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Pourquoi et comment investir dans l’or et l’argent ? Plus qu’un placement d’opportunité, il s’agit avant tout de sécuriser le pouvoir d’achat de votre épargne contre l’érosion monétaire et les conséquences de la crise systémique mondiale, tout en déjouant les pièges que réserve le marché de l’or et de l’argent, à l’investisseur non averti.


 

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chiffrage du véritable cours de l'or / Hommel

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Messagechiffrage du véritable cours de l'or / Hommel
par g.sandro Lun 15 Déc 2008 - 0:42

quelques données à ne pas sousestimer, pour le chiffrage du véritable cours de l'or


Silver Stock Report: The Invisible Grind #VWPLINK {display:none}The Invisible Grind


(Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not
seen)



Silver Stock Report


by Jason Hommel, December 11th, 2008






In my last article, What if They Returned to the Gold Standard?
December 10, 2008 I noted that gold should go to
$40,750/oz. if the $10.5 trillion of U.S. Bonds were to be backed by gold. For
those who noticed, that was an understatement.
That figure, of course, would not include the following, which would all,
also, need to be backed by U.S. gold:
1. M3, money in the US banks. Add $15 trillion.
2. Unfunded
liabilities, such as social security obligations. Add $75 trillion.
3.
Corporate bonds and Mortgages. Add $25 trillion.
4. New government bail out
give-a-way obligations. Add $8.5 or 10 trillion.
Total: $110 trillion.
This, of course, would not include all derivative bets, which are like
bonds. These would include futures on bonds, options on bonds, leveraged
currency bets, etc. That would include another $1000 trillion or so, but let's
not include that.
So, gold could go well beyond $440,000/oz., or $4 million/oz. if you include
all derivatives.

But let's be conservative, and assume that society is not ready for such a
drastic change, and let's be optimistic for our oppressors who print paper
dollars, and assume that the current system will die a slow death that lasts 20
years as it takes a whole new generation to adapt to change. After all, the
gold bear market lasted 21-28 years, and the new bull market may well last
another 20-30.
Most people don't understand how compounding works.
Let's assume that it takes 20 years for gold to reach $40,000/oz. from $800.
How much of an increase per year would it take, on average, to get there? The
compound interest calculators answer.
http://www.smartmoney.com/compoundcalc/
All we need to do, is input the three figures.
Starting amount: $800
Ending amount: $40,000
Duration: 20 years
Out pops the compounded gains, or interest rate: 21.6%
So, as you can see, this is not unrealistic.
After all, gold already rose from $250 in 2001 to $1000 by 2008, over 7
years, which is an annual increase of 21.9%.
The other problem would be:
Start with $800
End with $440,000
Duration: 30 years
Annual gain: 23.41%
But here's why I call this the "invisible grind". Most people assume I'm
talking about a parabolic spike in the price. Yes, on a regular chart, it looks
like that; unless you are looking at a log chart, in which case, it's a straight
line.
But on a daily basis, you can also break that down, to determine the daily
compounded gains!
Note, with gold trading 5 days/week, there are 261 trading days in a year.

(365 x 5/7 = 260)
So, to determine the daily gains, again, you only need input 3 numbers:
Initial investment: 1
Final investment: 1.23 (representing the annual
interest rate of 23%)
Duration: 260 years (but in this case, the years, stand
for days)
The annualized rate (which is the DAILY GAIN) 0.08%!
So, look. I will always say, if you ask me, "Jason, which direction will
gold (or silver) go?", I'll guess one way: UP! And the answer for how much is
"A LOT". And the answer for when is "now".
But the real story is that the daily gains are almost infinitesimal,
unnoticeable, or invisible.
What is a 0.08% gain, on a daily basis?
$800 x 1.00.08 = $800.64
Do you understand a bit more now? There is no need to watch the daily price
of gold. You will not see it move from $800 to $440,000, over a period of 30
years, on a daily basis.
The gold price could gain less than 1/10 of 1% per day, and take us there
quite easily.
On that basis, manipulators can move the gold price down on 2/3 of the days,
and let it spike up on 1/3 of the days, and convince most people who have an
attention span of 15 minutes that gold was in a bear market during the entire
bull market!
So, the common question of the day is, "Jason, if you know gold is headed to
$40,000 and beyond, and silver is headed to $8000 and beyond, then why are you
selling out?"
These people have no comprehension or understanding of compounding gains.
There are two ways to make it.
A. Hold silver.
B. Deal silver.
If I deal silver, I can make more than holding silver, but I need to make
more than 0.08% per day, and I need to avoid default risk.
What if it takes me a week to replace my silver? Easy problem. Again, 3
numbers on the compound interest calculator:
Initial investment: $1000
Rate of return: 0.08%
Years invested
(standing for days) = 7
Final amount: 1006.
So, at $10.00/oz., if it takes me a week to turn my silver, I need to make
$.06 per oz., after all costs, shipping, minting, packaging, labor, taxes, etc.
just to break even with holding silver, but that still does not compensate for
the default risk, which is an unknown quantity!
And if it takes me 14 days, I need to make $.11/oz. (after all costs),
minimum, to break even.
If if the turn around time is 28 days, I need to make $.23/oz.! (after all
costs), minimum, to break even.
And if the turn around time is 60 days, I need to make $.49/oz.! (after all
costs), minimum, to break even.
And if the mint tells me it's a 5 month manufacturing time, I need to make
$1.27/oz! (after all costs), minimum, to break even.
(All of that, is with an assumption of silver at $10/oz. Costs double if
silver doubles, naturally.)
And none of that is enough compensation for the default risk. Mints with a 5
month delay should not be trusted.

