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pénurie argent métal / on y est !

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Messagepénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Ven 21 Mar 2008 - 0:55

pénurie d'argent métal



et pendant que le cours de l'argent papier se fait matraquer .. -8.94% sur cette seule journée .. , Jason Hommel rapporte que que pas moins de 19 dealers d'argent physique sont à court d'argent métal ..



et pas des petits brokers de quartier !!

Citation :
Some of these names are big names in the business, Scotia bank, the Perth Mint in Australia, CNI Numismatics in LA, APMEX says they have some items, but are looking to buy.

pour mémo et sur Scotia qui est clearing member au comex, Ted Butler suspecte que c'est par son intermédiaire que les chinois ont construit leur short position concentrée +++
le savoir en rupture de stocks d'argent métal est tout à fait relevant ...


en des circonstances où le prix de l'argent -papier est soudainement matraqué !!



n'est ce pas une coincidence pour le moins curieuse???


ceux qui cherchent àacheter de l' argent métal en physique savent d'ailleurs parfaitement la déconnection qu'il y a entre le cours de l'argent papier et celui du métal


http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/crunch.html

*********************************************

et encore !!


source www.lemetropolecafe.com

un lecteur signale qu'il ne peut se procurer des silver eagle .. quel que soit le prix, chez l'un des plus grands broker californien

au sujet des silver eagle, c'est le moment ou jamais de lire ou de relire Israel Friedman , ici , vous comprendrez surement mieux, ce qui est en train de se passer et ce qui est en jeu - sur le marché du REEL !


________

From Dave in Denver:
Tulving is sold out of silver eagles:
http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html#silver
***
March 20, 2008
Re: Silver Eagles not available

Hello Bill,
CNI (California Numismatics Investments) is one of the largest precious metals dealers in California. I was looking for the price of Silver Eagles this morning and this is what their website says. N/ A - NOT AVAILABLE. 1 oz. rounds, 10, 100, and 1,000 oz., silver bars also N/A. How does this fit with the recent price manipulation?
FREE MARKETS ANYONE? I'm afraid not. Sadly, not in our country.
Cheers,
Chris K.

Have not seen so many anecdotal stories of silver shortages in the 9+ years I have been doing this commentary. This painful silver dip should be very short lived.

Bill Murphy



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Dernière édition par marie le Dim 9 Oct 2011 - 15:26, édité 5 fois

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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Ven 21 Mar 2008 - 16:23

nouveau texte de Jason Hommel ... cette fois ci Kitco,, the us Mint et monex .. sont à court de métal et ont des pbs pour livrer clients !

http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/shortage.html



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par g.sandro Sam 22 Mar 2008 - 2:17

Tain ça ,déchire, en effet... APU Ayé...

aaarf



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MessagePénurie d'argent métal (le physique ), nous y voilà selon Hommel
par g.sandro Dim 23 Mar 2008 - 12:37

Pénurie d' Argent métal (le vrai), nous y voilà selon Jason Hommel:
ses deux derniers 2 articles en date avec les liens:

http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/low.html

Guess who is running low on Silver! affraid
(Several major coin dealers!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, March 19, 2008

People are not getting silver delivered on time by the NorthWest Territorial Mint. http://www.nwtmint.com/

If this has happened to you, I'd like to hear it so I can tell others, or you can post your complaints the goldismoney.info forum, which is tracking info on many dealers:

http://goldismoney.info/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=150

If you plan to order silver from a dealer far away, you might want to review the "PM Dealer Feedback" link, above.

NorthWest Territorial Mint is listed there, and they have a bad reputation, with 26 people giving them 1 star out of 5.

State sues Auburn gold investment company, Northwest Territorial Mint
Investors didn’t get products on time, state says
http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/276620.html

"The Attorney General’s Office, the Better Business Bureau and the Federal Trade Commission have received 82 complaints against the company, the state news release said."

Attorney General sues NW Territorial Mint
http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2008/02/04/daily21.html?jst=cn_cn_lk

Response to Attorney General Lawsuit Filed Against Northwest Territorial Mint
http://www.coinlink.com/News/press-releases/response-to-attorney-general-lawsuit-filed-against-northwest-territorial-mint/

Ross Hansen explains:

Northwest Territorial Mint locks its clients in to the current price of metal at the time of purchase or sale.

We then expect those clients who buy from us to remit payment within two business days, or, if selling, to ship within two business days.

In case of buying from us, whence this dispute arises, clients may pay with a personal check, cashier’s check, money order, or bank wire.

To protect against bad checks or counterfeit checks, it is our policy to hold these checks ten business days after receipt.

It is our policy to ship our clients’ products within 30 days of check clearance.

===================

Now, let's think about this. If a bullion company locks in a price on day 1, and the customer then sends a check within 2 business days, and it takes 2 more days for the check to arrive, and then the check is held for 10 days, that's 14 days later that the mint gets the money, to then spend on acquiring the silver in the open market for the customer.

How is that going to work in a rising market? That may have been a great business practice in a declining market, but in a rising market that could cost a lot. I don't understand how that business model could work. A quick look at the 30-day silver chart at kitco shows that silver prices moved from $17 to $21 within 15 days recently.

On a single $100,000 order, for 5882 ounces of silver at $17, will cost NWT Mint another $4/oz. more 15 days later, at an additional cost, or loss, to NWT Mint of $23,529 to fill the order.

I would be very nervous if I didn't get my silver from that dealer within 45 days, as the dealer claims they can deliver, because that dealer's business model is one I cannot understand. Standard investment wisdom is to not buy what you can't understand.

Also, if a typical dealer does $100,000 in volume in a day, over 30 days, that creates a "float" on customer money, of $3,000,000 per month. If you add in another 30 days because of excuses of "delays from others," then maybe there is a float of about $6 million.

I would strongly advise NWT Mint to change their business model, to only give out a price indication when customers call initially, and to wait until after good funds arrive to give a price lock, or after checks clear. At that point, a customer has a "valid account" and can then lock in a price. That's how I've ordered bullion from my trusted dealers when I know that I'm ordering more than I know they can handle.

NorthWest Territorial Mint is one of the largest private mints in the U.S., and makes the most beautiful coins, so I'd hate to see them go out of business. At present, you just have to wait about 60 days or more to get them, if you think nothing's wrong with that.

===================

On Today's Price dip.

People have such a short term focus; why are people asking me why silver dipped today? I live in Grass Valley, CA, a small town of 30,000 people. I have no idea why the price dipped today. More sellers than buyers, I guess, or maybe there was a manipulation on the futures market, thank God, that allows us to buy silver cheaper. Maybe I ought to send the CFTC regulators a bottle of wine and a fruitbasket with a thank you letter for neglecting their duties, as well as a warning that when it blows up in their face, that I hope they won't lose their heads like the officials did in the French Revolution. Anyway, the CFTC releases information every Friday so you can check what happened last week, up to Tuesday.

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm

Other rumors: I've heard that 4 major coin shops on the West Coast of North America were out of 100 oz. bars yesterday; Amark, the largest distributor for Johnson Matthey in the nation, and Tulving, and two dealers in Vancouver. If you include NWT Mint's delivery delays, that's 5. Anoter man emails to tells me that a coin shop in Surrecy, BC is sold out of 1 oz. Silver Coins, and that their phones are ringing off the wall for orders and they can't fill orders for lack of silver.

