Pourquoi et comment investir dans l’or et l’argent ? Plus qu’un placement d’opportunité, il s’agit avant tout de sécuriser le pouvoir d’achat de votre épargne contre l’érosion monétaire et les conséquences de la crise systémique mondiale, tout en déjouant les pièges que réserve le marché de l’or et de l’argent, à l’investisseur non averti.
Stocks Comex / demandes de livraison / suivi des demandes de livraison pour le contrat décembre 2008
pour le moment, rien de fumant ..
demande livraison Or physique : 8600 contrats. livrés . 860.000 onces, mais le mois n'est pas fini ...
à titre d'exemple, on avait eu en oct 2008 plus de 1.000.000 onces d'Or physique livrées .. le record à battre étant celui de juin 2006 à plus de 3 millions d'once d'or physique ..
demande livraison Argent physique, c'est pas fumant non plus .. avec 3040 contrats déja livrés soit 15 millions d'onces
par contre, ce qui est interessant c'est de mater, surla notice de livraison du Comex, qui livre, et qui demande ...
voir les colonnes respectives DEL et ACCEP pour respectivement Or et Argent The "issuer" , c'est le vendeur ,et the "stopper" est celui qui prend livraison du métal . DEL = short positions "stopped", which now needs to deliver gold. ACC = long positions who issued delivery notices.
celui qui "écrit" la notice de livraison, the issuer, c'est le vendeur celui qui prend livraison du métal, le stopper
pour mémo l'historique des Demandes de livraison du Comex depuis sept 2005 , source www.lemetropolecafe.com
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Hi Bill Lots of talk about delivery for the December contracts in gold & silver on the web so I thought I'd do some charts on them. I only have data going back a few years but here's what I've got. So we have to beat 50,000,000 ounces of silver & 3,500,000 ounces of gold. Cheers Nick
Hardinvestor / livraisons d'or et d'argent physique sur le Comex
Bill, There were very big withdrawals of silver from the COMEX on 11/26. 56,308 ozs were withdrawn from the registered category and 572,501 ozs were withdrawn from the eligible category. Total stocks stand at 128.6 Mozs of which 80.7Mozs are in the dealer inventory (registered). Cheers Adrian
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et également un lien spécifique , pas mal du tout, pour suivre, au jour le jour, les Demandes de livraison d'or et d'argent physique, des contrats décembre :
Dan Norcini chez sinclair pour les livraisons Comex d'or physique , update de lundi 1 déc
Today we had another 2,566 deliveries that were taken, or stopped, against the December gold contract. That brings the monthly total to 11,166 ounces in just two days worth of deliveries. The entire month of October had only 11,554 to give you an idea how heavy the buying of the actual metal has been so far. Once again the stopper of size has been Bank of Nova Scotia. We are off to a very good start but cannot relax.
soit déplétion du "registered" de 39.10% pour les stocks d'or physique du comex, et 21.8% pour ceux de l'argent physique
les stocks du comex n'appartiennent pas au comex mais bien à des propriétaires nominatifs ( privés, banques etc )
seule la catégorie regisrered est disponible à la vente/ livraison...au cours auquel le propriétaire l'a décidé... pas forcément celui du spot
le métal "éligible" , est tout simplement le métal gardienné, pour son propriétaire dans les coffres du comex .. avec registered warehouse reçu et no de séries .. sans qu'il ait pour autant, déclaré une quelquonque intention de le vendre ... et encore moins fixé un prix
en résumé : si j'ai de l'or physique en eligible et que je souhaite le vendre ... ça passe d'éligible en registered .., à vendre à tel prix
si je suis bullion bank et que j'ai du métal en stock...
je peux soit le mettre en registered ( et là c'est pot commun pour couvrir mes vades ou celle des autres )
si je le laisse en eligible, je peux également le mobiliser..
si je suis vadeur et que je n'ai pas de métal.. et qu'on me demande livraison :
je vais devoir acheter à l'un des propriétaires en registered, au prix qu'il me demandera .
