global fiscal challenges that lie in wait. Resolving any debt issues with more debt or simply delaying them to a further date will remain highly positive for Gold, but will be better for Silver. This has been seen & experienced over the past 4 years & hold true even now. But even this can prove right to a certain extent of time, which on any scale seems to be getting over stretched. Theory and reality don’t always agree & if they do so, it could last only for a certain stretch of time. There will soon come a time when even this equation collapses. Gold &Silver will surely rise as Global Debt levels are increased and / or postponed to a later date. Increased monetary easing will sharply spike up Inflation, which in turn is highly positive forGold And Silver or also other metals to an extent. Nonetheless we regard pullbacks in Gold as a buying opportunity for now and hold strong to our near term forecast of $1,855. Just imagine a scenario where National Debts are High, Jobless numbers are high, Inflation is also high & strain & frustration on public is high & rising. All these will lead to riots, civic unrest & crime.Gold & Silver will surely get a boost but for the price rally to sustain there needs to be a continuous money supply at higher levels – Where will that come from? Gold will get sold / liquidated at higher levels to sustain daily livelihood at the commoner levels. This will increase Supply which in turn will reduce demand, which in turn will induce a crash. That time is yet to come – but does not seem too far away. Till then, a sharp upside rally in not only Gold Prices, but Silver, Metals, Crude Oil & Agro Commodities also cannot be ruled out. For more:Economic Forecast.

Greece, US Debt & Fiscal Cliff issues gain traction:
The equity-market sell-off Wednesday will be a “wake-up” call & Congress “will have no choice but to reach an agreement, even if it means a temporary patchwork designed to kick the can down the road. Fresh Gold buying as safe-haven demand is surfacing this week amid concerns about the approaching US Fiscal Cliff and about the European Union sovereign debt crisis. The fresh safe-haven demand in the Gold Market Thursday was further evidenced by very strong demand at a US government Treasury note auction at midday. Uncertainty about U.S. fiscal policy persists after elections and could be “problematic” for risk sentiment. U.S. election results bring clarity on Monetary Policy, which means the highly accommodative policy is here to stay, but not the Fiscal Policy. Only navigating around the ‘fiscal cliff’ is unlikely to make a substantial dent in the overall level of federal deficits, meaning that the general debasement of the US Dollar will likely continue going into 2013, providing yet another prop for Gold Prices. The Euro currency fell to a fresh two-month low Thursday amid heightened concerns regarding the European Union sovereign debt crisis. The US Debt Ceiling issue has also come to the front burner of the market place this week. The Bank of England kept its key interest rates & asset purchase program unchanged, which was expected. The ECB –European Central Bank did not make any changes to its monetary policy, neither did ECB president Draghi’s press conference after the meeting provided any fresh clues on ECB policy changes, also as expected. Greece parliament did pass fresh Austerity Measures amid violent public protests in Athens as a reaction. Also Greece’s unemployment rate rose to 25.4% in August. There is fresh speculation Spain will not ask for a financial bailout from the European Union this year. The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will select a new generation of leaders over the next week. A leadership change in the key commodity-consuming nation of China will result in some type of news that would be supportive for theBase Metals pack. The start of the new government will be accompanied by convincing economic data for further growth. Further infrastructural projects are likely to be announced, which should be reflected in a robust demand for metals. China is the world’s largest consumer of Copper.

Gold has already doubled since Obama first took office:
U.S. and global economic data suggests that we are on the brink of a severe global recession and or Depression. With the re-election of Obama absolutely nothing has changed and we are likely to see Gold and Silver perform as they did in Obama’s first term – gold rose 136% and silver 223%. Much of those gains were seen in the first 2 months, November and December 2008, after Obama was elected and prior to him taking office and we may see that again given the strong seasonal factors and very strong fundamentals today. The market place Wednesday digested President Obama’s re-election, which is generally believed to be bullish for the raw commodity markets, including precious metals, due to the recent very accommodative U.S. monetary policy that is likely to continue with the second term of Obama. However, focus of the market place has quickly turned to other matters. There was a keen “risk-off” mentality that set in as the session progressed Wednesday. The US stock market saw solid selling pressure and most raw commodity markets were also pushed lower. With Democrats controlling the White House and Senate but Republicans controlling the House of Representatives, is likely to mean more stand-offs over fiscal issues such as in 2011 when gold hit its record highs. The country is starting to approach the expanded debt-ceiling limit. Without a comprehensive plan to address the country’s fiscal situation, debt-ratings agencies are unlikely to look upon the U.S. favorably in the event of another showdown over finances, with the potential for a cut in US credit rating. The underlying fundamentals are very supportive of gold going forward.

