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default palladium Tocom de février 2000

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Message default palladium Tocom de février 2000
par marie Mer 3 Déc 2008 - 17:52

Défault du Tocom sur les futures du Palladium

réouvrons nos archives, pour mieux comprendre ce phénoméne et ces conséquences ..

cat article de Ted Butler revient en détail sur cette affaire..
en lisant ce texte, n'oubliez pas de vous remettre ds le contexte de l'époque .. où l'industrie auto tournait à plein.. et où le palladium était extremement recherché pour ses applications industrielles , notamment dans le secteur auto.. où les utlisateurs industriels, shortant le métal qu'ils n'avaient pas stocké.. ont fini par faire defaulter le tocom palladium ..


la fermeture du tocom palladium : le 23 fév 2000

In February 2000, the Tokyo Commodities Exchange sounded a warning shot for precious metal investors by "moving the goalposts" as the price of palladium contracts skyrocketed:

Financial Times: Tocom extends trading freeze
By Gillian O'Connor March 15-16 2000

The Tokyo Commodities Exchange, the main market for palladium futures, on Wednesday extended its three-week old trading freeze, forcing investors to close out existing positions at February 23 prices. Some London analysts argue that palladium futures trading will not recover from Tocom's intervention, and that business will move to the London fixing market, leaving industrial customers without a liquid market in which to hedge against future price movements...

But Ross Norman of Precious Metals Research said in London that the exchange's new trading limits also discriminate against foreign firms, and predicted that many hedge funds and traders will not return to the Tocom market...

les conséquences du défault sur le cours du palladium :

le cours passe de 755 $ ( le 23 fév 2000 ) à 1075 fin janv 2001 . puis survient la récession de 2001 qui touche également le secteur auto ... et le palladium entame une longue phase de correction


début 2000: 450$

23-02-2000: 755$ , jour de la fermeture du tocom palladium
28 dec 2000 : 956 $

29 janv 2001 : 1075 $

et pour conclure, avec l'analogie silver :

I have received e-mails from a few café members who are worried that this might in some way be bearish for silver. Let me be absolutely clear and categorical. You can not imagine anything more BULLISH than a default of an exchange for the delivery of a commodity. It means that the short sellers can not find available supply of silver to meet their contractual commitments. This would mean that an actual acute shortage of silver would be apparent an undeniable.

Silver is essential for many industrial applications. It is used to make special batteries in cameras, cell phones etc, it is used in soldering electrical connections, electronics, photography, silver plating, jewelry etc. The world can not live without silver. The only way that silver could be coaxed on to the market from holders of silver is for the price to rocket very much higher. In the event of default the holders of long contracts would receive settlement in cash and not physical silver. This is why margin deposits are required by futures traders to act as collateral against a default. Industrial users will clearly not be happy with receiving cash instead of silver but a speculator may not be too upset except he would probably prefer to hold his investment in silver rather than receive the imposed liquidated cash equivalent.

The COMEX would become a cash market where holders of real physical silver metal can sell to people wanting to buy silver for immediate delivery. There would be NO futures trading. This is what happened when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market. The rules were changed to go to a cash market and speculators were only allowed to SELL silver not to buy it! Some café members are worried that the FED would intervene in some way and manipulate the silver market down. This would be impossible. The only intervention possible would be to provide large quantities of silver but the government doesn’t have any silver. When the Hunt brothers cornered the silver market the US government still had a very large stash of silver in the Strategic Silver Reserve and so they were able to intervene. Intervention with large amounts of freshly printed dollars when people want silver metal will be totally impotent.

The amount of silver that has been sold short is far in excess of all readily identifiable large available above ground stocks (the size of these stocks are all declining). So the default bomb has the fuse lit. COMEX silver default could happen in ANY delivery month if sufficient traders stand for delivery. Unless the long futures holders capitulate en masse (which is inconceivable in a well established bull market) the default bomb WILL detonate at some point.
Adrian Douglas, sept 2005


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