( article sorti de mes archives perso et datant de janv 2004.. donc valable uniquement pour les définitions, pas pour l'actualité du comex . )
GATA’s Ed Steer sent the following to a Café member on January 11. It may clear up some questions about the gold/silver inventories: Hi Ed, Bill Murphy asked me to take this bull by the horns because it was my quote re: the COMEX/NYMEX that was in his MIDAS commentary tonight (Friday).
One of the most confusing (but ultimately most simple) things to understand is these two categories.
It took me years to figure this out, and the one who ultimately explained it to me was the silver master himself, Ted Butler. The main reason I didn't ask sooner was that I didn't want to admit to anyone how ignorant I was. My ego got in the way of common sense. Don't feel bad Ed, you are part of the majority out there! Once Ted started to explain it to me, it took less than five minutes to understand. And by the time you are through reading this, you will understand too.
Right off the bat, all the silver on the COMEX is owned by someone, and it is not the COMEX itself, they are simply the storage facility. They used to have more than a dozen storage facilities, and now they only have four left.
As you know, silver on the COMEX is in two categories....registered and eligible
First of all Ed, you have your categories reversed. It's natural to fall into this trap, because that's where I was. So are many others. It's actually the other way around. Silver MUST be in the registered category in order for it to be in a position to be sold by its owner (whoever that may be). Any silver in the eligible category is not in a position to be sold. It has a Registered Warehouse Receipt attached to it...right down to the bar number, weight and owner...and is paid for in full. Don't let the "Registered" part of that fool you. If you have a registered warehouse receipt and you are storing it at the COMEX and it is NOT for sale, it is in the 'eligible' category...no matter how counter-intuitive that might seem!
Even the silver that is owned in the "Registered" category has a Registered Warehouse Receipt attached to it, the only difference is that the owner (whoever that might be) has advised the COMEX that he is willing to sell...at the price of his chosing...which may not be anywhere near spot...but it IS for sale if someone is prepared to pay their asking price.
Every bar in the COMEX is in one of these two positions.
How do these silver bars get switched from eligible to registered...and back again? It's probably very simple. First of all, these bars do not go anywhere...they never physically move off their pallets...probably not even between warehouses. Every bar and/or pallet of silver has a UBC sticker on it (like everything does you buy at the grocery store), and it's location (which warehouse has title to it at that time...no matter which warehouse it's in), weight, serial number and owner, is kept in a computer at the COMEX...probably very similar (if not identical) to the ones that you and I use.
Let's take what happened on the COMEX on Thursday as a "for instance". There were several movements. Two were exchanges between eligible and registered and one was a shipment from the eligible category off the COMEX to whoever owned it...i.e. the owner of the Registered Warehouse Receipt in the 'eligible' category took physical delivery of his metal. I believe it was a shade over 5,000 ounces. This is five 'good delivery' bars, and that equals one silver contract.
But the biggie of the day was the 13.4 million ounces that shifted from 'registered' to 'eligible'. What happened was one of either two things:
1) Someone who owned the silver that they had up for sale (at whatever price) decided that they didn't want to sell it anymore, so they picked up the phone, faxed, e-mailed whatever instructions were necessary for someone on the COMEX to sit down at their computer and with a few key strokes, changed 13.4 million ounces from the registered category to the eligible category.
2) Someone had 13.4 million ounces stored and for sale (in the 'registered' category) at whatever price, and someone else bought it. Upon receipt of payment, the old owner transferred title of the 13.4 million ounces of silver to the new owner. The new owner then picked up the phone, faxed, e-mailed whatever instructions were necessary for someone on the COMEX to sit down at their computer and with a few key strokes, changed 13.4 million ounces from the registered category to the eligible category.
Silver that is received by the COMEX is also owned by someone...who is sending it there for storage. And whether it goes into the registered or eligible category when it arrives, depends upon the instructions of the owner when the "big rig" backs into the (un)loading dock.