So, I emailed a trusted dealer I know on the East Coast, and he said he could get Johnson Matthey bars from the refinery within a week or two; it takes that long to produce them. I've ordered from him before, he's good.

http://www.wexfordcoin.com/BullionBar.htm

It was rather shocking, therefore, to see the silver price go down so much today. Therefore, I suspect this dip will be very short.

I want to reassure all those who bought silver recently at $21/oz. I first bought silver at $5.50 in 1999. I had to wait 4 years until 2003, to see silver lose 25% to $4.15/oz. Looking back, it's hardly anything to complain about, is it? So, too, will this current dip, be long forgotten once silver is at $200/oz. or higher.

Again, the fundamentals: .007% of investors are buying silver in 2006, which is $1 billion. By the time 0.1% of money in the banks tries to buy silver within 1 year, the price of silver will be well over $200/oz., in my estimation.

Here's my projection from 2005 of what will happen to silver prices if they rise 50% per year for 15 years. (You can't even see silver's rise to $50/oz. on the chart!)

la suite ci-dessous, ça se précise...



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par g.sandro Dim 23 Mar 2008 - 12:37

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/crunch.html

Silver Shortage: 19 dealers reported "Sold Out"
(SOLD OUT!!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, March 19, 2008
You know me, I don't send out two emails in one day, so this must be important. Since my email earlier tonight, where I reported that 5-6 major silver dealers (Amark, Tulving, 2 in Vancouver, my local dealer, NWT Mint) are "out of inventory", 13 more reports came in, saying that the dealers were out of silver inventory. Some of these names are big names in the business, Scotia bank, the Perth Mint in Australia, CNI Numismatics in LA, APMEX says they have some items, but are looking to buy.

If there are any coin dealers or bullion shops that have an inventory, in stock, of more than 100, 100 oz. bars, let me know, and I'll give you FREE Advertising within 24 hours in my next newsletter.

Robert Mish reports that he has 100 x 100 oz. bars still, but he had 250 bars last week.
Mish International
Menlo Park
650-324-9110

Now think: How can the silver price drop by nearly $2/oz., when all these reports come in saying that the dealers are sold out, or nearly out, of physical silver? This is the clearest evidence of paper short selling manipulation that I've ever seen since I started watching the silver market back in 1999, and I've seen a lot of evidence!

Unfortunately, the COT reports only report through Tuesday. This Wednesday's action will not be revealed in the COT's until next Friday.

The public switched and turned buyers after gold hit $1000/oz. The coin shops normally sell to the refineries, and this creates a large part of the ~250 million oz. of silver recycling each year that meets the deficit between ~650 million oz. mine supply, and ~1000 million oz. demanded by inventory.

But now, this flow of silver just reversed. And if the refineries are not getting silver from the coin shops, industry will get squeezed, hard, and so will the major short sellers on the COMEX.

This is crunch time. Panic time.

The unedited reports follow (Names removed for privacy.)

===============

Coin shop report from St. Louis, MO. I shop at Missouri Coin and have purchased bulk 10oz bars (20 at a time) on several occasions. I went shopping yesterday and they only had 9 10oz bars available and the owner commented that he cannot find more anywhere. He was out of 10oz bars when I left...

I ended up picking up a bag of quarters as well since they didn't have the bar stock I was looking for.

A crunch is on.

J in St. Louis
=============

From: Ainslie Bullion Coy [mailto:info@ainsliebullion.com.au]
Sent: Thursday, 20 March 2008 10:53 AM
To: 'Linda Wagner'
Subject: RE: price

Sorry, I can’t quote silver until the middle of next month.

The supplier won’t quote until then

Kind regards

Geoff


Ainslie Bullion Company
GPO Box 1870
Brisbane Qld 4001
Tel: +61 7 3221 0500
Fax: +61 7 3229 1895

=============

Jason,

My coin dealer is in Bakersfield CA. Mike's Coin and Stamp. My wife and I went in on monday and bought 4 100 oz. bars. Said he had a good supply of those. I also wanted some smaller bars and I wiped him out. Only 160 oz total. He says he can't keep them in stock very long before someone comes in and empties his supply. He's having a hard time getting replacements. He's the largest dealer in the area and very trustworthy. We also bought gold. At least some people seem to be taking serious what's going on.



H

=============

HI Jason:

CNI near the L.A. airport at www.golddealer.com is the dealer I have used....They were out of silver today also...

E

(CNI is a major dealer --Jason)

=============

Jason,

Just placed another order with Perth Mint, they are out of stock on everything, however there waiting period is no longer 6 months (Im guessing they received alot of complaints) its now 6-8 weeks.

Just got off the phone with them, they have no bullion in stock, its all on backorder, the official excuse is that it takes along time to make the bars and everyone wants them, could be viiewed as a good thing knowing demand is high, but I personaly dont like waiting 6-8 weeks for delivery.

I contacted several other dealers in Sydney, only 1 out of 5 has stock...... Everyone has back orders with PM which is the distributor.

Regards,
S

=============
APMEX reports, at apmex.com

Due to the OVERWHELMING demand for precious metals, our online ordering system has been unable to keep up with our customers’ needs. We have had to disable the APMEX ordering system to allow us ample time to upgrade our site to accommodate the increased demand. We apologize for this temporary problem.
. . .

P.S. We are actively looking for new bullion inventory to purchase. If you have items that total $2,500 or more and are interested in selling, please call our trading offices at the number listed above. We are paying strong numbers for ALL Precious Metals!

=============

I want to tell you that your site is very helpfull and,i believe what you are doing,nice job in telling people about GOD money.I am a very smol investor, and i have in my posesion until now around 2000 ounces of silver bars,10 ounces and 50 ounces bars.Tuesday the 18. at scotia bank they did not have enouf silver.I wanted to buy but the vault was empty,they had only coins.And today is 19...19..This evil people work with numbers.They have dates for everything.19 is an important number for the ocult.All the best.GOD bless you and your family.

=============

Hello,
This past Monday I wired funds to purchase eleven 1,000 oz bullion bars from my dealer who I have purchased & sold sizable silver orders several times before. He called Monday afternoon and stated that none of his suppliers had any 1,000 ounce bars available, but not to worry, the next day they would probably have eleven bars to fill my order.

Tuesday, he called again, stating still none had bullion except one person had some, but he would only sell them at a ten cent premium over the dealer stated price or $1,100 more. I am a long term holder so I bought them just to have the silver in my depository possession.

By the way, my dealer is a high quality company and individual and he also stated he was flat covered over all day with transactions with people like myself buying silver. I also wonder with this condition, why the silver went down, and can't help to think about Ted Butlers assertion.

Cheers
FH

=============

Ordered 100 oz. from them early Jan. due to deliver this Friday. Way too long. My dealer in Arlington Texas is almost out of silver. Probably only has about 1000 oz. left. I will be taking some of that off his hands tomorrow.
Love your reports!
Have a great day
B

=============

mEDFORD ORE WAS OUT HAD A LINE WANTING TO PURCHASE

=============

Mr. Hommel,

I live in a small town of 16,000 In S. Illinois. I stopped by my local coin shop to pick up some Silver Eagles, and the cases were empty, except for numismatic value coins. He stated he had sold over 600+ Eagles in the last week and was waiting to receive more. I thought that to be a good indicator for the future direction of Silver. I also want to tip my hat to James Rawles for pointing me in your direction. Your e-mails are part of my recommended reading to my friends.

