calcul édifiant puisque
- il ne tient pas compte des pertes déja "encaissées" sur les couvertures de short à perte
- et il ne tient évidemment pas compte des pertes potentielles sur le comex et les autres marchés
leur net short position est au plus bas à environ 10.000 contrats soit 10 millions d'once gold
en prenant une hypothése basse ( perte potentielle de 100 $ l'once ), ça nous fait tout de même 1 milliard de $ de pertes potentielles .. rien que pour le tocom ..
il n'est plus si absurde de penser que la contrepartie ( la fed ) ne pourra pas ou n' aura pas l'autorisation de financer cette perte ..et les autres ..bien entendu ..
Goldman Sachs and gold…
Goldman Sachs professes to be comfortable with holding large amounts of Level 3 assets. I wonder if that includes any of their underwater TOCOM gold contracts? They have been massively short all the way up from $271 to the $920 stage where we are now. On the TOCOM alone GS holds a short position of roughly 10,000 contracts. 10,000 contracts represents 320,000 kilograms of gold, or about 10 million ounces of the precious metal. Suppose, for instance, that our friends at Goldman are underwater by $100/contract; not such a wild idea since they have been selling into a $700+ rise. That would represent a paper loss of $1 billion Dollars, plus or minus a bit—just in Japan.
Everyone familiar with GATA is probably laughing now because we all know that Goldman-Sachs’ losses are guaranteed by their friends and colleagues at the Federal Reserve. It goes without saying that the Fed will always be good for the money, so there’s no "counterparty" risk in those trades, right? That is almost certainly true, but I don’t think its a 100% sure thing any longer. As the Fed bloats its mission and purpose, it is taking greater risks and running up against the limits of its own balance sheet. That is why the WSJ has reported that the Fed is brainstorming ways to puff up its balance sheet. One thing, though; new laws will have to be passed and old laws amended before many of these plans can be executed. Given the Fed’s tight association with the Administration and considering the hostility between the ruling party in Congress and the Executive Branch and given that this is an election year, it is no sure thing that the Fed will get what it wants.
That being the case wouldn’t it be funny if Goldman Sachs was someday left holding the bag for all those gold shorts? We may never see that happen, but it’s no longer inconceivable. If that happy thought ever penetrates into the GS executive suites, there could be short covering on a scale never before witnessed in gold’s history.
And now back to our regularly scheduled manipulation...
pour mémo le graphe au 18 mars 2008 , Adrian Douglas