Stocks d'or des banques centrales et nouvelles normes comptables du FMI: le rapport Blanchard est bien explosif
Marie avait posté à ce sujet, mais je ne retrouve pas la file, je vous mets ça en forum privé pour le week end, on le basculera en public ensuite, n'hésitez pas à commenter please:
1. IMF Has Not Adopted Accounting Changes to Gold Loans
By Jon A. Nones
25 Jan 2007 at 04:06 PM EST
St. LOUIS (Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.) -- Earlier this week Blanchard & Co., a New Orleans-based bullion and coin dealer, released a press statement saying the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adopted a number of accounting changes to the lending of gold reserves by central banks, and will begin implementing those changes in the coming year. IMF told Resource Investor today otherwisehttp://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=28416
2. UBS reported the following from London this morning:
No changes yet to central bank gold accounting IMF
The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it has still not decided on new accounting guidelines for central bank gold loans, denying a claim that it had already made up its mind on this issue. " At this time, the IMF has not adopted any new accounting changes for the recording of gold loans," the international lender said in a statement. It said a review on the topic was under way and would lead to the publication of a new draft balance of payments manual within the next two months. The IMF said it made the statement in response to media inquiries about a Jan. 22 press release from Blanchard and Company, a New Orleans-based dealer
in rare coins and precious metals, which claimed the IMF had already made the changes. Central banks are the world's largest holders of gold. A number of them agreed in 1999 to limit sales to prop up the precious metal's price after it fell under $300 an ounce.
Under the latest agreement, 15 European central banks agreed to cap total sales at 2,500 tonnes between 2004 and 2009, compared with 2,000 tonnes in the previous five years. However, there is a substantial and largely unreported gold lending market in which central banks are major players, loaning their bullion for a fee to generate income. As a result, accounting guideline changes encouraging central banks to shed more light on lending activities would represent a major improvement in transparency, Blanchard said. Gold loans are currently included in central bank reserves. The IMF said the review was taking place as part of an update to its balance of payments manual, which provides a comprehensive theoretical guide for IMF members.
To aid transparency, the IMF also published a number of papers that have been generated by the process, including work by its Reserve Assets Technical Exports Group that indicated a number of amendments are being discussed. One outcome paper dated July 2006 noted that experts had agreed loaned gold that was available on demand to a central bank could be included in reserve assets, but should be removed if it was not available upon demand. A subsequent paper issued in September discussed excluding gold swaps from reserves and counting them, under certain conditions, as reserve-related liabilities. A separate, unrelated review by a committee including European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is examining longterm financing options for the IMF. Some European members have suggested revaluing the IMF's own gold reserves to boost income, but the United States has said it does not favour this option. The committee is expected to present its report within the next few months (Reuters).
3. The Gartman Letter this morning:
Further concerning gold, the "conspiratorialists" among us are having a field day with the news that the International Monetary Fund has adopted what some are calling a "landmark accounting change" concerning the manner in which Central Banks account for their gold loans. The IMF now says that the Central Banks cannot include the amount of gold they have lent out and sold into the market as a portion of their reserve assets. GATA now feels vindicated, and to some degree it has been; however, we suspect that the "conspiratorialists" among us thought that this announcement would send gold soaring; instead, gold faltered. That we found rather interesting indeed.
Points to be made on the above commentaries:
1. It is no surprise to GATA that the IMF would go into some sort of damage control over this matter. It is about the GOLD ATOMIC BOMB. Chris Powell said as much when the initial IMF gold accounting change proposal was first discovered last year by Blanchard and company, having been written by IMF staffers.
2. The IMF is a large organization. Most of those in that organization have no clue what is really going on. They don’t understand the motive behind including gold loans as part of reserves. Only those at the very top appreciate the real story. It is very likely that those in the know are now getting wind of the changes in the works, and have raised some objections.
3. Blanchard (a savvy Neal Ryan did the work) WAS TOLD the reserve asset committee had already made the decision to separate gold loans from gold reserves, but the implementation of these changes WOULD TAKE AS LONG AS A YEAR. Why it would take a year to say is what is beyond me, but that is the supposed deal.
Blanchard was informed by committee members that the issue has been decided, the debate they are undertaking now is how to implement those changes, not if the changes are accepted.
4. Regardless of what was decided, or the outcome, you would think the dopey gold world would be jumping up and down for joy and urging the IMF on to set the record straight. All we are talking about here is the truth. What is wrong about knowing the truth about the true status of central bank gold holdings? The World Gold Council ought to be all over this. Yep, we know … that would be too much to ask of those lightweights.
5. As far as what Dennis G said about gold running up, I said once the facts were known the price of gold would double … and I stand by that. The key is the investment world understanding the central banks really only have half the gold they say they have. He said, she said stuff about the changes of the rules is NOT the central banks reporting the real deal.
6. The reasoning for the "price doubling call" is quite simple. The revelations would:
*Show gold demand over the past decade has been FAR higher than reported.
*The lack of true central bank gold reserves would make what is left in the central banks that much more valuable … half the gold held, double the value of what is actually in the vaults.
*It wouldn’t take that much money to BUY UP what is left.
*Investors would realize that the central banks DO NOT have enough gold left to manipulate the price to any significant degree. Indeed, the revelation would likely spur other central banks to BUY. As far as the ones who still have it, why would they want to sell? The yearly supply/demand deficit is 1,000 to 1,500 tonnes, which has been met over the years by the central banks surreptitiously feeding loaned gold into the marketplace via bullion banks, like Goldman Sachs. Once that source evaporates, the price MUST explode to bring the market into supply/demand equilibrium.
*There is NO WAY the central banks can get their lent gold back without driving the price bonkers, not with a market which is in a severe deficit.
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