And again, for people who noticed,
there will be a LOT more inflation over the next 20-30 years, so, again, those
are all understatements.
But some people understand, that a fast turn around time, in a bull market
for metals, is worth quite a lot.
This is why I believe it is an advantage to you, for me to pre-package, and
ship SAME DAY as your wire comes in, at my silver auctions at www.seekbullion.com. I hope to encourage you to buy silver from
me, and to encourage you to become silver dealers yourselves.
So many people in other nations ask me where they can get silver. I usually
suggest a jeweler, who may know some bulk suppliers. But more often, they don't
seem to recognize that the lack of dealers is the gift of a monopoly on a
territory, in a sea of people with no comprehension of money.
My current plan is to be able to offer silver on an increasingly regular
basis, daily, in size, so that I can become a regular supplier for dealers.
I'm still working on speeding up my own turn around time, and processing
ability, to facilitate your success in acquiring silver on a timely basis.


After all, time is money.


Sincerely,




Jason Hommel
www.seekbullion.com
www.silverstockreport.com
www.bibleprophesy.org



Silver is king, Go Gold !
© G.Sandro Forum Argent Or, pas de copier collé, faire un lien vers ce post
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   g.sandro

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MessageBasic Info on Silver
par g.sandro Jeu 9 Juin 2011 - 2:07

Informations basiques sur l'argent métal


(For the Tea Party)


