| silver sous toutes les coutures / très excitant |
par g.sandro Dim 31 Oct 2010 - 12:53
Exciting picture for Silver from detailed chart analysis,..
Source: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com Bill,Working through the charts this morning I think I might of stumbled on something very significant,You are well aware of my ‘high’ expectations for silver in the months ahead (and the rest of the precious metals complex),However I’m starting to wonder if even I’m undercooking the potential for the sector over the next 6 months or so,Below is a monthly chart of silver showing it’s performance over the last decade, As can be clearly seen from the graph silver started it’s run up a little later than gold in about 2003, Whilst a roller coaster, It’s seen quite a rise since then!Joining the upper ‘dots’ together, there is clearly strong linear evidence (from an historical context) that the peak of this next spike is likely to occur at around the $30/oz,However I think that this only accounts for half the story, And this is the exciting part,Turning back the clock, let’s look how gold faired in the early years of it’s Bull Run, The chart below highlights it’s progress from it’s start in 2001 to late 2005,Again like silver’s early years there is a strong linear pattern to the height of the spikes on each wave, As such it would have been entirely reasonable for even the most bullish of analysts to expect the spike up in late 2005 to end around the $550 level, And after all that would have given a very satisfactory 20+% gain in a few short months,So what happened next?Anyone who sold out on the historical and entirely reasonable assumptions would have been left out of over 60% of the overall 9 month spike,On top of that, anyone who left the train, in the anticipation of rejoining it back down the line on an inevitable correction was in for a nasty surprise, Whilst it corrected hard in 2006 it never came back below that initial break out level again! The Bull had successfully shaken a number of it’s riders!Of course comparing eggs with eggs gives no guarantee of future price movements and just because gold broke higher out of it’s historical upper trend line, this is no absolute reason to expect silver to do the same, However there is more that points to the possibility that history may very well be about to repeat,The graphs above are all in US dollar terms, The picture for gold changes when looked at in other currencies,Whilst Gold’s Bull Run began in US dollar terms in 2001 in terms of the Euro, Sterling, Swiss Franc, Loonie, Aussie and Yen it only really began in earnest in mid 2005! Coincidently around the same time as the Bull Spike that flattened the linear historical averages of the past,See the charts below,Ok, So what does this have to do with silver?Well in the same way that gold finally broke the shackles in every currency back in mid 2005, silver seems to be in the process at present of a major breakout across the global basket,In almost every currency silver has actually performed rather poorly in annual gain terms since it’s spike highs of 2006, The main exception to this is it’s performance in British Pound terms, which is more a reflection on what a terrible state that currency is in, than where the price of silver currently stands, However in the last 3 months it has broken out across almost the whole board, with only the Yen left (a reflection of an extraordinarily strong currency),What seems increasingly clear to me is that silver is embarking on a major breakout across the whole spectrum of global currencies, in a similar way that gold did in mid 2005, The implications to this are that silver is very probably entering a new phase of it’s Bull Run, which may very well render much of the historic metric for analysis and trading purposes largely useless or inconsistent at very least,This is a warning to all those expecting silver to stop out and peak on it’s current spike up at around the $30 level, You may find yourselves leaving the train many miles short of the final destination and may have great difficultly clambering back on at anything like the levels you left!If the 2005 upper trend line breakout of gold’s is any measure to go by, silver could very easily vault to $45 in this current spike up with little break for air in between!Remember the adage: The Bull will do it’s upmost to unseat it’s rider and gallop with as few on it’s back as possible,
Rich (Live from ‘The Scarborough Bullion Desk’)Richard Guthrie
Broadland Properties Ltd
Telephone +44 (0)1723 373461
Fax +44 (0)1723 500021
Silver is king, Go Gold !
G.Sandro Forum Argent
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