Thank you, RG


"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Benjamin Franklin

=============

Jason,
I called the most consistent coin dealer in Memphis Monday. I like junk silver.
I could not buy a bag at any price. I was offered 5 100 once bars, period.
He stated that he hates ordering bags as the cost leaves him with indigestion.
Usually he is buying junk on a regular basis. At this time there seems to be
NO SELLERS.
Your old homie now in the Ozarks,
goatman

=============

Locally the dealers I've done business with are always in chronic tight supply and several of them recently couldn't fill a tiny $1,000 deal, let alone what I wanted to buy. I have bought hundreds of times but never more than 7461 ounces at a time. Got it from Bill Haynes in Phoenix. I was buying 90% when it was at 3.24x face and know it's still badly undervalued. I almost felt bad when a lady came in with bags of Franklins and she heard me tell the dealer I wanted them, her heart sunk, but it wasn't me that made her sell the gem BU coins. That's how quick the turnaround is. When investors go on waiting lists for hard metal, I believe it will cause the mining shares to finally zoom. We have several stupid billionaires in Dallas-Fort Worth and I wish they'd try to take a big position---it would benefit me!

--CS

=============

Again, to get silver, make sure you go local, take cash, and get the actual bars, if they have any! At this point, it matters little which product, just get any silver that they have that is somewhat close to the spot price, rounds, bars, odd weight bars, anything.

http://find-your-local-coin-shop.com/

It was for the inevitable time like this that I diligently complied the names of people in the industry who have 100,000 oz. of silver. I have 5 names on my list, but one of those 5, CNI, is now reported to be out. I don't know about the other 4; I've heard no reports about them. See the list of large dealers at http://find-your-local-coin-shop.com/

Sincerely,

Jason Hommel
www.silverstockreport.com
www.miningpedia.com



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Lun 24 Mar 2008 - 23:35

très important article de Ted Butler, ce jour ...:dernière opportunité pour monter à bord du train et acheter Argent métal..

en effet nous avons de nombreuses infos ( voir la file ) de pénurie importante d'argent métal physique ..
ce qui explique que les ( ou le ) gros shorteur ait été obligé de provoquer un violent sell off, afin de couvrir le max de ses shorts en urgence ..
c'est ce que Ted Butler prévoyait depuis longtemps .. le signal qu'il attendait en quelque sorte et nous serons fixé avec les données du prochain Cot à paraitre vendredi prochain ..

un autre point capital à enregistrer :
c'est que ce mouvement violent a éliminé tout les spéculateurs en levier .. et essentiellement les techs funds ... ce qui ne laisse , de toute façon, plus guère de marge à une baisse plus prononcée

time to load in !



http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1206378069.php

ou traduction (partielle ) en excellent français , ici



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Mar 25 Mar 2008 - 23:14

excellent papier de Jason Hommel expliquant la structure du marché de l'argent métal : pénuries et causes
eh oui, les études de survey annuels n'indiquent que les flux nets .. et notamment ceux de la Demande investissement ..
hors il semble bel et bien qu'on ait eu un pic énorme de demande que les vendeurs de piéces argent n'ont pu suivre .. faute de stocks suffisants.. le public ayant bien plus acheté que vendu ( à ces mêmes détaillants, donc c'est la source principale d'approvisionnement )

en fait il s'agit d'une pénurie d'Argent métal, sous sa forme INVESTISSEMENT ..( piéces et lingots argent)


http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/structure.html


+ autres info sur les dealers de silver via les lecteurs du midas

www.lemetropole.com


Silver news…
Bill,
I know this is old news now, but my check of precious metal retailers confirms that there is overwhelming demand for the metals and that silver is running out. Below is a paste of Silver Bullion for sale by Tulving which is one of the nations largest and lowest cost retailers. They are sold out of 8 of 10 silver products, and get this; they now have a 3000 ounce maximum purchase limit. How can the silver price drop $4 when there is a silver shortage? Is this America or Russia? Where is the free market? I would love to see Bix nail the COMEX regulators on this one. Regards,
-Bryant
G'day Bill
The shortage of silver is becoming acute in Australia. I phoned my supplier (THE major in my state) this morning, to confirm the developing situation re supply and he has confirmed that he cant get silver until May. He has always had ample stocks on hand, with my son or myself able to walk in and transact on a cash and carry basis.
NOT ANY MORE!!! He can't get a price from his supplier whom I assume is the Perth Mint or the Australian Bullion Co, as these are the bars that I have received from him. He only does Open Book orders where he will take your order but will not be able to price the metal until he is assured of a delivery price from his suppliers. Mid April is when he expects to be able to price an order. He said he has knowledge of a Perth Mint customer who has his money tied up in their Unallocated Pool Account, using Silver Certificates. Taking the advice of various "hold it in your hot little hands" advocates (such as yourself, Ted Butler and Jason Hommel etc,) he tried to redeem his certificates and have his holdings transferred into an Allocated Account.
The Perth Mint has advised him that they WILL NOT buy his certificates from him and WILL NOT allocate physical silver to him. They will however ALLOW him to swap them for gold. They will only do this by slugging him on the spreads. They slug him on their buy back price for silver and then whack him for their mark up on gold. He apparently is a man on the edge as my dealer feels that he is close to topping himself over the issue. Must be on Margin. I wonder if the Perth Mint is so broke that they can't pay him. Apparently they are backed by the full faith and credit of the Western Australian Govt. Yeah Right!
Stow it or blow it is the right call from you et al, and I thank you dearly for the advice, as I was once a Perth Mint PAPER silver certificate holder.
Kindest and warmest regards
Jon G.
From Aussie Land to Vancouver and J&M Coin & Jewellery Ltd.
I'm reading on the internet that many bullion suppliers are low or out of Ag inventory. Can you tell me if this is the situation with you guys? …

It is. We have no bars of any size though we do have silver Maple Leaf coins coming in late this week or early next. Presently we are not taking advance orders on silver.

Thanks for asking J&M.

Those looking to buy silver might want to turn to one of GATA’s staunchest supporters and good friend over many years…
Hi Bill,
Thanks for inserting my email stating that we had 10,000 oz of silver in stock and ready for sale. But you put in David Schectman and no phone number. Most of your readers will not know who I am or how to contact us. Could you please make sure that they know the silver is from one of your recommended dealers, Miles Franklin, and our phone number is 1 800-822-8080.
Thanks,
David
Bill,
I called the proprietor of my bullion dealer in Phoenix today. The company is quite large and been in business for almost 30 years. The proprietor is a hard money advocate and not a gold cartel apologist like Kitco. I asked him about the rumors of a physical silver shortage. He said that a lot of the smaller dealers had run out.
They, however, planned for this bull market and so they built quite a large inventory. When he re-stocks he can find silver but not necessarily in the products he wants to buy. He said one year ago you could find anything you wanted. He said that when the price of silver went above $10 there was a lot of supply from the general public, happy to make 100% on their investment over 5 years. But he said that has dried up now. The buyers are now long term holders. Most of the supply has to come from the refiners or the US mint and that is in short supply BUT still available.
He said it was a strange business to be in because he distributes real money to the general public and what he gets in return is a bit of colored paper! He said it is a bit like owning a bar and letting people drink on a bar tab to be settled later. Being fully clued in to the fiat money scam he obviously re-stocks as fast as possible and doesn’t hold on to the pretty paper.
He said to end the tightness in silver someone has to start producing more product. I agreed, but I said the reality is that producers will provide LESS not MORE. The producers have been mining high grade ore to survive for 20 years. Now as the price rises they will mine lower grade ore which due to much higher prices will allow them to increase revenues and profits but their tonnage output will decrease putting more upward pressure on silver prices.
The pieces seem to be falling into place. Silver is getting harder to find in quantity and the small guys already don’t have any. It is smoldering brush wood, but the news of this impending supply crisis will fan the flames into a forest fire that will multiply the demand for silver and quickly lead to supply defaults.
I would advise everyone to make sure they own allocated silver or take possession of it. For those that don’t own any the last opportunity to load the boat is rapidly slipping away. We will see a mad rush for the mining stocks by those who have missed the boat.
Cheers
Adrian