Silver Stock Report


by Jason Hommel, June 3rd, 2011



What is the Federal Reserve? And why do some say we should use
Constitutional money, such as silver and gold?
I'm hearing that most Americans, even in the Tea Party, don't know who the
Fed is, or why we need to use silver and gold as money. This article is for
them.
If you have USA paper money in your wallet, or if you have money in the bank,
then you have been ripped off. Paper money in the USA used to be called "silver
certificates", as recently as 1964, which was 47 years ago.
They were called silver certificates, because each "note" stated: "This
certifies that there have/has been deposited in the Treasury of the United
States of America (number) silver dollar(s) payable to the bearer on
demand."
This turned out to be a great big lie. It was fraud. Current paper money is
the evidence of the theft.
I used to call paper money an "unjust weight and measure", but paper money
today is no weight and measure of anything at all. It's a broken promise to pay
a devalued amount and an unjust weight of silver!
Who cares? Well, you used to be able to get a silver dollar coin for a paper
silver certificate. They were equal in value, as one was a promise to deliver
the silver.
Today, the price of that same silver dollar coin, containing .76/oz. of
silver, costs about $30 from a coin dealer, with silver prices at $36/oz.
The paper money buys much less silver, it buys less gas, it buys less of
everything today compared with prices in 1964, and about 99% less of everything
than 100 years ago in 1911.
The Federal Reserve was created in 1913. They got a 100 year charter that
expires in 2012! Congressmen and Tea Party activists ought to seriously
reconsider the Fed's charter very carefully right now!
Right after 1913, the USA had funding to fight in World War One, and then
suffered the false bubble economy of the "roaring 20s" bull market in stocks
which, when it popped, led to the great depression in the 1930s, followed by
World War Two in the 40s.
After WWII, the US paper dollar became the world reserve currency, which
helped to effectively loot the productivity of the rest of the world. Well, we
did win the "world" war, and the world became the spoils of the war. The rest
of the world's central banks began accumulating paper dollars, instead of
gold.
This theft of the world's assets was both good and bad for the USA. Good,
because the USA can simply print the money to send to the other nations in
return for real assets such as oil, machines, food, clothing, or whatever. But
it's bad, because our nation got addicted to the benefits of the false and
inflated values of free paper money, and grew lazy, and we forgot that the
benefits and bounty of freedom are greater than the benefits of a free lunch
paid for by slaves.
Today, we are still free to go into the market and buy physical silver, and
let me tell of this wonderful opportunity in silver.
To create this paper money world in which we live, the world's bankers
launched a propaganda and education war against silver first, and then gold, to
prevent their use as money. This war dates back to the late 1860's. They
succeeded, as no nation on earth uses silver as money. Reduced monetary demand
has reduced the value for silver, making it an attractive and cheap
investment.
Then, by the end of WWII, the age of electronics began, and the use of silver
as a conductor of electricity in all sorts of electrical devices simply
exploded, about ten times as much as previously. Modern nations use about 3/4
of an ounce of silver, per person, per year, in industrial applications.
Today, world industry consumes about 600 million ounces of silver per year.
Industry consumes nearly all of world mine supply, leaving only recycled silver,
only about 200 million ounces, available for investment demand. This scarcity
of silver makes it an even more attractive investment.
The bankers of the world have not cornered the market on silver. The exact
opposite happened. They tried to make silver as cheap as possible, by not
buying it themselves, and trying to divert investment demand away from the metal
where ever and when ever they could.
For example, any time any of the clients of any of the major western LBMA
(London Bullion Market Association) banks wanted to buy silver, the banks said,
"sure", and opened up silver and gold accounts for their clients, without going
out to buy and store the actual metal, yet they charged their clients storage
fees. This created, according to the BIS (the Bank of International
Settlements) a "gold and silver" liability that is up to about $600 billion in
gold, and about $200 billion in silver. That's about 6 years worth of world
mine annual production of gold, and about 10 year's worth of annual production
of silver. That's silver and gold that the major banks owe their clients, and
never bought in the real market, to help suppress prices, and prop up paper
money.
Another way that banks suppress silver prices includes offering
investment-grade sized silver certificates (not paper money), as they do in
Canada and Australia even today.
But when they offer bullion accounts, or certificates, those trade in a
non-transparent way, as they don't create price quotes, and it's difficult to
find information on how much bullion fraud has taken place.
The main way that the banks manipulate the prices of silver and gold is
through the futures markets that generate minute by minute price quotes that
other industry players such as refiners and miners and large bullion wholesalers
must look to in order to conduct business to buy and sell silver and gold.
Futures markets are price manipulative and price suppressive because the
sellers offer far more silver than they have, and they offer silver on the worst
possible terms and conditions.
They offer to sell up to 800 million ounces of silver, on paper, over a year,
when they only have about 30 million oz. of silver in their vaults ready for
delivery. Why then, do people buy paper silver? The lure of greed through
leverage. You can put only about 10-15% of the money down to buy silver, and
thus, if silver prices double, you can earn 1000% on your investment, instead of
100%.
But what honest industrial participant needs silver "a month or so from now"
for delivery at some vague time within a whopping 30 day time period, and in the
form of a bulky 1000 oz. bar that is particularly difficult to ship by mail or
even melt down? I won't even bother ordering any silver from any supplier who
will take even 21 days to ship it out. I expect my suppliers to ship out silver
the next day, like we do, or maybe at the most, a week after I wire them the
money.
The modern way to keep people away from buying and taking delivery of real
silver is to offer silver in the form of an "Exchange Traded Fund" or ETF, such
as SLV, which can be bought or sold as easily as a share of a stock in a company
like Microsoft. Recently, it was pointed out that the modern forms of paper
silver, such as the futures markets and ETF's traded an entire year's worth of
silver production in a single day. I don't think that would be possible unless
there was a massive amount of fraud taking place, instead of any real delivery
of real silver taking place, but that's just my opinion, of course.
Real silver is real freedom.
All forms of paper silver are like slavery; the paper virtually enslaves the
promising party, the seller, to deliver and perform for the promised party, the
buyer. But the promises are often broken, especially when entities promise to
deliver many more times worth of gold and silver than flows in the world on an
annual basis.
The slavery is bad. Defrauding others is bad.
But real silver creates real freedom.
A real understanding and commitment to own and trade real silver also
destroys the power of governments to steal from the people through the Federal
Reserve's monopoly power to print money, which devalues people's money.
The paper money in your pocket (formerly silver certificates) is the best
evidence and reminder that promises to deliver silver are always created to
excess, for the purpose of fraud.
Think: What kind of business is it, if you can take people's money, and
never have to deliver the underlying product? That's what banking is.
Buying real physical silver from a coin shop, like www.jhmint.com,
helps to reveal the fraud of paper money, and thus end it. Buying silver, is a
rejection of paper money which destroys the Fed, destroys taxation, and destroys
tyrannical governments.


=====

I strongly advise you to take possession of real gold and
silver, at anywhere near today's prices, while you still can. The fundamentals
indicate rising prices for decades to come, and a major price spike can happen
at any time.



Silver is king, Go Gold !
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