Silver delivered on or after 'first day of notice' always comes out of registered because the eligible category is NOT for sale.
As of Friday night, there were 123 million ounces of silver sitting on the COMEX; 72 million in the eligible category that is NOT for sale, and 51 million in the registered category that IS for sale. But on Wednesday, there were 63 million in the registered category and 60 million in the eligible category. That is the 20% swing in both categories that I was talking about in Bill Murphy's MIDAS commentary on Friday night. This is a BIG move, and if it stays that way, will have huge implications for the price (and availability of silver) in the future.
The day after all this happened, silver was up 25 cents....need I say more.
So even though all that silver is sitting there (on the COMEX), most of it (including all of the eligible category) is just 'window dressing'. Even a lot of the silver in the registered category, although for sale, is only for sale at a much higher price over spot. That price is unknown to us. So what is actually for sale at current prices is only a small fraction (very small actually) of the total of 123million ounces that we can currently see.
So it is easy to understand just how close we actually are to a short squeeze of biblical proportions on virtually every 'first notice' date. One of these days someone, or a group of someones, is going to make it happen. Then look out!
And that...in the broad strokes...is all there is to it.
Ted Butler has written a couple of essays about this. Here are the URLs.
Another first rate silver expert of note is Dave Morgan. He has a monthly news letter (I'm a subscriber, and it is well worth the subscription price) and his web site is at
Either of these gentlemen will be able to help you if you have some really detailed questions regarding the nether regions of the NYMEX/COMEX, and you should be speaking to either one of them. That's what I do.
I hope that helps.
Ed Steer GATA Edmonton, Alberta Canada _________________
For those who aren’t familiar with the terminology, the registered category of COMEX warehouse bullion stocks generally refers to gold and silver bars against which COMEX warehouse receipts are outstanding. The COMEX publishes these stocks on a daily basis and they can be found here: SilverGold. The registered category is the total pool of gold and silver available at any time to meet delivery requirements under expiring futures contracts or to establish initial futures contract positions through a transaction called exchange-for-physicals (I’ll explain this another time). It is important to realize, however, that many parties holding COMEX gold and silver in registered form have no intention of making their holdings available for delivery.By this I mean that such parties are neither (1) holding a short futures position against the warehouse receipt nor (2) willing to sell their registered metal (warehouse receipts) to a party with a short futures position. Indeed, a substantial portion of those holding registered metal would have acquired the COMEX warehouse receipts by holding long futures positions for delivery. In other words, these registered stocks are held for investment and not for commercial purposes.
In comparison, the eligible category of COMEX warehouse bullion stocks generally refers to bullion held in the warehouses that meets the specifications of an acceptable COMEX bar (proper weight, size, purity and refiner) but does not have a COMEX warehouse receipt issued against it. For example, an investor might purchase several 1,000 oz. bars of silver from a dealer and then deliver the bars for allocated storage at a COMEX warehouse. This is a private arrangement and has nothing to do with the COMEX. Unless these bars are officially registered (the easiest way to do this is through the aforementioned exchange-for-physicals), they will remain in the eligible category until withdrawn from the warehouse by the investor. Thus, the appropriate way to treat eligible COMEX warehouse bullion stocks is that they represent metal that could potentially be registered at some point in the future but cannot presently be used to make delivery under a short futures contract.
à cette lecture, on comprend que le stock "registered" est nettement supérieur aux intentions de "livrer" l'or ou l'argent physique.. c'est un point capital
The more buyers that can be recruited to this effort, particularly buyers of large size, the more difficult the life of the paper shorts will become. Short of taking delivery of the actual metal, preferably pulling it out of the warehouses, the shorts can reign supreme over this market. What’s more – they are doing this with impunity as they pay no price financially to do so and profit quite handsomely I might add. Strip them of the metal and they are cooked. Then they will have to compete on a level playing field like the rest of us. Who was it that said, “He who sells what isn’t his’n, must pay the price or go to prison”? If the paper shorts are selling what doesn’t exist, namely tons of actual gold, forcing them to show us the actual metal will work to modify their behavior. This is the only way to keep the Comex gold market honest.
