je crois que c'est le moment où jamais, de saisir la "big picture"
ceux qui ne connaissent pas encore les cots, iront lire la file d'explications, à ce sujet, ici
point COT GOLD de tres long terme de Nick LAIRD ( sharelynx)
graphs de TRES long terme ( de 1989 à au 31-12-2007 )
vous remarquerez que les intervenants n'ont pas fait "tourner" leurs positions depuis 2001 ( c'est d'ailleurs UNE des caractéristiques de ce marché )...
graph 1 :
courbe du gold
open interest ( rouge ) et volumes ( bleu )graph 2
brut short position des Commerciaux ( en rouge)
courbe du spot (en bleu)
net short position (en bleu) des commerciaux
net long positions ( en rouge) des larges spécs
open interest en vert
__________________________Australia's Nick Laird:
This is starting to look interesting - if the price runs here then you might as well say the shorts are DOA....^0-0^....
The first chart shows the Open Interest & Volumes for Gold Futures.
As you can see on this latest rise open interest has ballooned out to 570,000
At 100oz per position this is well over 50 million ounces controlled & at $850 an ounce works out to almost 50 billion dollars of notional value.
The second chart shows the COTs Commercial's short position which is current at the most extreme ever with 354,000 open short positions.
[See the attached file]
The third chart shows the COTs Net Positions for Commercials & Non-Commercials showing both at extremes.
This chart covers twenty years and as you can see the Commercials have never been shorter & the Non-Commercials have never been longer.
Now if the Gold price was to rise another say $100 then as traders you would have to imaging that you'd consider you're short positions were wrong & SAR (Sell & Reverse).
Then consider Richard Russell's latest missive and let your imagination run wild.
Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): A mighty interesting move coming up for gold
"Now that gold is at all-time highs, is there any way to tell where gold might be going? I’m going to repeat the words of W.D. Gann. Mr. Gann is considered by many professionals to have been one of the greatest commodity and stock traders (and thinkers) of all time. Here are Gann’s words (courtesy of my old New York friend, Ron Rosen).
"‘When a stock or a commodity advances into new territory or to prices which it has not reached for months or years, it shows that the force or driving power is working in that direction. It is the same principle as any other force which has been restrained and breaks out. Water may be held back by a dam, but if it breaks through the dam, you would know that it would continue downward until it reaches another dam, or some obstruction or resistance which would stop it.
"‘Therefore, it is very important to watch old levels of stocks and commodities. The longer the time that elapses between the breaking into new territory, the greater the move you can expect, because the accumulative energy over a long period naturally will produce larger movements than if it only accumulated during a short period of time.’
"It took 28 years for gold to break out above it’s 1980 high of 850. In view of what Gann says, this should be a mighty interesting move coming up for gold."http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2008/01/06/words-from-the