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| | break out des taux us 30 ans sur LT |  |
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 break out des taux us 30 ans sur LT
par marie Sam 20 Fév 2010 - 0:20 | |
| comme vous le voyez ce graphe D'Adrian Douglas démarre en 1977..et l'oblique baissière débute juste à a fin du dernier bull gold market si ça se confirme, c'est LE signal d'anthologie !! www.lemetropolecafe.comBill, I have drawn the most generous resistance line on the yield of the 30 Year Bond on a chart that goes back 33 years. The yield has broken above this. It is impossible to over emphasize the significance of this. Once yields start rising and dumping of bonds gets into fashion the US debt can not be serviced out of revenues let alone paid back! It’s hard to think of a more bullish case for gold particularly when this chart starts at the end of the last great bull market in gold. Cheers Adrian   Marie Pas de copier-coller: merci de faire un lien vers ce post. Suivez Hardinvestor sur Twitter et sur Facebook |
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Skipper
Inscription : 05/02/2005
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| | | Re: break out des taux us 30 ans sur LT
par g.sandro Sam 20 Fév 2010 - 22:21 | |
| Idéalement, faudrait valider ça avec un graphe en linéaire, mais c'est vrai qu'un B.O comme ça...ça fait un bail qu'on l'anticipait, redoutait, espérait...un peu tout ça en même temps, paradoxalement...  Silver is king, Go Gold !
G.Sandro pas de copier collé: merci de faire un lien vers ce post. Suivez Hardinvestor sur Twitter et sur Facebook |
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Captain
Inscription : 04/02/2005
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| | | Re: break out des taux us 30 ans sur LT
par marie Jeu 25 Fév 2010 - 1:57 | |
| oui, je sais .. ici on n'aime pas Prechter ..le pape des vagues .. n'empeche qu'il prévoit un crack sur les obligs ... pour la suite, comme le fait remarquer Adrian, son conseil de rester en cash. est plus que moyen .. , bref, voila le topo ******************************* Bullish a Year Ago, Robert Prechter Now Sees "the Biggest Bubble in History" Bill, http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/bullish-a-year-ago-robert-prechter-now-sees-%22the-biggest-bubble-in-history%22-429931.html?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,TBT,UUP,SHY,JNK,TLT&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Robert Prechter sees the bond market as the biggest bubble in history. No problem there…I fully agree.
QUOTE
"The individual investor has been more or less abandoning stocks" and buying bond funds, Prechter concedes. "I think that is going from the frying pan into the fire. The bond market is the biggest bubble in the history of the world. "
END
But what is his advice?...HOLD CASH! You have to be kidding me! Has he never studied what happens to the buying power of a currency in a country where the sovereign debt market bubble bursts? I can only believe he is either ignorant or on the payroll of someone that prevents him from recommending the only logical asset, GOLD.
Cheers
Adrian… *********** bon, après .. Adrian pique une crise, justifiée sur la suite des propos de Prechter concernant déflation .. je vous mets ça pour info Bill, More garbage from Prechter….. QUOTE Contrary to popular belief, noted technical analyst Robert Prechter says the extraordinary action taken by the Federal Reserve to bail out the economy will not lead to runaway inflation. "Deflation is gaining the upper hand very, very slowly, but it's happening," Prechter the founder of Elliott Wave International tells Tech Ticker. Of course, as anyone familiar with his work knows, he's been saying this for years. Why should we believe him now?
For the first time since 1982 core inflation fell in January as measured by the consumer price index. Prechter says it's even more noteworthy that it's happening "in the face of this tremendous amount of stimulus...from the government and a real attempt at stimulus from the central bank."
Prechter describes the forces of deflation as a "socio-nomic" shift in social mood that will prevent Federal Reserve Chairman from printing too much money. "At some point, the voters - as you can already see from the Tea Parties - are going to start saying we've had enough" with government spending and bailouts.
END
OMG! Prechter is using the bogus negative CPI number of January to finally lend credence to the deflation case he has been peddling for years. He obviously doesn’t know that this number was NOT negative. It was an arithmetic error pointed out by Karl Denninger.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1984-CPI-Number-Reported-INTENTIONALLY-INCORRECT.html
So how can any intelligent person say that the US Bond market is the biggest bubble in history and then predict deflation??? When the government can’t fund itself from selling debt in a collapsing bond market, and then due to rocketing interest rates the existing debt servicing cost increases above tax receipts, what does he think the government is going to do? Become the ultimate fiscal conservatives or print, print, print? He seems to think that it will be the first option due to the influence of the Tea-Partyers! The government’s track record so far flies in the face of that theory. Also 6000 years of human history fly in the face of that theory. There will be hyper-inflation, and Prechter will continue to be wrong. History also shows that as prices start to rise the people ask for more money, not less, because they see a lack of money as the problem in not being able to pay higher prices. It is a cruel irony that hyper-inflation gets into a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop.
Cheers
Adrian Marie Pas de copier-coller: merci de faire un lien vers ce post. Suivez Hardinvestor sur Twitter et sur Facebook |
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Skipper
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Skipper
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| | | Re: break out des taux us 30 ans sur LT
par g.sandro Mar 6 Avr 2010 - 3:16 | |
| Le B.O n'est pas tout à fait réalisé àmha...
alors gaffe quand même, la nouvelle est d'une telle importance qu'elle doit être validée sans ambiguité, àmha.
Et du reste, je vois que c'est précisé en page 2 de l'article:
- Citation :
- The yield on the 30-year Treasury closed above 4.65% for the last six
trading sessions, and above 4.75% for four of those days. (It closed
Thursday at 4.73%.) Aden would like to see it stay above 4.75% for two
weeks to confirm this "megatrend change." traduc == > les soeurs Aden voudraient le voir au dessus de 4.75% pendant les 2 semaines qui viennent, pour confirmer ce changement majeur de trend
J'ai agrandi le graph ==>
[img]  [/img] Silver is king, Go Gold !
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Captain
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