à la date d'aujourd'hui, il ne reste plus que 2118 contrats or physique ( 211.800 onces) à livrer sur déc ...ça fera donc pas le poids pour cette fois ci ...mais ça a déja bien vidé les stocks.. héhé ..
à moins, bien sur que d'ici la fin du mois, d'autres acheteurs du contrat décembre, se pointent.... et demandent livraison au comex...
la prochaine échéance importante sera le mois de février où nous avons un open interest gold de 161027 contrats
ps: un point TRES interessant ..
- au 28-11-2008; l'oi gold décembre était de 16053 contrats... ce qui signifie que si les 2118 contrats restant à ce jour font l'objet d'une demande de livraison, nous avons eu sur ce mois 13876 contrats livrés soit 86% de l'open interest de ce mois arreté au au 28-11 ( évidemment une bonne partie des contrats déc a été roulée sur février , précédement .. )
Hardinvestor / positions ouvertes sur les futures du comex
- nous arrivons également au niveau du mois d'octobre 2008 qui avait eu 11 .554 contrats livrés .. une très bonne performance ( voir graphe plus haut dans la file)
aujourd'hui et pour les livraisons d'argent physique sur le Comex, c'est triland usa, qui est le short obligé de livrer le métal .. Triland usa qui est une filiale de mitshui corporation .. coté demandeurs de physique, c'est hsbc et scottia
pour des demandes livraison d'or physique,
hsbc est le plus gros demandeur de livraison tandis que les "livreurs appelés " sont scottia et encore Triland usa
Hi - Not sure how important this is but Scotia Capital, Inc (of the COMEX Scotia Warehouse at JFK Airport fame) was just added as an "Authorized Partcipant" in the latest iShares Silver (SLV) Prospectus on December 4, 2008. As far as I can tell this is the first time a NEW Authorized Partcipant has ever been added to SLV. http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/SLV.htm
There are too much SMOKE between the COMEX Silver Warehouses and SLV Silver Holdings for there not to be FIRE! Bix
selon un broker de futures matières premières, le comex alerterait un certain nb de firmes tradant sur les futures de l'or d'un squeeze potentiel sur le contrat déc.. et demanderait aux 840 shorts restants de couvrir leur position
par ailleurs, B murphy a rendez vous, avec le boss de la CFTC, Bart Chilton, jeudi prochain et ce, sur la demande de ce dernier ..
Times might change soon. I received a call this morning from a commodities broker who told me the Comex is alerting various futures firms about the potential of a squeeze on the December contract and is advising the 840 December shorts to exit their positions. That is the remaining open position. There have been 12,636 notices of delivery. The shorts have until December 31 to make delivery. Normally, they deliver early to take in cash and earn the interest. They must be delaying. As I understand the situation, that represents about 40% of the available gold at the Comex, and of course, someone could enter the scene late, buy Feb gold, and then spread into December, which would stun the shorts. My broker friend said his back office said this sort of alert is highly unusual and that the concern is real, not only for gold, but other commodities too like copper and palladium, as there is a good deal of talk of taking deliveries there too. But gold is the one in which the advice to cover went out. This is an extremely productive development and could spur the price of gold up quickly as word spreads. As we all know, buying Comex gold and silver (the cheapest way to buy precious metals) makes all the sense in the world in this financial environment. On a related note… Silver… Bill, I have been watching the COMEX silver warehouse inventory. It has been dropping between 500,000 and 750,000 per day for the last few days. Yesterday 701,900 ozs were removed of which 693,808 ozs were from the dealers’ registered inventory. The total inventory now stands at 126,826,996 ozs and the dealer registered inventory is 77,756,068 ozs while the eligible inventory is 49,070,928 ozs. Just last week the registered category was above 80 Mozs. Delivery notices currently stand at 29.5 Mozs for December which, if taken off the exchange, will take a big hole out of 77Mozs! Cheers Adrian