Gold to Rise – Get Ready for Cheap Money ‘Run Amok’:Rogers
Investors should prepare for price rises on more expansionary monetary policy now that President Barack Obama has won re-election, investor Jim Rogers told CNBC on news of the election. The co-founder with George Soros of the Quantum Fund said he expected Obama’s policies to drive up commodities and drive down the U.S. dollar. As the US Federal Reserve moves to ‘stimulate’ a stalled economy through debt purchases, Rogers says markets should expect the status quo to remain the same. “If Obama wins, it’s going to be more inflation, more money printing, more debt, more spending.”Rogers told CNBC, saying he expected to sell U.S. government debt and buy precious metals, such as silver and gold. “It’s not going to be good for you me or anybody else.” “It looks to me like the money printing is going to run amok now, and spending is going to run amok now,” Rogers stated. “I have to invest based on what’s happening and not what I would like.”Rogers said that he didn’t vote for either Romney or Obama, saying that “they’re both evil as far as I’m concerned.”

It’s not about national politics, it’s about policies. Until our president enacts policies that’ll alter our economic climate for the much better, Rogers and other clever investors are doing their suitable to invest in priceless metals and other safe-asserts – including Russia, according toRogers- while markets “anticipate the status to remain the exact same.” Silver and gold have actually already seen a considerable surge given that Obama won, but it’s hard to say whether that would have been any type of different if Romney had actually won the race. National politics aside,Rogers fears for our individuals and he’s especially stressed over the capacity for higher taxes. He states that has actually never ever been good for the economic climate, but he anticipates it will occur nevertheless. Rogers claims that Europe will absolutely break down following the German political election next year and also the euro is extremely unlikely to survive. That is when he says we “must all be extremely, really stressed.” The United States of America should be specifically concerned since we have not correctly recovered from 2008-2009. Each time we face a financial stagnation, the scenario worsens than the prior stagnation because our economic debt skyrockets whenever. With $ 16 trillion in debt and counting, it will not be a rather image come 2013 and 2014. Skyrocketing meals costs, failing fiat currencies, violent strikes as well as riots will all give rise to the coming worldwide situation of 2013.

India Gold Demand:
India’s Diwali festival, a key time for gold buying, is now less than a week away. “Over the past week, there have been some evidence of a stronger physical appetite in light of this, but consistency in volumes is very much lacking,” says UBS. “This is not necessarily unexpected, with previous years’ flows indicating that demand starts to waver closer to Diwali although it is typically not until the festival itself that a significant decline in demand is observed. Looking at purchases one week before Diwali last year versus current buying reveals a 24% y/y (year-on-year) decline, while year-to-date India Gold Demand is down by about 27%, based on our physical flows to the region.” However, the fourth quarter is expected to be stronger sequentially and at least as strong year-on-year, UBS says. “So far, according to our flows quarter-to-date, performance is already higher by 5% compared with the first two months of Q3 and compared with the same period in Q4 2011,” the bank says. “We expect the seasonal trend to continue playing out for the remainder of the year. Based on historical patterns, the few weeks following Diwali will likely see weak demand, before off take picks up again in mid-December through to the New Year.” Perhaps the main risk to Indian demand would be further weakness in the rupee, which makes Gold more expensive for Indians.

Gold will remain mildly Bullish any which ways:
With U.S. elections out of the way, one of the next big focuses for the gold market will be how the president and Congress deal with the so-called U.S. fiscal cliff, and “this seems likely to be supportive of bullion prices,” says HSBC. The fiscal cliff is the combination of automaticspending Cuts and higher taxes scheduled to kick in at the start of 2013 if there is no action by lawmakers. HSBC points out that gold hit its record high around the time of a debt-extension standoff in summer of 2011. The bank lists three scenarios for the fiscal cliff and the likely impact on gold. One is “automatic austerity” where there is no compromise and spending cuts and tax increases occur. This would increase uncertainty in financial markets and pressure the dollar, hence supporting gold, HSBC says. A postponement of tax increases and spending cuts would mean government debt keeps rising, also dollar bearish but positive for “real assets,” including gold. “This scenario could also trigger reflation, which would we believe would be additionally supportive of gold,” HSBC says. The third scenario would be a “middle road” of some fiscal austerity and debt reduction, which poses the least threat to the dollar. “Therefore, in our opinion, it also is the least gold-bullish,” HSBC says
.



Silver is king, Go Gold !
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