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MessageHommel le 25/03/08 sur le sujet, doc très pédagogique avec liens ok
par g.sandro Jeu 27 Mar 2008 - 13:20

Structure du marché de l'argent : Pénuries et origines

Silver Market Structure: Shortages And Sources



(Shortages can make people crazy!)


Silver Stock Report


by Jason Hommel, March 25, 2008


My recent reports on the Silver Shortages at Coin Shops and major dealers have been popular, and widely re-posted. Misunderstandings and questions are more abundant than my ability to answer them all individually; but most could be answered if only people and coin shop owners only understood the basic market structure of silver, and did a little bit of thinking for about 5 minutes, and then a bit of math on the numbers, so let's start with the numbers, as reported by the CPM Group and Silverinstitute. New reports for 2007 are expected this Spring, and I'd be surprised to see any category change by more than 5%, except maybe investor buying, which might be up. For 2008 reports, we'll have to wait a year. I tend to average the figures from both groups, and then average again to the nearest 50 million oz. or 5%.
So, for 2006:
On the supply side, there is 900 million ounces:
About 650 million ounces of silver is mined each year, and growing slightly.
About 200 million ounces of silver is recycled each year.
About 50 million ounces of silver is sold by governments each year, and declining.
On the demand side, of the 900 million ounces:
About 45% is consumed in industry including mostly electronics, and growing slightly.
About 35% is consumed in jewelry and flatware.
About 15% is consumed in photography, and declining slightly.
About 5% is purchased by investors in the form of bars and coins, and growing slightly.
Investor buying is the hardest category to track, and is generally assumed as either "implied net investment or net divestment" to make the total numbers match on both the supply and demand side. The major change 2 years ago was a switch from "implied net divestment" to "implied net investment".
More silver than the "net" is traded between investors, during a year, perhaps another several hundred million ounces, it's hard to say. The investment numbers are simply "net" figures, that factor in that there must be more total investor buying or more total investor selling, and by how much.
The numbers are from surveys, and are rough estimates, and nobody fully agrees 100%, but the numbers from those top two surveys are very close, and I don't have enough knowledge or reason to dispute them. They make sense with what I know and see and hear in the real world, and they can explain a lot about the silver market, especially the great investment opportunity that exists.
In the entire history of the world, about 45 billion ounces of silver have been mined. Of that, nearly all of it, probably between 90-95% has been consumed, and ended up in landfills, as the silver has been changed into forms that are less economic to recover than new mining. So there might be about 5 billion ounces of silver remaining in the world that has been mined, and still exists, held by people in the form of bars & coins, jewelry & flatware, and scrap.
While known silver reserves in the ground are at about 14 years, more silver will be found and mined for the next 5000+ years or more, like always. (This proves that peak oil is bunk. All mines, like oilfields, are depleting assets, but the earth is a very big place.)
Very little silver is at the 4 NYMEX approved warehouses, only about 140 million oz.
Very little silver backs up the silver ETF, SLV, about 179 million oz.
Very little silver is purchased by investors each year, about 50 million oz.
The U.S. Mint makes about 10 million ounces of silver Eagles each year.
Silver Eagles thus represent about 1/100th of the annual silver market. The current Shortage of Silver Eagles is not technically a shortage of silver, you see. Ted Butler, who writes for Investment Rarities, suggests that their endorsement of Eagles has helped to cause a run on them, and I believe it.
I would personally estimate that about half of silver recycling, about 100 million ounces, moves through coin shops and has to be sold to larger dealers and refiners. More silver than that moves through U.S. coin shops back to the public, however, in addition to the "net" flows, but the "net" flows explain a lot.
1. It explains why most coin shops don't feel there is a shortage of silver, and don't feel the need to carry silver inventory.
2. It explains how and why coin shops can run out of silver so quickly.
3. It explains why coin shops cannot say when they will get more silver, since their source of silver is the public (they don't order much from refiners, they sell to refiners).
Let's assume that U.S. coin shops are 50% of the world market in silver. So, they buy about 50 million oz. of silver more than they can sell to the public. There are about 4000 coin shops tracked by http://coininfo.com/ which I advertise to help you find your local coin shop.
If we divide 50 million oz. of silver by the 4000 shops, that comes to 12,500 oz. per shop, on average that they have to buy, more than they can sell, in a year. Times $20/oz., that's $250,000 more silver per shop, per year, than they can sell to the public (usually, but not this week!).
Like any industry, there is a range that differs from the average, where some shops do a lot more business than others.
The market structure explains the relatively insane comments by coin shop owners that my readers tell me about, these conversations confuse my readers, and often sound like this:
Customer: I'd like to get a quote on silver.
Shop: If you are selling, the price is . . .
Customer: No, I'm buying, because there's a shortage.
Shop: There's a shortage of silver? But there's plenty of silver.
Customer: How many 100 oz. bars do you have?
Shop: We are sold out right now, but if you come back later, I'd be happy to sell you some silver.
Customer: Eagles?
Shop: Sold out.
Customer: Any silver at all?
Shop: Not right now, gotta go, phone is ringing. "Hello, are you selling silver? No?"
Coin shops would love for you to come back later, because they can sell silver to you at about 5% over the spot price, but refiners and other dealers will only give them about 1% under spot, at best.
Here's another estimated calculation to determine how much silver buying is needed to "clean out" the coin shops in a week: 50 million oz. of silver / 52 weeks x $20/oz.
= $19.2 million in a week.
This is what we saw these last few days. The public bought about $19 million more worth of silver than they usually buy, and cleaned out most coin shops around North America, and the world.
See how tiny the silver market is? That's why it's such a great investment. There's way too much paper money, and so little silver available!
At the same time, the rumors I've heard are that the large banks that are bankrupt and getting help from the Fed, were told to sell some of their gold and silver, because it makes little sense for them to be getting loans while carrying so much of those "useless barbaric relics" on the books.
But investment bank silver is not typically in the same form as silver demanded by the public, and it is not sold to coin shops, but at the NYMEX, or maybe sold to refineries and mints who might be taking delivery of contracts to make 100 oz. bars or 1 oz. coin blanks.
===================
It appears to me that Northwest Territorial Mint is bankrupt. Based on Ross Hansen's letter to me last week, a reader did some calculations based on the admissions in that letter. Ross sells 20,000 oz. of silver per day. And Ross has 300,000 oz. of silver "in the pipeline", and deliveries are about 60 days, at best. There are about 43 business days in 60 days. (5/7). 43 days worth of silver, for Ross, at 20,000 oz./day, should be about 860,000 ounces, creating a deficit of about 560,000 ounces of silver that they are short, and have taken orders for, and have not yet bought that silver in this rising market from $13 to $20/oz.
I received 20 more compaints about the Northwest Territorial Mint since Friday, some readers waited 5 months to get silver, others have orderd silver in November 2007, and have not received it yet.
On Friday, one man reported to me that he walked in to the Northwest Territorial Mint and tried to get 100 oz. bars, and could only get 6 bars.
Here's an interesting story about a mint that went bankrupt in 1980.
http://bulk.resource.org/courts.gov/c/F2/634/634.F2d.1285.79-1555.79-1554.79-1553.html
"the corporation was selling silver and other products which it did not have in its inventory and did not have sufficient cash to obtain. The period of delay in delivery increased as replacements were not full and complete in terms of maintaining an inventory which allowed prompt delivery after the sale. First there was a seven or eight week delay in delivery of orders to retail customers and a shortage of about 80,000 ounces of silver which became apparent in December 1973 and early January 1974.
===================
I've continued to get reports from my readers that coin shops are out of silver; 19 reports of shortages since last Friday, here's a few more specific ones, from people who really canvased the areas to discover shortages:
International: China, Dubai, Sydney, Vancouver,
Domestic: Houston, Chicago, Seattle, San Diego.
-----
I can confirm from my recent email exchanges with the Bank of China (BOC) that BOC has now ceased selling physical products of silver but undertakes to buy the same from her customers. No explanation was given.
-----
I just became aware of this silver bullion shortage through your site, and phoned up my regular silver bullion dealer in Dubai. I have bought from them many times in the past, and can ALWAYS buy as many 1Kg Emirates Gold "silver" bars as I like. So it has been heaven for me to have unlimited bars to buy...
However when I phoned just now, they DO NOT have any in stock, and they cannot say when they will!
-----
From a dealer in Sydney, "Yes, silver is pretty scarce here too. I went around to five dealers and I could only get one bar out of them. Gold, however, appears to be more available."
-----
I can confirm that several coin dealers in the Houston area are sold out. They said things like, "I'm flat sold out. I can't buy any from my suppliers. I won't be getting any in for a while."
-----
I called my brother who lives in the Chicago area to canvass his local coin dealers that he knows to see whats up with inventory of silver and he reports back they are all out of stock...
-----
Dealers hear in the Seattle,Wa area are out of silver, I did manage to get about 56 oz of silver from Northgate coins, but that was 3 days ago. Called around today and everyone is out. I called around in San Diego (where my father lives) and everyone is out there also.
===================