A l'intention de certains indélicats des forums pourceau qui me font l'honneur insigne de repomper tel quel mes messages sans citer la source ni l'auteur, je rappelle que le contenu ci-dessus n'appartient qu à moi et est soumis à la règlementation relative aux droits d'auteurs, de telle sorte que vous ne pouvez pas en faire un copié-collé sans citer G.Sandro ET le lien du forum Argent Or d'Hardinvestor (ou l'url complète du message) ; sous peine de vous voir flanquer, (à titre de peine complémentaire et donc en sus des dispositions pénales sus-visées), un baveux sur les lunettes, un affichage de la photo du portail Hardinvestor dans le dos pour un nombre de jours équivalent au cours du Gold en US pesos et une amende indemnitaire indexée sur le taux d' hyperfella... heu hyperinflation. Pour suivre Hardinvestor sur Twitter
COMEX Warehouse Silver Shift Bill, On Tuesday there was major activity with the COMEX silver warehouse statistics. The main activity though was at the HSBC warehouse where 9,436,026 ounces of silver was withdrawn from the registered category. Of this amount, 132,814 ounces were withdrawn from the exchange and 9,303,212 ounces were switched to the eligible category. This is by far the largest change in categorization since September 2006. For the day total COMEX registered silver holdings dropped 9,551,447 ounces from 77,750,977 to 68,199,530. COMEX now has 12.3% fewer silver bullets to shoot at the market. Total warehouse stocks are now down to 126,972,398 ounces. Regards, Bryant
ça veut dire que les propriétaires d'argent physique ayant stocké leur métal chez HSBC, ne souhaitent plus vendre 9.3 millions d'onces !... qu'ils ont fait passer de la catégorie registered à éligible ( revoir les définitions plus haut ) auquelles se rajoutent l'évaporation de 132814 onces d'argent, sorties totalement des coffres de HSBC ...
1ere fois qu'un mouvement aussi important a lieu depuis sept 2006 .. bref ça nous fait un stock de registered silver comex de 68.19 millions d'onces en baisse de 12.3%
au fait, et tout à fait accessoirement, avez vous eu que HSBC est la 3eme banque "gagnante" apres santander et fortis ds l'affaire madoff? ( pour 730 millions d'euros)
A l'intention de certains indélicats des forums pourceau qui me font l'honneur insigne de repomper tel quel mes messages sans citer la source ni l'auteur, je rappelle que le contenu ci-dessus n'appartient qu à moi et est soumis à la règlementation relative aux droits d'auteurs, de telle sorte que vous ne pouvez pas en faire un copié-collé sans citer G.Sandro ET le lien du forum Argent Or d'Hardinvestor (ou l'url complète du message) ; sous peine de vous voir flanquer, (à titre de peine complémentaire et donc en sus des dispositions pénales sus-visées), un baveux sur les lunettes, un affichage de la photo du portail Hardinvestor dans le dos pour un nombre de jours équivalent au cours du Gold en US pesos et une amende indemnitaire indexée sur le taux d' hyperfella... heu hyperinflation. Pour suivre Hardinvestor sur Twitter
la SEC ou la CFTC n'ont pourtant pas à aller chercher bien loin, les preuves de cette fraude manifeste ..( elle n'ont qu'à consulter leurs propres rapports ) fraude manifeste, puisque rappelons le, un vendeur de contrats à terme, s'engage formellement à délivrer au terme du contrat, la marchandise vendue. si l'acheteur en fait la demande ..
c'est précisément ce qui fait la spécifité des marchés de future, par opposition à d'autres marchés, comme par ex, le forex ..
baveux sur les lunettes, un affichage de la photo du portail Hardinvestor dans le dos pour un nombre de jours équivalent au cours du Gold en US pesos et une amende indemnitaire indexée sur le taux d' hyperfella... heu hyperinflation.
