Les raisons du Break OUT vs ttes devises By Peter Brimelow
et stats M3 supprimées etc
Le Metropole Members,
By Peter Brimelow
Monday, November 14, 2005http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE41A33BD%2D28D2%2D448C%2DB004%2D275D91CAADEB%7D&siteid=mktw&dist
NEW YORK -- Even gold's friends seemed surprised by its
strength last week, rallying by 2.5% on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The gold game may not be over yet.
Australia's Privateer, which bills itself as "the private
market letter for the individual capitalist," summarized the recent action:
"This was a 'recovery' week for the ... gold correction. ...
On the daily chart, last week's $16.90 gold fall pushed gold well below both its 10- and 20-day moving averages. The $11.50 rise this week has reversed the process."
The previous week's pummeling was severe. And this last week
saw a rampage by the dollar. Oil -- which many presume sets
the tone for gold -- was soft, world equities were strong.
If that were not enough, Germany's fledgling government has started talking about selling part of the country's gold reserves.
Yet gold did well -- better, in fact, than the simple dollar-denominated price suggests. As The Privateer says in its omniscient way:
"By November 11, gold was at new bull market highs in terms
of almost every other major currency in the world. And this time, that includes at least one of the 'commodity
currencies,' the Aussie dollar ... all in the face of a
U.S. dollar index which has set new 2005 highs almost every
day this week."
Gold in euros was particularly impressive. It closed on
Friday at an all-time high -- actually above 400 euros per ounce, based on the Nymex close.
This is important, because on both occasions this year when
euro gold has broken into new high ground, considerable
follow-through buying appeared.
Equally impressive was that fact that the gold shares noticed. They've rudely ignored gold's strength this year, but maybe
not this time.
Chartist Martin Pring, a believer in the predictive powers of the sector's equities, assessed the Amex Gold Bugs Index on Thursday in his InterMarket Update as follows:
"The shares typically lead the metal at bottoms, and the Chart shows that they have diverged positively with it in recent weeks. ... If the shares can now rally above the 230 level
on a daily close basis, the odds would favor a successful assault on September's high. In that event, we would expect
the metal to be close on its heels."
(Pring's price point was pinged -- Friday's close was 234.26!)
Gold's friends have dark theories about why gold went down
the previous week. As Bob Bishop of Gold Mining Stock Report
"Q: What's the best time to rob a house? A: When nobody's
home. This was the same rationale behind last week's short
raid on the gold market, timed to coincide with the holiday closure of the Indian markets."
Why gold went back up, though, divides the letters.
The Gartman Letter, for one, has suggested there's been
some purchasing by smaller central banks. And Bill Murphy (LeMetropoleCafe.com) has a correspondent identifying South Korea's central bank.
Those who incline to a macro view, however, had an arresting fact to consider. It was well put by gold veteran James
Turk of the Free Market Gold & Money Report. Turk wants to "berate the Fed for an unbelievable announcement made
this past week. Without explanation, the Fed disclosed:
'On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate.' "
Not unreasonably, Turk concludes:
"Why does the Fed no longer want to report the total quantity
of dollars in circulation? They know what's coming --
massive amounts of dollar creation to fund the worsening
trade and federal government budget deficits. The Fed is
just doing what other government agencies already do when
they don't like the result of their statistical calculations. Like children, they play 'make believe.' "
The Fed might have been more discreet. But is gold watching?