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Sam 29 Mar 2008 - 1:04

www.lemetropolecafe.com

Bill;
This very good friend of mine went to his bullion dealer [one of Canada’s largest] yesterday to pick up a substantial order of physical silver he had ordered one week ago. To fill the order – which was for coins / junk - the dealer had to rummage through is substantial inventory and dip into a wide variety of product including many pieces that typically carry a substantial numismatic [collectable] premium.
The order was only filled because my friend is a very good customer.
The commentary from the dealer was to the effect that, "something definitely and categorically changed in the physical silver market with last week’s bombing [he called it a price drop] of the price on COMEX". I should make mention that this guy IS NOT conspiracy minded in any way – yet he went on at some length and was perplexed to the point of possibly being confused about how demand for physical went "off the charts" on the most recent price drop.
He reiterated anecdotal comments already stated at the café that BNS [one of this usual sources] has no silver and physical is becoming rarer than hen’s teeth - but he did have one 1,000 oz J&M bar – it was still warm – he had just picked it up at the refinery yesterday afternoon, he said it was smelted the day before.
So even as the Hill Billies order their minions to smash the COMEX price – the realities of shortages in the physical market are mandating a decoupling in price of physical from paper right before our eyes – just as you and GATA have maintained should happen for years "to a Tee". I remember you telling me this 3 years ago and at that time you even told me, "we should see this situation develop in silver first – then gold".
Good call.
Best,
Rob Kirby
More on silver…
Bill,
Just looked at the Bullion Direct auction web site. They have posted an alert on the silver pages warning of delays due to a "substantial surge in activity". Also their "ask" quantities have dried up at anywhere near the spot prices and the "bids" have increased dramatically. Yikes! Looks like Bix is on the case at just the right time.
Michael Anderson
Tiger Pacific



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Mer 2 Avr 2008 - 2:00

un développement capital de Butler sur ce théme

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1207068209.php

où l'on apprend aussi plein de trucs ahurissants ...

résumé vite fait ...

le violent sell off que nous connaissons ( combiné à une pénurie REELLE de l'argent métal sous certaines de ses formes monétaires ) est bien la signature d'un marché manipulé qui ne suit tout simplement pas la loi de l'Offre et de la Demande

si la pénurie ( réelle ) de piéces d'argent ( d' investissement ) qui a considérablement diminué l'éventail des disponibilités au détail, s'étend à des formes d'argent métal, utilisées par les gros investisseurs, voir les utilisateurs industriels, ça va faire des dégats ... un point que ne devraient pas mésestimer les régulateurs :
car une pénurie d'argent métal "industriel" c'est bien pire qu'une pénurie d'argent métal 'investissement"



mais surtout et d'une maniére générale, sur les marchés futures des matiéres 1eres où, les HF sont accusés de 1000 maux, je découvre les points suivants :

-oublions les techs funds que nous connaissons déjà, qui jouent en levier
- les fonds indiciels, sont une autre composante des Hedges Funds... ceux la ne jouent pas en levier ..font du buy and hold ... et surtout n'ont pas le droit de demander livraison du produit ..( donc une sorte d'exception dans les marchés de futures où la contrepartie d'une vente peut à terme, demander la livraison du produit ou son équivallent en $ )
une sacrée aubaine pour les naked shorts ( c'est à dire ceux qui vendent à terme- date fixe- un produit qu'ils ne détiennent pas) ...une garantie, même, si l'on peut dire !!!

-inconvénient pour les naked short : les fonds indiciels ne jouent pas en levier
donc ces salopiaux restent assis sur leurs positions, buy and hold, quoiqu'il arrive ... contrairement aux techs funds qui débarquent dès qu'on le leur demande ...
nul besoin, de rajouter des positions nouvelles ( ça c'est les techs funds), le buy and hold depuis le début du boom des matières premières suffit à mettre les shorts dedans ..

so what happens???

comme les matières premières boostent +++ , les naked shorts sont mal ... même s'ils tentent une attaque .. les ventes des techs funds ne sont pas suffisantes pour leur permettre de couvrir leurs shorts ..

so??

on demande au régulateur de changer les régles, de sorte à forcer ces fonds à liquider

comment? en changeant les montants maxi détenables par une même entité .. par exemple ..

là où ça devient "drole', c'est que la short position Argent concentrée n'a jamais génée les régulateurs ..ce serait le ponpon qu'ils restreignent subitement les montants maxi détenables par une seule entité ..chez les longs?? chez les shorts aussi?? ce pourrait etre amusant?

heureusement pour nous, les fonds indiciels ne sont pas présents sur les marchés de futures Or et Argent ( régulés par la cftc) mais plutot sur les ETF Or et Argent ( ceux la étant régulés par la SEC) ...

je tenais néammoins à vous faire part de ces importants développements ..surtout lorsque l'on apprend le projet de loi pour autoriser la fed à devenir le super régulateur ( cliquez ici )..
ya tout de même de sacrés trucs en ce moment !!



