communication de la fed , un tres bon décryptage
| communication de la fed , un tres bon décryptage |
par marie Jeu 17 Aoû 2006, 00:04
communication versus agissements de la fed , un tres bon décryptage synthétique +++
Here's the only report the brain dead reporters at Reuters, Bloomberg, and MarketWatch need. They no longer need suffer the embarrassment of yesterday's "gold falls on higher inflation data", or today's "gold rises on lower inflation data" headlines. This should explain it all to the intelligence-challenged:
Gold traded once again within the $620 - $650 trading band imposed by the Federal Reserve last May. It has been under a not to exceed figure since the marketing arm director, Hank Paulson, was installed as enforcer. Paulson's credentials for price capping are nearly impeccable. He comes from Goldman Sachs, widely considered the best in the business at illegal market activities. Paulson said no immediate plans were in order to lift the lockdown on the price of the metal. While he acknowledged at times it was uncomfortable keeping gold collared and realized it seems even more blatant than before, the risk to inflation expectations was just too severe to not rig the price.
Fighting wars on terrorism, financing endless deficits, skimming billions in fraudulent crony schemes, and other sundry inflationary items is ultimately bearish for the only product the Fed has to offer- its Federal Reserve Note, or FRN. As a result gold, silver, the XAU and HUI, dollar, treasury bonds, the Dow and the S-P have all been kept in mandatory derivative-induced trading bands to maintain an illusion of dollar strength.
In its July FOMC meeting the Fed decided on its new method of measuring inflation. It will be called the dual bookkeeping method. While illegal in corporate accounting, this method is standard in such government programs as Social Security. One external report will show a rate of inflation excluding everything that makes inflation look high, the other internal report will show how may FRN's got printed that month. Experts agree that is the only real way to decide true inflation.
There was dissension however within the Fed board last month over the decision. The St. Louis Fed chief said there was really no way of tallying how many dollars get circulated and therefore it was impossible to state a figure plus or minus 100 billion on any given month. Chairman Bernanke added even publishing an internal document totaling dollars in circulation (formerly known as "M-3") was dangerous and it would be better not to know any specific amount.
Gold is tentatively scheduled to be allowed to trade in a wider band from $720 - $850 later in the fall. After tallying the remaining physical gold available to dump a decision will be made on the final price cap. Many market watchers think with so little real gold left to borrow or lease it might take a price of $1,650 to stabilize capping operations. Others feel since the paper derivatives can in theory be expanded to infinity there will always be an effective capping mechanism. Plus, they point out the S&L and LTCM bailouts gave precedent for future immunity if, and when a total meltdown would ever occur.
At the Comex division of Goldman-Sachs gold last traded at the lower end of the $620- $650 band.
Inscription : 05/02/2005
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| Re: communication de la fed , un tres bon décryptage |
par marie Ven 18 Aoû 2006, 01:26
Cloaked in different language, the following MIR Report goes along the line of what MIDAS has been saying for months and why General Paulson and friends are all over the gold market, artificially suppressing its price. It is all about containing inflation expectations and giving disingenuous signals to the investing public…
MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT - August 17, 2006
More on the Fed
*We have been saying in recent meetings with clients that the man to watch at the Fed is Don Kohn. He is now the Vice-Chair and he is an inflation hawk. He worked with the Maestro and apparently is very highly regarded. In his appearance at the UK House of Commons last month, this was the concluding paragraph in his statement. " Continued strong demand for Dollar assets will be critical to keeping that unwinding smooth and not disruptive. The Federal reserve can contribute by being sure the public remains confident that the purchasing power of their Dollar assets will not erode unexpectedly. As long as inflation expectations remain contained, relatively faster growth of the prices of imported goods for a time would be associated with only a temporary bulge in inflation and would result in a needed change in relative prices. The lesson from the 1970's, however, is that an unchecked or permanent increase in inflation would only feed back adversely on demand for Dollars. Such an unmooring of the anchor of price stability could only elevate the odds on abrupt changes in interest rates and asset prices, instability in the U.S. economy, and disorder in global adjustments."
So there we have it. Inflation expectations are the target. The Dollar must not be allowed to fall too quickly. And if we get a disorderly Dollar market, count on interest rates, financial markets and the economy to move accordingly. All attempts will be made to keep the Dollar from falling too quickly. But long term, fall it must, in order to help address the imbalances to which he refers in the speech in terms of "unwinding." A lower Dollar alone will not solve the problem, but it is certainly part of the solution.
On that same score:
James Mc said it all in last night's Midas. This present take down of gold before the stock market's opening was so predictable... Can't have any excitement in the precious metals sector... It has been a miserable three months, and the next three should be very interesting. Gold is in lockdown mode and the US Indices are bound to soar... All hail the King and his men, all is good in their world. Sickening! I'm not very optimistic for our side at this point, but if by chance the metals break free of their wretched hold, they will never look back after all of this price suppression.
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