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Dernière édition par marie le Dim 9 Oct 2011 - 15:34, édité 2 fois

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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par du-puel Mer 2 Avr 2008 - 10:11


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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Mer 2 Avr 2008 - 15:12

la réponse de Jason Hommel à Nadler,

extrait de http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/perth2.html

Jon Nadler today acknowledged the shortage of some silver products, in his article, "Squeeze THIS", but floats his foolish opinion that there is no shortage at all, as he writes:
"Aside from short-term, spot shortages of certain small fabricated items, there appears to be no problem. The real holdup is simply a matter of less than adequate supplies of coin blanks from which to mint one-ounce product. Call it poor planning. It has been seen before. Some mints did not figure that buyers would rush out to get their hands on small, high-premium coins at $20 per ounce silver (another sign that prices are possibly topping out). So, where is the squeeze? Only in the arteries of the brains of some very ill-informed casual market observers. Depositories are practically choking on 1,000 ounce silver bars crowding their floor space. It's amazing what tales some bored people will spin when it comes to markets they do not comprehend."
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/mar312008B.html
Jon Nadler is a blathering fool, and not even a tinfoil hat could help him tune out kitco's bearish bias and overpriced silver, and tune into reality.
The reality is that a shortage of water is called a drought. Droughts can happen on earth, even though the earth's surface is two thirds water. There can be a shortage of water for a person on a lifeboat at sea, when there is water, water everywhere, and not a drop to drink. Same with silver, because 1000 ounce bars are not what the public wants, and are as inconvenient for people as sea water.
The reality is that the Western public turned into buyers of silver when gold hit $1000/oz., and thus many investment products of silver at many places ran out; there was a shortage of the kind of silver that normal people buy, not just Maples and Eagles, but 100 oz. bars, 10 oz. bars, 1 ounce rounds, and in many places 90% junk silver was sold out too! That is called, and is, a silver shortage.
It does not mean, and I never said, that there is no silver left on earth. That silver shortage of investment coins and bars has about as much bearing on 1000 oz. bars as droughts have on the ocean. The ocean cannot be used to "disprove" a drought, any more than 1000 oz. bars can be used to disprove a shortage of silver available for investment.
Speaking of reports of abundant silver, I hear there is plenty of silver available in India, but "plenty" is a rather nebulous and relative term, and I don't know what to make of it unless there are reputable offers of silver specifying the amount, size, product, place, etc. If people in India feel they have plenty of silver and want paper money instead, then let them ship it to U.S. coin shops; there are over 4000 places of business here to choose from, and can be found here: http://find-your-local-coin-shop.com/
Let buyers of Indian silver beware; I've heard it's often smelted into 40% silver or less in various places, and it might not be standardized. The Bible gives good advice, to buy gold "refined in the fire", (Revelation 3:18) so you know the purity.
Furthermore, depositories are definitely not choking on their 1000 oz. bars! They used to have over ten times as many of them about 20 years ago; as there was about 1500 million ounces in the COMEX depositories, today they are down to about 134,000 thousand ounce bars. They have less than 1/10th what they used to have! They are not choking on 1000 oz. bars, they are running out!
So if the 1000 oz. bars are like the ocean, then the ocean is running dry, too!
We call that "short supply" of silver in monetary terms, given that the Fed can create $350 billion in a week, which is enough to buy 50 million ounces of silver at $20/oz., 350 times over, and is especially concerning to me, given that 91% of the population now thinks that inflation is a problem.
Furthermore, the silver market structure says that about 200 million ounces of silver is recycled. A good portion of that comes from investors selling silver to coin shops, which, in turn, sell to refiners, to make 1000 oz. bars. Now, given that the public stopped selling, and turned buying, and that many coin shops ran out of silver, which we call a shortage, that means there is less supply to the refiners to make 1000 oz. bars, and that there will be fewer of them, too!
Furthermore, this shortage has never been seen before in the last 7 years, not in this bull market, not like this.
Finally, for Jon Nadler to infer that I'm lying, and telling "tales" because I'm bored, just goes to show how lazy and bored he must be; utterly incapable of doing any sort of investigative research, or making phone calls, and not even capable of making a few mouse clicks on links and read web pages of coin dealers that list that they are sold out!
I quoted many sources that showed their inventory levels as "sold out", ranging from Tulving.com, to CNI numismatics, to APMEX.com, all verifiable on the web, all major dealers, and up to 19 others, as well as quoting people who scoured all the coin shops in entire major cities around the globe and could find nothing. Are all of those web sites and people lying as well? Ridiculous. Jon Nadler, you are a foolish raving lunatic who is selling hot air; you are a perfect match for kitco, who is a seller of Perth Mint certificates and "kitco pool accounts".



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Dernière édition par marie le Sam 19 Mar 2011 - 16:38, édité 1 fois

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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par du-puel Mer 2 Avr 2008 - 17:34

Mouais, il ne nie pas que la pénurie d'argent métal ne porte que sur les pièces, pas sur les barres et qu'il s'agit essentiellement d'un problème de production, pas de matière première.

Et les pièces c'est quelle part du marché de l'Argent ?

Nadler confirme la disponibilité même pour les lingotins de seulement 1oz ou 10oz

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/apr022008A.html

Quelqu'un va peut-être essayer d'en acheter pour de vrai ; on saura alors.

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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Mer 2 Avr 2008 - 19:29

hum ... puisque tu insistes avec Nadler, Dup ..je signale au cas où tu ne l'aurais pas remarqué .. qu'il a la double casquette "analyste" et Kitco Bullion Dealers Montreal "
autant dire que sur cette affaire, il est juge et partie ..

il n'en est d'ailleurs pas à son coup d'essai .. puisqu'il nie réguliérement, toutes formes de manipulation des marchés de l'or et de l'argent.
s'il en reste 1 ce sera lui ..
voir cette savoureuse file sur les forums de goldismoney, ici



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Dernière édition par marie le Ven 18 Mar 2011 - 18:54, édité 1 fois

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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par du-puel Mer 2 Avr 2008 - 20:26

He bien dans ce cas je suppose que Hommel et / ou d'autres vont le prendre au mot et passer commande à kitco, donc on verra bien s'ils le peuvent et s'ils sont livrés rapidement.

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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Sam 17 Mai 2008 - 19:36

hum ... le ton monte entre kitco et Hommel r.ire
stay tuned !

http://silverstockreport.com/2008/kitco.html



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Sam 17 Mai 2008 - 23:16

arbitrez votre gold physique contre du silver

tel est le plan de bataille lancé par un gold bug, décidé à en finir avec le cartel tchin

je ne peux qu'approuver, étant investie - de même que Sandro- et depuis fort longtemps sur un portif mét précieux quasi silver

non seulement, c'est plus rentable mais les derniers événements ont en effet montré que le talon d'achille du cartel, est bel est bien le shortage de silver physique, même s'il apparait que ce shortage existe, pour le moment, sur une certaine catégorie de "produits" uniquement.. il faut bien commencer par manquer de quelquechose ..avant de manquer de tout Wink

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1210917480.php



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par g.sandro Sam 17 Mai 2008 - 23:44

Citation :
de Marie:

il faut bien commencer par manquer de quelque chose ..avant de manquer de tout Wink
aaarf


Oui, tout à fait...
j'ai lu avec intérêt la joute entre Kitco et Hommel, affraid je suis impatient de voir ce que Kitco va faire sur ce coup là.

en tout cas, Jason ne se démonte pas:okkkey fffuck chinois chappo

ico_metal



Silver is king, Go Gold !
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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Dim 18 Mai 2008 - 19:28

Kitco / Perth Mint / AGR Matthey / Bullion Bank Connections



http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/bullionbanks.html



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Jeu 22 Mai 2008 - 15:17

lettre au gvt australien à propos de perth mint

http://silverstockreport.com/2008/WAustralia.html



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Sam 24 Mai 2008 - 0:50

Collectors angered as U.S. rations 'silver eagles'


Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2008-05-23 15:28. Section: Daily Dispatches
Losing a Mint:
Curb on Coin Sales
Angers Collectors
U.S. Begins Rationing
Popular 'Silver Eagles';
How $1 Fetches $19
By Ianthe Jeanne Dugan
The Wall Street Journal
Friday, May 23, 2008
The government rationed food during World War II and gasoline in the 1970s. Now it's imposing quotas on another precious commodity: 2008 dollar coins known as silver eagles.
The coins, each containing about an ounce of silver, have become so popular among investors seeking alternatives to stocks and real estate that the U.S. Mint can't make them fast enough. In March the mint stopped taking orders for the bullion coins. Late last month it began limiting how many coins its 13 authorized buyers worldwide are allowed to purchase.
"This came out of nowhere," says Mark Oliari, owner of Coins 'N Things Inc. in Bridgewater, Mass., one of the biggest buyers of silver eagles. With customers demanding twice as many as they did last year, Mr. Oliari would like to buy 500,000 a week. But the mint will sell him only around 100,000.
The coins have a face value of $1. But the mint sells them for the going price of silver, plus a small premium, to a handful of wholesalers, brokerage companies, precious-metals firms, coin dealers, and banks. The dealers mark the coins up a bit more and sell them to the public. Currently, the coins are fetching about $19 apiece, with some sellers seeking more than $20.
For Coins 'N Things alone, the shortage is costing hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost sales of silver eagles. The firm sells about $1 billion worth of precious metal every year, including silver, gold, and platinum coins. Mr. Oliari, a 50-year-old numismatist who has been in the business since 1973, sniffs: "You can't print what I want to say about the mint."
The mint, a bureau of the U.S. Treasury, has offered little explanation beyond a memo last month to its dealers. "The unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins necessitates our allocating these coins on a weekly basis until we are able to meet demand," the mint wrote. A spokesman declined to elaborate.
... 'Poor Man's Gold'
The rare shortage offers a glimpse into the growing love of a commodity known as "poor man's gold." With more silver mined than gold traditionally, silver has always been far cheaper than gold and today has less than 2% of gold's value.
But silver is growing in popularity, and some investors are betting that its value will surge as inventory shrinks. Big investors are loading up on silver eagles, which are the only American silver coins allowed in individual retirement plans. For small investors, they are an accessible way to get into the metal boom.
"Unlike gold, these coins can be bought by regular citizens," says J.R. Roland, a Brownsville, Tenn., judge who recently began buying the coins -- and trading them on eBay. "In these economic hard times, silver coins are a great way to invest."
In March, sales of silver eagles surged more than ninefold from the previous month, to 1.85 million. This year, the mint has sold 6.8 million, representing more than twice last year's pace. Still, numismatists are clamoring for millions more as the price of silver soars. It has more than doubled in the past three years and now trades at around $17 a troy ounce, which is slightly heavier than a traditional ounce.
Linda Wood, a 57-year-old Pittsburgh accountant, scours eBay, coin shops, and flea markets in search of silver eagles. One by one, she has accumulated about 300 in the past few months and stores them in a bank safe-deposit box.
Traditional coin collectors may be impressed with the government's written description of silver eagles as "one of the most beautiful coins ever minted." But Ms. Wood isn't in it for aesthetics. She became a silver bug after she and her husband saw the value of their individual retirement accounts decline by $2,500 -- a "significant" chunk. "I just need bullion," she says. "I wouldn't care if the coins were ugly."
Amid the mint caps, shady silver-eagle hawkers are thriving. Some coins are priced at $25 and higher. Mr. Roland says that he had to wait a month after ordering some on eBay recently, because the sellers didn't even have the goods. "I can't wait long, because you never know what's going to happen with the price," he says.
In Manitowoc, Wis., Dan Zirk, owner of Manitowoc Card & Coin, has sold twice as many silver eagles as he did last year. So he has stashed away his remaining handful of 2008 coins, betting the price will rise. "I want $22 apiece," says Mr. Zirk. He says customers, meanwhile, are asking for earlier years and other forms of silver.
... Lady Liberty
The government began producing silver eagles in 1986, basing its design on Adolph Weinman's 1916 "Walking Liberty" half dollar. The front features a flag-draped Lady Liberty striding toward the sunrise, carrying branches of laurel and oak symbolizing civil and military glory. On the reverse, a design by John Mercanti features an eagle with a shield, olive branch, and talon and arrows.
The coins are made at an armored facility in West Point, N.Y., alongside the military academy. Dealers say they heard the mint had run out of planchets -- round metal disks ready to be struck into coins. The disks are used for various coins, and the companies producing the blanks also are busy, limiting the mint's ability to increase production. The mint won't comment on the planchets.
... Coins Divvied Up
Each Monday morning now, the mint divides its silver coins into two pools. It divvies up the first equally among authorized purchasers. The second is allocated proportionately, based on the buyer's past purchases. The mint limited purchases once before -- in the late 1990s, when investors loaded up on silver, wrongly anticipating that a failure by the world's computers to adjust to the new millennium would cripple the economy.
Jim Hausman, head of the Gold Center in Springfield, Ill., one of eight companies in the U.S. authorized to buy silver eagles, estimates that the rationing will cut his expected annual sales of four million silver eagles in half.
And the result, he says, is almost un-American.
Increasingly, investors are taking a shine to alternatives. The Royal Canadian Mint saw its sales of silver Canadian maple-leaf bullion coins rise 40% last year, to 3.5 million, according to a spokesman.
Some investors expect the craze to end badly. They draw comparisons to what happened to silver in the 1970s. A rich Texas family poured billions of dollars into silver, and prices surged above $50 an ounce in 1980, only to plunge again after government intervention.
"It's akin to what happened when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market," says Wendell Curry, who owns McAllen Gold & Silver Exchange in McAllen, Texas. "The silver hawks are now trying to corner silver American eagles. And it's making it harder for mom and pop to buy these for their grandchildren."
http://www.gata.org/node/6323

__________________
sur le dossier de perth mint, la suite chez Hommel

http://silverstockreport.com/2008/perth3.html
Perth Mint Crisis: Solutions and Ramifications



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Mer 28 Mai 2008 - 21:15

Hommel revient sur la définition du shortage et précise certains points fort interessants .. sur celui du silver, bien sur !



http://silverstockreport.com/2008/silver-shortage.html



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Sam 31 Mai 2008 - 0:03

sur le dossier Kitco / Perth Mint / AGR Matthey

cette excellente réponse de Mexico Mike à un article publié sur kitco

Mexico Mike:
Hi Bill!
Imagine the outrage if it came to pass that you paid for a secure parking space for your Ferrari, and then discovered that the party you had entrusted to protect your investment had actually been out joyriding in that car, without your knowledge or permission. Would you be inclined to shrug this off as a common business practice, or accept an explanation that basically implied you were to blame for not understanding the nature of the parking business? I doubt it...
Yet I read this article by Troy Schwensen in regards to the gold pool accounts, and that is exactly what he is suggesting: http://www.kitco.com/ind/schwensen/may292008.html
It seems that according to Troy "it is not unusual to have varying degrees of leased gold on the books of a Mint. It is all part of the normal operations of the business."
Well, I would hazard to guess that for the people who have chosen the security of gold ownership, and who have paid for that security up front to own the metal, they would not be thrilled to learn that the company they have entrusted is lending their gold out at a profit and does not in fact provide the service they have promised. What value is there if you cannot be sure that your gold will be on hand for delivery to you, its rightful and fully paid owner, when you want it? Surely, if all you want is leverage to gold, there is a perfectly acceptable vehicle to gain that. It is called the futures trade. Yet you have bought gold for security of ownership, and now discover that the gold you paid for is handed over to the other parties that are involved in futures trading.
Schwensen then goes on to patronize the rest of us with his commentary: "AGR Matthey is a commercial operation and like any business it has many jobs and must prioritize in favor of its major clients. This sometimes means delays in delivering to minor clients during busy periods." - endquote
Ahem... Well I dont mean to be out of line here Troy, but as the owner of that metal, the aforementioned 'minor clients' may have other views on whom has the right to preferred delivery.
To me all of this has the stench of a Ponzi Scheme. If you have to borrow from one fully paid owner and then deliver that to another party that also claims ownership in order to make your business work, then what the hell else could we categorize that as?
Banks are one business that does commonly borrow from one client to lend to another. They also pay interest for that risk they expect their clients to bear, and occasionally they fail, despite the requirement for regular auditing and regulatory oversight. Where is the oversight for the bullion pool accounts to protect the rightful owners? And what is more ominous, how many times has the same bar of gold been pledged to other parties that also may consider themselves rightful owners? We cannot know, because the opaque reporting (or lack thereof) has made it impossible to know for sure just where the hell the bullion may be.
One inevitable consequence of playing musical chairs is that the music eventually stops and sometimes you are the one that does not find a seat. The disclosure from the majority of pool account custodians, not to mention a number of gold and silver ETFs, has been sketchy at best. I would bet a tidy sum that the vast majority of clients who entrust their bullion ownership to such vehicles are completely unaware that the metals they believe they own are being loaned out the back door.
At the end of the day, there is the simple rule that governs all transactions: let the buyer beware. I am not satisfied with the lack of clear disclosure and rigorous independent auditing of the pool accounts and ETFs. I do not trust the greed and other possible ulterior motives that may be part of the agenda of those entrusted to run these vehicles. I buy gold and silver for security of ownership and direct leverage to the metals. Therefore I take physical delivery of my bullion and ensure that I am on the only one who can protect my access and storage of my wealth. Those who ignore that simple concept do so at their own peril. Beware whom you grant access to the keys for your Ferrari...
cheers!
MexicoMike
http://www.smartinvestment.ca/

source www.lemetropolecafe.com



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Lun 2 Juin 2008 - 17:20

David Morgan revient sur le sujet du physique et des comptes " physique" non physiques ... en rappelant qu'il y a 100 fois plus de silver paper que de silver réel, sur le marché .. avec ts les risques que cela comporte .. pour les détenteurs de silver papier

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverInvestor/1212175418.php



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MessageRe: pénurie argent métal / on y est !
par marie Jeu 5 Juin 2008 - 1:20

héhé .. us mint rationne la production de silver eagle... ce qui est tout à fait illégal.. et a pour consequence ( sinon pour but) de supprimer du marché la demande correspondante

ci dessous, magnifique lettre ouverte de Bix Weir à Paulson et au directeur de us mint

June 3, 2008

Henry Paulson
US Secretary of The Treasury
1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20220

Edmond C. Moy
Director of The US Mint
801 9th Street, NW
Room 8S23-3
Washington, D.C. 20220

RE: Illegal Rationing of US Silver Eagles

Dear Sirs:

It has come to my attention that 1oz US Silver Eagle coins are being rationed by the US Mint to 13 authorized dealers and not being made available to the public in adequate amounts.

According to US Law: 31USC5112(e) this action is illegal, and I demand that this rationing program end immediately.

http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=browse_usc&docid=Cite:+31USC5112

"(e) Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the Secretary shall mint and issue, in quantities sufficient to meet public demand, coins
which--

(1) are 40.6 millimeters in diameter and weigh 31.103 grams;
(2) contain .999 fine silver;
(3) have a design--
(A) symbolic of Liberty on the obverse side; and
(B) of an eagle on the reverse side;
(4) have inscriptions of the year of minting or issuance, and the words ``Liberty', ``In God We Trust', ``United States of America', ``1 Oz. Fine Silver', ``E Pluribus Unum', and ``One Dollar'; and
(5) have reeded edges.

(f) Silver Coins.--
(1) Sale price.--The Secretary shall sell the coins minted under subsection (e) to the public at a price equal to the market value of
the bullion at the time of sale, plus the cost of minting, marketing, and distributing such coins (including labor, materials, dies, use of machinery, and promotional and overhead expenses).
(2) Bulk sales.--The Secretary shall make bulk sales of the coins minted under subsection (e) at a reasonable discount.
(3) Numismatic items.--For purposes of section 5132(a)(1) of this title, all coins minted under subsection (e) shall be considered to be numismatic items."

Rationing Silver Eagle coins greatly distorts the "Fair Market Value" of both the coins as well as the silver used to make them. As stated in section (f) above, the public is entitled to purchase US Silver Eagle coins at the "market value of [silver] bullion" plus costs associated with production. By rationing the coins the US Treasury and US Mint are artificially suppressing the demand for physical silver thus creating artificial downward pricing pressure. The size of this artificial price/demand loss is unknown BUT given that the 1oz US Silver Eagle is by far the most popular silver coin in the world, I would suggest that the artificial suppression is significant.

The law is clear that the silver coins must be supplied to the US public in sufficient quantities EVEN IF it means the US Mint drives up the price of silver in order to obtain the silver bullion on the open market. That's how "freely traded" markets should work. Your legal obligation is to supply the public with Silver Eagles at "the fair market value" and I expect you to end the rationing program immediately.

I would also like to point out that the US Silver coin has always had tremendous historical and monetary significance to the citizens of the United States of America. It is "honest money" and to witness it's continued manipulation is sickening.

I am also sending this letter to US Attorney General Michael Mukasey to inform him that another silver crime is in progress.

Sincerely,

Bix Weir
US Citizen



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